The Presidency Of Somaliland & 2007‎‎

By Ahmed Hashi Dhimbiil

Qolo-qoladan loo degey Kama iman dad-weynaha; Ragga dacarta huriyaa Waa kooxo duumo ah; Daadihiyeyaashiyo
Maamulkay ku duran yiin. Qaar baa diktoorro ah
Digriigoodu madhan yahay; Qaar baa durbaano leh
Oo daacaddii jaray. Darna waa hagoogtaan, Waa deniyo waaweyn.
Isku soo dabbaaloo, Waa dabaqad maal jecel;
Waxa loo dig leeyey, Dhididkayga dahabka ah
Sidii loo dudubin laa. Afartaa docdaa mari;
Dugsi ma leh qabyaaladi; Waa dararta baahida;
Waa astaanta dib-u-dhaca; Waa boog dalooshoo
Dadka maanka kaga taal. Dirxi qudhun ku nool iyo
Waxa fadha nin daalin ah – Gaariye, poet, philosopher.

Presidential elections are slated for 2007 and politicians are known for thinking ahead and being quite visionary when it comes to being an incumbent and considering how to retain political office – in this case the Presidency of Somaliland. Political observers in this country have yet to make some preliminary assessments about these elections and I believe now is the time to begin to understand what the political future holds and how it will affect our country.

The political party UDUB has been able to win the Presidency/Parliament for two reasons only. First, what I have called the ‘coalition of the willing’ stands at about 40-45 percent of the voting public, this vote was reduced during the Parliamentary elections because the opposition was to some extent able to send their message of corruption and mismanagement of the public trough by the current administration.

Secondly, UDUB has been able to really move grass roots politics by relying heavily on UDUB’s Big Men/Ministers who, arguably, produced strong results in Sanaag & Togdheer, where the opposition, particularly Kulmiye, was expected to make serious gains over the ruling party. This opposition’s hope has not materialized across the country given the parliamentary results where individual parties are concerned: a combination of influence peddling, money and clan politics being at the centre of this electoral ebb and flow. But this is to anticipate.

Therefore, UDUB has kept hold of it political constituency firmly and contrary to opposition expectations, UDUB has not lost substantial sections of its voting constituency: this posses serious political questions for the opposition, particularly Kulmiye, which has been unable to effectively sideline UDUB in the last three elections in Somaliland . Contrary to expectations around the country and in the diasporas including views by many commentators, KULMIYE's 29 seat margin is widely seen as a disappointment prompting an immediate rapprochement with UCID whose political views previously were not warm to one sides of the political divide. Moreover, UDUB has painfully felt this rapprochement and the President himself is privately and publicly assessing this drop in support within the coalition of the willing given the current political understanding between the Presidency, the cabinet, and the party.

UDUB’s political machine has been shown to be wobbly, and the combination of political factions within the party has been shown not be as strong as hitherto thought, particularly with the surge of support for UCID around the constituencies that the ruling party expected support during the parliamentary elections.

This trend is very worrisome for UDUB and for right reason, UDUB’s coalition is country wide and was built by the late President Egal, and the Presidents rise to power is partly due to this amalgamation of these very different political strains in UDUB – unlike Kulmiye which is more coherent given its closeness of political views within its camp. The fusion of these powerful streams within UDUB supported the current President during the transition for simple political calculations: the former President did not groom a successor with the wide national reach that he had, therefore, to remain in government the current President, leading no faction of his own within the party immediately and obviously became the choice where, generally speaking, the party coalesced around. However, these powerful streams within the party have now to contend with the President himself who has also now cemented his power in the party.

This I believe does not portend well for the party, simply because intra party conflict may destabilize the party and perhaps send these factions into newer political amalgamations given the lack of a serious leader with a known political signature. UDUB’s propensity towards fission is greater as opposed to fusion within the party. Sillanyo, the Chairman of Kulmiye being a ready example of this type of leader in our political parties whose political signature is stamped all over Kulmiye.

As well, it is not out of the question to suggest that voter in Somaliland is not as un-sophisticated as hitherto believed, there seems to have been some strategic voting for parliament even though these voters gave UDUB tremendous support during the Presidential elections. Voters in Somaliland seem to send contradictory messages to the political elite; an important thread though running through out these political outcomes is the message of balance and the continuity of the peace agenda in Somaliland .

Given these broad and general outlines, what can we make of the coming elections and can we generally place signposts with regards to future political re-alignments in Somaliland ? What are the intra-party tensions, inter-party strengths, and personality contests particularly within UDUB as well as Kulmiye although to a lesser extent, and finally who are the leading lights in the coming Presidential elections and how credible are their respective candidacies? Let me start with Kulmiye the leading opposition party in Somaliland, many will agree, some may not, that there exists an electoral obstacle for Kulmiye with regards to conquering the highest seat in the land.

Three elections have proved beyond reasonable doubt that substantial portions of the population consistently votes for the ruling party and given the “swing” nature of our politics it is not un-intelligent to ask why Kulmiye, with a charismatic statesman and a bona fide leader cannot overcome this electoral obstacle in Somaliland. In fact, it is, not as well un-intelligent to say that, Kulmiye should have won all three elections with a landslide given the party’s play in the land and its deep knowledge of the political realities in Somaliland . Let me be brave as to offer one or two general observations as to why this party has consistently failed to replace the ruling party from the top of the food chain.

I believe the party’s commitment and reliance on the role of the struggle of the SNM is a legitimate political strategy to take as a political party, however, I believe this political program and rhetoric to win the hearts and minds of the overwhelming majority of the so called ‘beelaha SNM’ has failed and must be replaced with a more inclusive and national strategy given the results of the last three elections. KULMIYE's reliance on that message during the presidential elections was a legitimate political strategy and any observer of the political environment of Somaliland would immediately agree that this strategy would win the numbers game. Unfortunately, and clearly, the message did not play positively and this has much to do with the divisions post-SNM in these so called “beelaha SNM’. As well, the message of “struggle” and “halgaan” did not play, astonishingly, on the electorate who opted instead to elect the current President, who was un-tested and in-experienced.

During the parliamentary elections it was clear that this message was toned down in preference of balancing the parliament with the executive, this message seemed to have worked very well as the opposition saw its fortunes rise in parliament to the detriment of the ruling party.

I believe that the only way that the ruling party can be dislodged from the Presidency is the coming together of the opposition party as a ‘ruling coalition’ in a larger party that can contest the polls in two years time more effectively and with a new message of change.

UDUB’s political hold on power can be dislodged I believe, if the two political parties amalgamate making Kulmiye a truly ‘big tent’ for the coming elections. This strategy may have drawbacks, but if the current chairman of Kulmiye intends to win the Presidency in 2007 I believe this strategy will take him there whatever the political consequences for the ‘hawks’ in his party who would rather give up the Presidency than to water down the message of “struggle” as well as purge factions within the party that adhere to this political line.

Finally, winning political power is the overriding political fact of multi-party politics and discovering where and when and how to do this is the urgent political task of Kulmiye. There are political facts to consider within Kulmiye as well, the chairman is part of the old guard and his political horizon is fast disappearing, Sillanyo deserves to be the President of Somaliland, 2007 is the last chance for him to contest the Presidency given his age and energy. Every political strategy must be considered to elect this statesman by the party even if it causes major rifts in the party. As well, building a coalition within the opposition may include substantially changing the real politic within Kulmiye which includes a radically changed party that is seen as a “big tent” for all political stripes in country. Securing 55 to 70 percent of the 2007 electoral elections is very possible with this strategy. Kulmiye ought to study current political events around our region and understand that for oppositions to win their petty differences must be expelled and maturity with a view to winning political power be front and centre in their political motives.

Finally, and I am wont to say this, given my limited knowledge of how clan politics moves and shakes in our country, the absence of a major community in Somaliland from Kulmiye is an issue that needs serious attention and the party needs to seek ways of making sure that no community in Somaliland feels unwelcome from any party. This is a fundamental political concern and it needs resolution once and for all. The coalition within the opposition may be a way to solve this gaping problem within Kulmiye.

If there is a party in the country that effectively is guided by plain political realities it is UDUB. The party has found itself in a very advantageous situation given that the party was the government that simply declared itself a party. With state resources and a former President who lead the country to political settlement, Somali Landers were presented with a “fait accompli”. Every other politician in the opposition was sidelined and painted as either “anti-peace” or un-able to match the political prestige of the late President. Concepts that were wrong because the late president had reached his term limit and was on the way out. The advent of political parties and the constitution, albeit great foundations of Somaliland and something that the people had been clamoring for, brilliantly, and simultaneously quenched the democratic thirst of the people whilst renewing the late Presidents political life by giving him legitimately, through the constitution the right to contest political power and two terms to sit on the highest chair in the land.

The current President has presided over the last three elections and this record is plain to see. However, there are major issues in the country, in the administration and in the party that need to be assessed. The country is stable, peaceful, and President Rayale's term in office can be called the ‘peace term’ because during his tenure the peace in the country rooted itself and the beginning of institutional rule has also developed to some extent. President Rayale's winning formula has less to do with his personal charm or charisma, or leadership, rather it is has more to do with the machinery of the party/government and the coalition that is holding the party and the government.

The party though is wrought with factionalisms waiting to explode as the Presidential elections come closer. Several candidates are sharpening their swords as the big men in UDUB consider replacing the President in the next elections. The chairman of the Guurti, Selebaan Mohammed Guleed is seem as a front runner in this regard although other groupings within the party will seek to check his ambitions for the post of the Chairman of the party. Interestingly enough, the President who was recently asked whether he would run or not simply said “I have the right to run” this statement by an incumbent is perhaps the singular most important political mistake of the President. The president wants to run for the second term, claiming that he has the “right” immediately suggests that a competitive process will take part in the party and considering the ego’s and personalities involved UDUB has yet to pass it test – that test being the coming party elections. Other candidates may include the Vice –President, the Minister of Finance, the Minister of Information and the Secretary General of the Party. However, other candidates are bound to pop up soon. Within 12 months this issue will be the overriding political concern in the country.

President Rayale's handling of the issue of governance may be the most troubling political failure of his Presidency and a serious political mistake. Had the President moved towards fighting excessive corruption, be seen to build government and the institutions of state, as well as trying to win the hearts and minds of the people of Somaliland, President Rayale would have built up his popularity and would be a shoo-in for a second term. The only issue that will help the President win a second term is first, a divided opposition, and secondly if the country is recognized.

Ucid presents a new political issue in the country, with the population divided at least 40% each for the two leading parties UCID has found itself to be a kingmaker, in fact, it is political expediency and pragmatism that has led Kulmiye to court UCID with a view of holding down the administration’s unchecked power. As well, KULMIYE's correctly postulates that the Presidency, which is the financial wherewithal that glues UDUB together will indeed, find it tough to create political space for itself (UDUB) given the power of the Parliament to check the executive. Opening this new front against the government will pay off and set the stage for more competitive Presidential elections.

The chairman of Ucid must for the short term play this Kingmaker role effectively and as far as simple political calculations are concerned, UCID should make an alliance with Kulmiye in the coming Presidential elections. If as a political party it wants to win power, an act of Parliament reforming the executive, and creating a new powerful Prime Minister’s position may be an issue to study. As well, a Memorandum of Understanding to share power if the opposition wins the Presidential elections is a formula for success that cannot be gainsaid given the representation of UCID in the parliament. Any political brinkmanship can be effectively reduced by a new alliance in the Parliament with UDUB if the alliance is unworkable. UCID therefore finds itself in a new political game that allows for competition for political power to endless arithmetic formulas. In a word politics will be very interesting in the coming two years.

In the end, these are just ideas about the future at the centre of these political machinations is this simple question: will the parties serve the interests of the people in this new political template or will they selfishly serve their own political and economic interests? The voting public now has the power to make critical decisions as on these issues with their right to vote in periodic elections. Time will tell….

dallo57us @yahoo.com

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