Dueling Priorities For Beijing In The Horn Of Africa
| Front Page |
By David Shinn, Joshua Eisenman (China Brief)
Volume 5, Issue 21, October 13, 2005 (The Jamestown Foundation) – The Horn of Africa has become an increasingly important region for China. Of the five countries—Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, and Somalia/Somaliland—that constitute the Horn, Sudan looms especially large. China receives 7 percent of its oil from Sudan, has invested millions in Sudan’s oil sector, and supports Khartoum as it faces international condemnation for its handling of the crisis in Darfur. China’s engagement in tiny Djibouti and the still-struggling state of Somalia and its breakaway sister, Somaliland, is modest. Surprisingly, China’s growing ties with neighboring Ethiopia and Eritrea have thus far escaped extensive review. This analysis seeks to fill that void.
United Nations’ Secretary General Kofi Annan warned on September 13 that fighting between Ethiopia and Eritrea threatens to destroy the fragile peace secured in 2000. He explained the need to extend the UN peacekeeping mission along the Eritrean-Ethiopian border, and in a UN press release called on the “international community to spare no effort in bringing the parties together.” To underscore the stakes, the Eritrean Minister of Finance in an address at the UN General Assembly on September 21 said, “the dark clouds of war are again hanging over my country” and that Eritrea is determined “to defend and preserve its territorial integrity by any means possible.” Juxtaposed with visits by high-level Chinese military delegations to both Ethiopia and Eritrea in August, these warnings underscore why a discussion of Beijing’s relations with the Horn of Africa, especially Ethiopia and Eritrea, is timely.
A Crisis in Ethiopian-Eritrean Relations
Following formal Eritrean independence from Ethiopia in 1993, the two countries initially enjoyed close relations until policy differences and growing tensions culminated in a border incident in May 1998. This incursion by Eritrea, which occurred in the border village of Badme, led to full-scale war, the death of an estimated 100,000 Ethiopian and Eritrean soldiers, and several hundred-thousand displaced persons, mostly Eritrean. The UN Security Council imposed an arms embargo. In 2000, Addis Ababa and Asmara signed an agreement establishing a commission to resolve the border dispute and calling for both forces to withdraw to the positions they held before May 1998. The UN established its Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) with several thousand peacekeeping troops to patrol the security zone along the border of the two countries. In 2003, when the Border Commission issued its ruling, Ethiopia rejected the decision primarily because it awarded Badme to Eritrea. For its part, Eritrea has refused to discuss with Ethiopia any changes in the agreement, arguing that both sides agreed at the outset to accept the Commission’s binding arbitration. Currently, Ethiopia holds Badme and several other small pieces of territory awarded to Eritrea, and both countries have deployed large numbers of troops in the vicinity of the border. This has resulted in increased tension and threatens to undo the fragile peace.
China’s Role in the Horn China has successfully maintained good relations with all five nations in the Horn of Africa. Beijing has supplied millions of dollars in aid and loans, built infrastructure projects, extended preferential trade agreements, sold military equipment, and offered political support for Horn countries at the UN and in other international fora. China has sent medical teams to the region for many years and worked hard to cultivate relations with future leaders by providing scholarships for Africans to study in China. Earlier this year Ethiopia’s Minister of Trade was quoted in The Wall Street Journal as saying, “China has become our most reliable partner” (March 29). For its part, China has received strong support on contentious human rights issues, unwavering adherence to the “One China Policy,” and cultivated profitable trade and investment relationships.
China has formalized its cooperation with the Horn and the rest of Africa through the China-Africa Cooperation Forum. Created in Beijing in 2000, the second ministerial meeting took place in Addis Ababa in 2003. This resulted in the Addis Ababa Action Plan and solidified China’s presence in the region. The third ministerial meeting of the Forum will take place in Beijing in 2006. The Forum provides a venue for Sino-African consultation and dialogue allowing China to extend its soft power throughout the continent. Examples of Chinese programs include a series of training sessions that are intended to develop personal ties and good will.
Trade and Investment
Through its trade promotion and investment programs, China has become one of the Horn of Africa’s most important partners. Beijing has supported economic development through low-cost loans, debt relief, and preferential tariffs. Investment projects, many of them on commercial terms, are also encouraged to extend China’s economic reach throughout the region. Sudan and Ethiopia have been the biggest beneficiaries of Chinese investment. Other than its substantial oil imports from Sudan, China imports mostly raw materials such as coffee, hides, skins, and oil seeds from countries in the Horn. China’s top exports to the region are textiles, manufactured goods, machinery, chemicals, medical products, and building materials. According to Chinese statistics, China’s trade with the region totaled over $2.8 billion in 2004. By the first six months of 2005, it had already exceeded $2 billion.
China’s Trade with the Horn of Africa (in millions USD)*
*All figures from China’s General Administration of Customs as reported by the Xinhua Economic News Agency.
With the exception of oil-rich Sudan, China’s trade with the region is heavily weighted in Beijing’s favor. In 2004, Chinese exports to Ethiopia made up over 93 percent of their bilateral trade. In the first half of 2005,
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