The achievement of international recognition is not a simple process for which there exists a clearly defined set of requirements to be fulfilled, a blueprint that can be followed faithfully from point A (non-recognition) to point B (recognition). In the past era of competing geopolitical blocs, recognition could be achieved relatively easily by playing one bloc against the other, as many dictators and coup leaders (including Afweyne) discovered to their benefit. In the present uni-polar world where one superpower holds sway over the entire world, this process is more difficult. Nowadays, it is necessary to assemble groups of nations to support the bid of the acceding territory to the community of nations. Thus, East Timor, Bosnia Herzegovina, Croatia, Eritrea et al had their sponsors (principally the EU and USA) who ensured their accession to the community of nations as full members. The case of Somaliland is made more difficult by the fact that the country from which we have seceded no longer exists as a state, so there is no legal authority from which we can reclaim our nationhood.

Nevertheless, it is possible to outline the make up of the coalition of nations we need to assemble in support of our bid for recognition if it to have a chance of success. Firstly, we need to secure the support of key members of the African Union (AU) since we are, after all, located on the African continent. Secondly, we need to secure the support of the EU, or key members of that alliance, and finally we need the support of the US which is the prevailing superpower.

Although it would be desirable to have the support of the Arab League, or of some of its key members, I have purposely not included this bloc. Arab governments have clearly demonstrated their hostility to the existence of Somaliland not only by ignoring it in favour of the “factions” that are responsible for the continued misery of the south, but by actively working to destroy it through the embargo on its livestock exports. With respect to Asia, it is likely, in view of the geographic distance and lack of historic political & economic ties, that most Asian countries will be guided in their response to Somaliland’s bid for recognition by the responses of countries which have closer ties with us, as well as by the response of the Western Powers.

Relations between Somaliland and the EU, and its individual members, as well as with the US are proceeding slowly but adequately. It is now generally accepted that Somaliland has demonstrated the will, determination, cohesion, stability and political maturity required for international recognition. The preoccupation of the major international players with international terrorism and the war in Iraq, has relegated the issue of Somaliland’s recognition far down the list of priorities on the international political and diplomatic agenda. However, the safe haven and ready arms bazaar that lawless Somalia affords Al Qaeda and its allies have placed the problems presented by the disintegration of the erstwhile Somali Republic firmly in the center of the war on terror. Any effort to address Somalia’s position in the designs and calculus of international terror, must perforce address the issue of Somaliland and its recognition, and there are indications that the US and EU are beginning to focus more clearly on the resolution of the Somali question. For this reason it is essential that we examine the thrust of our foreign policy carefully with a view to ensuring that it is best suited to achieve our central objective.

Since 1991 the principal focus of Somaliland’s diplomacy has been directed at the establishment of close and cordial relations with Ethiopia and securing its support for Somaliland’s recognition. Ethiopia was properly the central focus of these efforts in view of several obvious reasons. Firstly, Ethiopia was the base from which our liberation movement, the SNM, launched its military campaign against the faqash regime of Afweyne, thus it was only natural for Somaliland to redeem that debt with friendly relations. Secondly, landlocked Ethiopia with its population of some 65 million people is our largest neighbour and the economic future of Somaliland is inextricably tied to trade and commerce with Ethiopia. Thirdly, the federal constitution and system instituted by the EPRDF government in Ethiopia provided autonomy and self government for the Somali inhabitants of eastern Ethiopia, thereby removing the raison d’etre for the historic enmity between the Somali people and Ethiopia. This new constitutional and institutional arrangement also underpinned the independence of Eritrea and provides the conceptual framework for Ethiopian support for the secession of Somaliland from Somalia. Finally, Ethiopia is the host of the AU and it has historically played a central role in continental African politics and diplomacy. Ethiopia continues to play a pivotal role in African politics as evidenced by its sponsorship and championing of the New Economic Program for African Development (NEPAD). In short, Ethiopia is the ideal sponsor of Somaliland’s recognition and we succeeded in securing their support to play this crucial role on our behalf.

Over the last year and a half, however, it appears that the focus of Somaliland’s diplomacy has shifted from Ethiopia to Djibouti and that our relations with the former have cooled somewhat, while our relations with the latter appear to have warmed. A thaw in Somaliland-Djibouti relations was certainly needed since relations between the two countries were at a historic nadir. In addition, the fact that it was Somaliland which initiated the thaw is to its credit as evidence of its genuine desire for friendly relations with its neighbours, as well as a demonstration of its political maturity.

After all, it was Djibouti which initiated the animosity by so vehemently opposing Somaliland’s independence and insisting that Somaliland accept the sovereignty of the TNG, the stillborn child of the Arta Conference, for which Djibouti acted as midwife. Somaliland has endeavoured to establish cordial ties with Djibouti and President Rayalle has visited Djibouti twice, while several Ministerial delegations have also been to Djibouti in search of friendship and cooperation in a variety of fields. In return, we have seen no formal announcements or practical steps taken by Djibouti to evidence goodwill and fraternal relations with Somaliland.

The impression that the ascendancy of Somaliland-Djibouti relations is at the expense of Somaliland-Ethiopia relations is further evidenced by the lack of progress on various initiatives announced by the two countries some two years ago, e.g. opening of branches of the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia in Somaliland and rehabilitation of Berbera Port to enable greater utilization by Ethiopia. This perception, whether true or not, is extremely damaging for Somaliland in its quest for international recognition. Djibouti can in no way substitute for Ethiopia as the principal sponsor of Somaliland’s bid for recognition, even if it should wish to do so (and the recent interview given by President Gelle to IRIN would belie any such desire on Djibouti’s part). Further, Djibouti does not have the diplomatic weight and standing of Ethiopia in African politics, nor does it have Ethiopia’s influence and standing in relation to the USA or the EU. In addition, Djibouti cannot substitute for Ethiopia as a trading partner for Somaliland for obvious reasons. Indeed Djibouti views the development of Berbera Port with some considerable apprehension as a prospective competitor for the import/export business of Ethiopia.

Accordingly, it is imperative that Somaliland renew the focus of its foreign policy upon the relationship with Ethiopia and restore this track to its rightful place as the core plank of its diplomacy. This is not to advocate ignoring or belittling cordial and fraternal relations with Djibouti, but the correction of a misdirection in our foreign policy that could have very adverse consequences the achievement of our central objective. The coming year is likely to be a watershed in Somaliland’s odyssey towards its admission to the community of nations as full member, and it is absolutely crucial that mistakes and missteps are avoided in charting this journey at this late date. Toward that end, it is essential that the government of Somaliland urgently review its foreign policy and restore our relations with Ethiopia to its proper place in our diplomacy.
 

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