"The fact that Somalia's quarrelling elite has not been able to make such a cynical bargain among themselves is itself a puzzle. Somalia is, in an odd way, a failure among failed states."

The country disintegrated into anarchy after former dictator Mohammed Siad Barre was toppled in 1991 as clans pressured by famine and political turmoil launched battles for territory.

The country now comprises two self-declared enclaves in the north and a patchwork of quarrelling clan fiefdoms in the south.

These days Somalia watchers explore other reasons why the nation of up to 10 million remains in the grip of lawlessness.

Key businessmen and politicians, they say, have learned to thrive in such conditions. And crucially, each has the ability by himself, or in alliance with just one or two other "spoilers", to sabotage promising peace initiatives.

"Unless you can make peace more profitable, and war more risky, chances are things will continue the way they have been," said Somalia expert Andre Le Sage.

In the early 1990s, warlords were the main players, making fortunes from the diversion of foreign aid.

But as aid to the violent south has diminished, those opportunities have vanished. Also, financial gains from the capture of land in inter-clan conflict were mostly exhausted long ago.
In recent years a new breed of warlord-businessmen has emerged with the acumen to run quasi-legitimate ventures.

These days, to earn money, it is usually not enough for the original warlords to apply the skills they know -- piracy, kidnapping and extortion. They must also pursue tie-ups with the new business elite, whose security tend to include better gunmen and weaponry than the warlords' own private armies.

A report by a U.N. panel of experts on Somalia said in March that several warlords had acquired a new commercial sideline -- taking cash from Western intelligence agencies in return for providing dubious information about "terrorists" in Somalia.

Paradoxically, the businesses now run by the new entrepreneurs such as transport and construction would benefit from the kind of "paper" state that would be created by a cabal of politicians seeking international legitimacy, experts say.

Up for grabs would be everything from development loans to rental on property let out to diplomatic missions, not to mention a wide array of reconstruction contracts.

TOO RISKY

"(Such a government) would dramatically increase the spoils over which political predators could feast. But it would remain unable to enforce the rule of law at a level that would threaten the illicit interests of this elite," wrote Menkhaus.

While some might benefit from a more stable central power, they cannot be certain it will be an arrangement to their benefit. So even a nominal government is a step too far.

"For Mogadishu businessmen who made their fortunes in a setting of complete state collapse, the transition to an environment of state governance -- even a paper state -- proved too risky to accept," wrote Menkhaus.

"Embracing a state building agenda constitutes a leap of faith they are currently not willing to accept."

An Arab-backed transitional national government (TNG) was set up in 2000 but controlled only a few streets in Mogadishu.

The TNG's friendship with Arab states earned it the wrath of neighbouring Ethiopia, which saw it as an unacceptable beachhead for Islamic radicalism in the Horn. As the TNG's star waned, it was abandoned by most of its businessmen friends.

The TNG mandate expired in August and factions at the talks in Kenya have yet to agree a successor administration.
 

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