"I Am Less Optimistic About The Situation In Somalia Except For Somaliland"
Washington DC, Feb 24, 2003 (The East African/All Africa Global Media via COMTEX) - David Shinn worked in Africa for 17 years as a US ambassador and as an officer in Foreign Service. He also directed the Office of East African Affairs at the State Department, and helped coordinate US relief efforts in Somalia in 1992 and 1993. He currently teaches courses in African affairs at George Washington University. He spoke to Special Correspondent Kevin J. Kelly on the Kenya government's anti-corruption campaign and the prospects for peace and stability in the region.
How about the Kibaki team's policies regarding East Africa? Do you think they'll be substantially different from Moi's?
There won't be any significant difference regarding East Africa. I'm glad to see Gen Lazarus Sumbeiywo is continuing his efforts to mediate the conflict in Sudan. I'm convinced that Kenya will continue to exercise leadership in regard to Somalia as well as Sudan.
Kenya is the only country in IGAD that is able to do this now. It has the ear as well as the respect of all the countries in IGAD.
Do you share the optimism others have expressed concerning a peace settlement in Sudan?
Positive things have certainly happened, and I'm optimistic that they will continue to happen. But there are sure to be setbacks as well. It's not going to be a smooth process.
If the majority of members of both warring sides agree it is in their interest to end the civil war, then perhaps we will see peace. But it's sure to be a long, hard slog.
Do you see any prospect for stability in Somalia?
I'm much less optimistic about the situation in Somalia, except for Somaliland, which is doing quite well, thank you. Civil society does seem to want peace in Somalia, but it's the guys with the guns and the militias who will ultimately decide whether there's going to be peace or not.
Is it likely that Somalia will be split into several parts?
I think that eventually some sort of federal structure will be put in place. There's obviously going to be reluctance to move in that direction, but it's probably the best way to bring about peace and stability. I don't believe that Somalia is going to remain a failed state forever.
How do you assess the role of al Qa’eda in the region? Do you think it now has a base in coastal communities in Kenya?
Al Itihaad clearly did have a base at Ras Kamboni during the 1990s. But the United Nations inspected the area after September 11 and found that it had been cleared out.
Al Itihaad does have some kind of connection with al Qa’eda. In my opinion, however, it's not been satisfactorily proven yet that there are close links with Osama bin Laden. I'm reluctant to suggest there is an al Qa’eda base anywhere in Somalia. I've seen no proof that there is.
It was part of my responsibilities while working at the US embassy in Kenya in the mid-1960s to stay in touch with what was happening on the Coast.
Some of the communities on the Coast do appear to have become more radicalized. I don't think al Qa’eda has a base there, but there are probably links to al Qa’eda among some people on the Coast.
What will happen on the Coast and elsewhere in the region if the United States does attack Iraq?
There will probably be demonstrations and such, but the real damage for the United States will be more subterranean - behind the scenes. There will be a much greater concern about US policies. There will be a negative impact on the United States' ability to man-oeuvre there in the future.
Home | Contact us | Links | Archives