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By Ahmed Hashi (Dhimbiil)
Somali Landers are watching a political opera un-fold as acts 1 of an orchestrated political game of musical chairs begins in earnest in the corridors of power in the capital of Somaliland, Hargeisa. Power, to paraphrase none other than that erstwhile freedom lover Fredrick Douglas never cedes anything without a demand. It has become clear to the President that the large patronage cabinet that continuously drains the meagre resources of the state of Somaliland cannot be sustained given the underlying change in the political dispensation.
The clamor from inside and outside including the opposition, and the realities of the coming parliamentary elections are now pushing the statistical equations of power into hitherto unknown realms. In a word, the check and balance system, the political party system and the coalition in the ruling party are putting enough pressure on the political landscape to move politics in Somaliland towards a direction I believe that has yet to be experienced in this country.
Stakeholders in the political system are getting ready to fill the legislature and therefore hold the executive to the powers of parliament. The people I believe are best served when this check and balance system begins to work, and begins to work ultimately, in their favor. The campaign is already starting; you can hear the parliamentary elections being an issue in the spoken words of our politicians. Everyone understands that the political party that wins a majority in parliament will ultimately wield tremendous power over the political events of this country. A quick look into the constitution brings much sobriety to anyone with ambitions to be a politician and fear in the heart of the presidency: this is the one place that can impeach the President, refuse to acknowledge ministers, and by a two thirds majority force a sitting president to appear in parliament; powerful stuff!
The President and the Presidents men know as much and the contest is on, the opposition knows as much and are braying for a chance at the president’s jugular. The people of Somaliland are also watching and if the past is something to go by, we are in for some interesting times: as the Chinese are wont to say, ‘may you live in Interesting times’.
At the center of this and other political issues sit the three wise men: Abdillahi Duale, Awil, and the infamous Minister of Internal Affairs. The brain behind the outfit is the Minister of Finance, the strategist is the Minister of Information and the enforcer is the Infamous Minister of internal Affairs Ishmael Yare. These three men constitute the ‘the three wise men’ and are at the heart of the kitchen cabinet. These men are the most powerful axis in Somaliland and I believe – and I am putting this on the record – that the three will not survive the coming purge in Somaliland. The President is exactly in the same situation as President Moi a year after he took power and the axe will fall simply because the President cannot be the President with such raw power burning under his Presidency, and these are the reasons why.
A year after appointing a herd of yes men and UDUB’s power brokers from the hamlets and regions of Somaliland, President Rayale has played the political game in Somaliland with the same one two step that the former President of Kenya Daniel.T.Arap Moi did when he came to power.
The President has developed strong political relations with powerful Ministers from powerful constituencies.
The opposition has claimed – albeit without much evidence – the President was able to cut the town of Las Anod from the political map including eastern Sanag – causing the opposition to miss much votes in those heavily pro-opposition areas.
The President has remained silent while these powerful Ministers have done the talking, exactly what President Moi did during his first term.
The President has only said something calming when the explosiveness of the issue required him to do so; this is exactly what President Moi did.
The President has played it simple and innocent, not interfering much with the day to day running of the government; this is exactly what President Moi did.
The President has maneuvered to win public sympathy so that whenever something goes wrong it is the three wise men who are blamed, this exactly what President Moi did.
He has already gotten rid of his own Charles Njonjo, (look up this name Charles Njonjo you will not be disappointed) the former Secretary General of the Party now in the Kulmiye board of Directors,
Removed Ahmed Yussuf Duale another contender for the Presidency in UDUB.
Brought in new power brokers to neutralize those already there;
Appointed a foreign Minister who has no raw political power of her own (a lesson leant from the late President).
And finally, announced that the cabinet was “too large” code words for what in the old Soviet Union was called a “purge”.
The making of this President is not over, he has over three and half years left in his mandate and already heavy political maneuvers are in the oven. What comes out of the oven will be new men who have yet to develop their own raw political power and thus create factions within the government as there is now in the Cabinet. Those Ministers from the Egal government in this government are clearly in danger as the President begins to root his own political style with time and patience – this is exactly what President Moi did. It seems that the political one two step is moving towards some kind of showdown. The President’s reply no doubt will be “I did it for the people”.
This president seems to have finally realized that he is in charge, and that
dear reader is of some tremendous import. There is one thing that a
politician, particularly when he is the President, should never do: and that
is, showing your right political hand when giving with the left political
hand. The President seems, at least in my opinion to have arranged an
organized political situation so as to get rid of many politicians from the
past administration. I believe the three wise men’s days are numbered and it
is as it should be or President Rayale will end up saying like Caesar in
Shakespeare as the daggers entered his heart to the most unlikely of
conspirators, Brutus - ‘e tu brutes’? (You too Brutus?)
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