Dec 12, 2005 (Economist Intelligence Unit)

Country by country

The new government is off to a shaky start and could fall in 2006

Overview: The most immediate issue facing the president, Abdillahi Yusuf Ahmed, and his new transitional government during 2006 is the split in the cabinet over the interim government's location in Jowhar rather than Mogadishu . If a solution to the impasse is not found soon, the risk of violent confrontation between forces loyal to Mr.   Yusuf in Jowhar and those loyal to his rivals in Mogadishu —particularly the speaker of Somalia 's new Federal Transitional Parliament (FTP), Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden—will increase substantially. Throughout 2006, sporadic fighting is expected to continue between the clans in some regions over a variety of issues. No international peacekeepers are expected to be deployed until the impasse over the government's location is resolved, which currently looks unlikely in 2006. Economic prospects will remain bleak, although better security in some areas should revive some economic activity. Somaliland 's successful legislative election in September 2005 is likely to boost its ongoing bid for international recognition during 2006.

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