Ethiopia: International Relations And Defense

10/25/2005 EIU ViewsWire Ethiopia

COUNTRY BACKGROUND

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The dispute with Eritrea

After taking power in 1991, the EPRDF government assumed a leading role in regional relations. Several regional diplomatic initiatives were conducted in conjunction with the TPLF's erstwhile rebel allies, the Eritrean People's Liberation Front (EPLF). These included negotiations over the Sudanese and Somali conflicts, notably within the context of the regional Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD; see Regional overview: Membership of regional organizations). However, the Eritrean-Ethiopian diplomatic alliance came to an abrupt end in May 1998, when a trade and border disagreement escalated rapidly into a full-scale war.

From allies to enemies

During the struggle to overthrow the regime of Ethiopia 's former Marxist dictator, Colonel Mengistu, the rebels were led by the TPLF. Despite occasional disputes, the TPLF worked closely with the EPLF. The latter was fighting for the independence of the state of Eritrea , which was annexed by Haile Selassie in 1962. Both sets of leaders were from the same Tigrinya-speaking area that straddles Ethiopia and Eritrea . The two leaderships remained close after Eritrean independence in 1993, but this relationship became a source of resentment for many non-Tigrayans in Ethiopia , who were suspicious that their leaders' Tigrayan allegiance was overriding their allegiance to Ethiopia .

Eritrea introduced its own currency, the nakfa, in 1997, breaking the existing de facto currency union. Disagreement over Eritrea 's exchange-rate regime and subsequent bilateral trade relations then contributed to mounting tension during early 1998. However, both the ferocity of the fighting that ensued and the vitriolic war of words reflect deep-seated notions of prestige and national pride. The conflict ended in December 2002, but the two countries remain at loggerheads over the delimitation and demarcation of their common frontier. Although renewed conflict is not immediately in prospect, neither is a durable solution, and tension is likely to remain high in the medium term.

The war with Eritrea

Chronology

May 6th 1998 : Fighting breaks out around a disputed border post near Badme, which Eritrea seizes.

June 1998-January 1999: Both sides build up their military capabilities. The Organization of African Unity (OAU) proposes an interim settlement, which is accepted by Ethiopia .

February-March 1999: In renewed offensives Ethiopia recaptures Badme; Eritrea accepts the OAU peace plan. Subsequent battles are inconclusive.

May-June 2000: Following ten months of intensive but inconclusive inter-national diplomacy, Ethiopia launches a new offensive and recaptures all the territory that it lost to Eritrea in mid-1998. Ethiopian troops occupy large areas of central and western Eritrea . Eritrea accepts an amended settlement agreement, allowing for a ceasefire and the introduction of an OAU-UN buffer force on Eritrean soil.

December 12th 2000 : A formal peace agreement is signed in Algiers .

Ties with Djibouti increase in importance

The loss of access to Eritrea 's ports made Ethiopia 's relationship with tiny Djibouti critically important. Two-thirds of Ethiopia 's merchandise trade passed through the Eritrean port of Assab before May 1998. Overnight, this trade—including all of Ethiopia 's petroleum imports —switched to Djibouti 's port. Economic ties between Ethiopia and Djibouti have since grown closer, with most of their disagreements, over port transit regulations and fees, for example, having been settled during meetings of their joint commission.

Terrorism spotlight on Somalia

Ethiopia shares a long southern and eastern border with Somalia (and breakaway Somaliland ), and Ethiopia 's sparsely populated Somali region is inhabited by ethnic Somalis. Ethiopia 's relationship with Somalia has always been complex because Ethiopia fears that the rise of an ethnic Somali nation would threaten its own territorial integrity. As a result, Ethiopia has covertly manipulated Somali factions to its own advantage, and has particularly backed the breakaway entities of Somaliland and Puntland. The new president of Somalia , Abdillahi Yusuf Ahmed (the former Puntland president), who was elected by the Nairobi-based parliament in exile in October 2004, has a close relationship with Mr. Meles. However, although Mr. Ahmed seeks the return of Somaliland , Ethiopia is likely to give covert backing to the breakaway entity.

The tripartite alliance between Ethiopia , Sudan and Yemen

Ethiopia 's regional diplomacy has in recent years focused partly on building stronger ties with Sudan and Yemen in order to isolate Eritrea . Following an initial meeting between the leaders of Ethiopia , Sudan and Yemen in 2002, the leaders signed a charter formalizing tripartite co-operation at a second gathering in Addis Ababa in December 2003. All three countries cite Eritrea as the main source of regional instability, although Yemen and Sudan reject the accusation that the alliance is expressly anti-Eritrea. As if to underline this, the three countries have promised to work towards a free-trade area and to set up a joint business council. Bilateral relations with Sudan improved rapidly in 2003: Ethiopia agreed to settle a long-running border dispute and hand back land that it had occupied for seven years, while Sudan offered improved access to Port Sudan . Ethiopia 's relations with Egypt are sometimes unsettled owing to disputes over Ethiopia 's use of water from the Blue Nile . (See Regional overview: Membership of regional organizations for information on organizations of which Ethiopia is a member.)

US-Ethiopia ties enhanced in wake of terror attacks

The war with Eritrea in 1998-2000 strained US-Ethiopian relations, but the situation was transformed after the September 11th 2001 terrorist attacks on the US , when Ethiopia emerged as a key ally in the war against global Islamic terrorism, particularly as a result of its proximity to lawless Somalia . Military and intelligence co-operation has increased, and joint operations have been undertaken by Ethiopian forces and the 1,800-strong US Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa , based in Djibouti . The US is also training Ethiopian forces in counter-terror tactics. Bilateral relations are threatened to some extent by the Resolution of the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border Dispute Act of 2003, currently working its way through Congress (the US legislature), which threatens sanctions for non-compliance with the EEBC's border ruling. However, under the Bush administration at least, strategic concerns may take precedence over the UN peace process.

Post-war demobilization

The EPRDF doubled the size of its armed forces to fight the 1998-2000 war against Eritrea , mobilizing an estimated 250,000 men. Casualty figures are estimated at 123,000 Ethiopians killed, principally in the two major assaults in February-June 1999 and May-June 2000. The post-war period has been marked by lower defense spending and demobilization (unlike in Eritrea ), and the size of the army fell to an estimated 180,000 in 2004.

SOURCE: Country Profile

Copyright © 2005 Economist Intelligence Unit

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