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Somaliweyn Must Be Reinvented To Be Of Plausible Value In Today’s Politics!
By Noah Arre
The fifteenth and probably last Somalia Reconciliation Conference is in its last days in Mbagathi, Kenya and come July first 2004, Mogadishu should form a government or else it is doomed forever!
According to the latest reports, IGAD countries are this time pressuring all participants asking them to reach a lasting solution and form a government. And punitive measures will be taken against anyone or group that resists agreed upon resolutions. But had it not been that the world in general and hosting Kenya in particular, which took the brunt of the 1998 terrorist bombing in Nairobi in which over 200 people died and thousands injured, worried from al Qa’ida operatives that is believed to have taken refuge in stateless Southern Somalia, this conference too, would have been dead months ago.
In fact, according to the latest reports, talks are now going smooth and even Mr. Hussain Aideed, one of Mogadishu’s most powerful warlords, who was briefly detained for unrelated issue, was immediately released to insure that the conference is not interrupted.
However, the success of this conference, it seems, requires that each and everyone concerned must take a pre-dispensed dose… a tranquilizer of one form or another even though that itself may not and will not guarantee anything for the following reasons:
First, apart from the above reason, this conference is not and will not be different from its predecessors and tell me why one should think otherwise and be optimistic especially since the same people who had always ratified and then annulled all previous conferences resolutions are the main actors playing the drama.
Secondly, it is too difficult to understand how and why the reconciliation conference brokered by Djibouti, one of their closest friends, had failed and this one will not. Or is it because since all delegates are humiliated for keeping them hungry and/or evicted from hotels that they will and should accept whatever is imposed on them? May be!
Interestingly, this conference, initiated, refereed and collectively supported by “ALL” IGAD countries, is chaired by Kenya though both Kenya and Ethiopia, two main players, were from the sixties, threatened by Somalia in its quest of “Somaliweyn”. The “territorial integrity” of both countries, at least as the world knows it, is also at odds with the Somali national charter that stipulates that both NFD of Kenya and Western Somalia of Ethiopia must one day become part of Somaliweyn. Even poor Djibouti is unsafe from Somaliweyn dream and a clear sign is the five-pointed star that is embedded in the Somali national flag. That is why Somalia overtly and covertly declared and waged wars of liberation against both Kenya and Ethiopia hoping to liberate and annex ethnic Somali inhabited territories in both countries to make ensure that the Somaliweyn dream is realized.
Today, the naivety of many Somalis is that they fail to understand that even Daniel arab Moi, former president of Kenya and a veteran politician of that country, firmly believes that Somali nationalism is a true threat to the existence of his country. That is why he once said, “we will not let them (Somalis) come together again and threaten our existence once more.” Ironically, supporters of Somaliweyn have placed their whole destiny in the hands of those who had clearly expressed their bitterness over Somaliweyn and intend to dismantle it.
But for now, lets assume that some miracle happens and that a Somali government and its parliament are formed, the questions that immediately come to mind are what will come next?
1. Will a stable, peaceful and fledgling democracy come to exist? We hope so!
2. Will a comprehensive national policy of forgetting and forgiving about the past similar to that of South Africa develop? Hopefully so!
3. Or will the usual Somali clan-based division and differences again explode, grow wider and finally prove deadly? We hope not so!
Meantime, it is unfortunate that the once noble Somaliweyn cause is now defunct and the few who cry foul and shed crocodile tears for it (Somaliweyn in its old form) have one and only one thing in mind, to deceive poor Somalis so that they can come to power because they know that is their last hope and only card to play.
Consequently, it is worthy to divide these die-hard Somaliweyn advocates into five groups:
1. Group One are those who ruled the country using the noble Somaliweyn cause to their advantage and without being challenged in their governance as all others were nostalgic, obsessed with unity and nationalism sacrificing both blood and soul. This group is sad over its demise and will do everything in their power to realize it!
2. Group Two are other former government officials who are disgruntled over loss of privileges. Privileges that due to corruption, lack of transparency and accountability, helped them acquire middle class Western standard of life including excellent education. It is this group that helplessly lives in desperation, dreaming of its days of glory and nights of drums!
3. Group Three are those who, during the civil war and its subsequent anarchy and chaos, illegally acquired massive wealth (land, properties and money) and are therefore, too worried to lose them knowing questions will be raised. This group in fact feels threatened and needs to use Somaliweyn as a camouflage. A camouflage that hopefully will offer a new South African type of forgiving and forgetting. One that will “in shaa Allah” ignore reparation payments. However, this group prefers keeping the status quo to nationhood!
4. Group Four are those who will certainly be impeached at international courts for committing crimes against humanity should Balkan type of genocidal crime investigations take place and its perpetrators pursued and accordingly punished! This group has no intention to change the status quo but sheds crocodile tears for poor Somalis to believe them! In fact, no one in this group intends to settle any thing short of the top job!
5. Group Five are those who still naively believe that, some sort of Somalinimo in its old form will hopefully come back one day. However, they are a minority but are sincerely championing for Somaliweyn which surprisingly is only the North to stay with the South. Unfortunately, they fail to realize that the Somaliweyn they preach and staunchly defend irritates and alienates even their closest sister and ally, Djibouti!
In conclusion, the Mbagathi Conference outcome will be as follows:
1. Because of international pressure, some sort of government of American style will be proclaimed and installed in paper.
2. The portfolio of the president will be given to the H clan.
3. That of the vice presidency will go to M clan.
4. And that of the Speaker will be given to D & M clan
5. And poor others again have no voice and no choice!
6. However, some positions will be kept reserved “for noisy Northerners”. I know I will get nothing because, “by birth I am Faqash.” But whether “some renegades who are by birth Mujahids” will get some thing remains to be seen!
Then Finally:
The international community present at Mbagathi, will proclaim the conference a success and a mission accomplished!
But, unfortunately, such a government will be an Arta type of TNG or Taliska Ku Meel Gadhka Ah.
A few days of celebrations, trumpeting, traditional Somali weeroweero, botor, zeilici etc. dances punctuated by patriotic poems and songs will be followed.
And finally, that government will be shipped to Mogadishu patted in the back and “xabaal iyo ninkeedii loo kala teg!”
Unfortunately, the devil is in the details. An American World War II type of European Marshal Plan is required for Somalia to resuscitate. A plan which neither the Arab World nor the West will offer! Poor Africa is too poor to give any! And the result is sorrowfully, back to square one!
But a South African type of forgiving and forgetting is necessary; a sanctuary which sorrowfully, neither the oppressor is willing to give nor the oppressed is willing to take. And unfortunately, the quagmire will continue and only God knows till when and what is next!
Poor Somalis, please let us give respect and praise to whom it is due; Somaliland passed this tough test, thirteen years ago with honors and without any foreign help! Gaalka dil gartiisana sii!
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