Issue 228

While many of the world press covered the on-going war in Mogadishu, an almost state of war was looming last week over Las-Anod, a disputed town between Somaliland Government and Puntland Administration of Somalia. Entirely un-noticed at the moment, the Las-Anod dispute could develop into Ethiopia-Eritrea kind of War between Somaliland and Somalia in the near future. Peaceful negotiation between Somaliland and Puntland could be an alternative to war over Las-Anod.

It was a Grand traditional ceremony in Las-Anod town, located nearly 500 km south of Hargeysa, capital of Somaliland, where a powerful traditional leader, Garad Jama Garad Ali, was crowned in front of a huge number of high rank politicians from Somaliland, Puntland and Somalia. The attendees held entirely different political views on the future of the Las-Anod town in particular, and the disputed Sool and Eastern Sanaag regions in general.

The event, although very much traditional, has attracted a huge number of politically diverse politicians, and made possible for the first time in more than a decade to bring them together inside Las-Anod town. The presence of such high profile politicians like the 2nd Deputy Speaker of Somaliland House of Representatives, dozens from the powerful Somaliland Kulmiye opposition party, as well as the former prime minister of late Somalia Transitional Government, Mr. Ali Khalif Galaid, was not easily comfortable to the Puntland interior Minister, Mr. M. Xaab-sade, who was the main organizer from the Puntland Administration. The President and the Vice president of Puntland were both present in the ceremony.

Though most of the officials have now left the town, they left behind an important message; war between Somaliland and Somalia (Puntland) Administrations is inevitable in the near future over Las-Anod town. ”No body else can put a flag on Las-Anod, but we should look for peaceful resolution.” said the Puntland President, Mr. Adde Muse, in the ceremony.

Three divisions from the Somaliland Army had already being deployed in Adhi-Addeye, just 23 km west of Las-anod town and have been there now for two years. "We are free and will remain so," said the Somaliland president, Dahir Rayale Kahin, last year. "My country will not talk to Somalia about unity, but we may talk about being good neighbors." He warned.

Puntland Administration, on their side, maintains strongly armed militias mainly in and around Las-Anod town. In the case of war, the population of Las-Anod will, therefore, face extremely precarious humanitarian crisis. The majority of the population, estimated as 35,000, will be forced into displacement inside or outside both regions. Most of the suffering will be faced by the innocent women and children in Las-Anod town.

There are strong excuses for both administrations in a war over Las-Anod; Somaliland is defending itself within its own international borders including mainly Sool region, and part of Eastern Sanaag inhabited by Harti Sub-Clan. Puntland, with the green light from the President of Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (STFG), Mr. Abdullah Yusuf, on the other hand, is defending Somalia’s territorial integrity at one point, and at the sametime, fighting for preventing the break-up of Harti/ Darood clan territory between Somalia and internationally recognized Somaliland. Somaliland is currently better equipped militarily and economically than Puntland administration. But nevertheless, Puntland will certainly seek military and logistic support from the Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government in Baidoa.

Can this potential conflict be avoided in a region already troubled with mass refugees, internal displacement and frequent droughts?

Some observers say that, the Africa Union should intervene in before the situation gets worse, warns International Crisis Group (ICG) – a world think-thank security agency in a recent report. Some African countries, including South Africa and Ethiopia, are sympathetic to Somaliland's claim for international recognition, but reluctant to cause a diplomatic reckon, ICG added. Western nations are even more cautious until, perhaps, the outstanding Las-Anod issue is peacefully resolved. The African Union (AU), suggested by International Crisis Group, needs to engage in preventive diplomacy now, laying the groundwork for resolution of the dispute before it becomes a confrontation from which either side views violence as the only exit.

But will the African Union have the capacity to do so. Past experience shows that the AU has got neither the necessary expertise nor the muscle to intervene the Somali political affairs up to that level. The International Crisis Group also suggested for the AU to undertake extensive consultative process among the various political stakeholders and meantime grant Somaliland an observer status in the Union so that Somaliland could raise its demands more officially to member countries. This is extremely important and necessary for Somaliland at this moment. But without peaceful settlement of Las-Anod issue, however, there is a little chance to avert possible war in the region. Both administrations may postpone a potential conflict over Las-Anod for one to two years. “The dispute between Somaliland and Somalia will become an ever-increasing source of friction, and possibly violence”, warns ICG experts.

I suggest it is a negotiated separation and peaceful settlement of the dispute in Sool region and Las-Anod town that could essentially lead to permanent peace and stability in the whole region. Early negotiations on the disputed territory between Somaliland and Puntland Authorities can potentially defuse the political situation in the entire region. It is also possible for peaceful separation and co-existence of two independent Somali states in the Horn of Africa. Without this, the dispute between Somaliland and Puntland could develop at any moment to potential conflict similar to that between Ethiopia and Eritrea prior to their 1998-2000 border war. The war on Las-Anod is not going to be like the relatively smaller scale war that South Somalis have seen for the last decade. But it is going to be tough and extremely threatening to the stability in the entire Horn of Africa region, since most of the regional governments are also forced to playing their role in the conflict.

Both Somaliland and Puntland must be urged to do everything possible to avoid war in the region. The so called front-line states, notably Ethiopia and Yemen could play significant role to prevent possible territorial war between Somaliland and Puntland. Recent attempts to bring into the discussion table between Somaliland and Puntland Presidents in Sana’a and later on in Addis-Ababa for negotiated separation and peaceful settlement of border dispute should be further encouraged. But the initial efforts for peaceful settlement of the dispute must be supported by the People in both regions and must come from both Somaliland as well as Puntland authority.

As pointed out earlier, a peaceful separation between Somaliland and Somalia is now possible given the recent political developments in both Somaliland and Puntland. Somaliland Government should further be encouraged to peruse peaceful settlement of the dispute in Sool region vis-à-vis Puntland Authorities as an alternative to war. The African Union should pursue diplomatic efforts for a peaceful separation between Somaliland and Somalia.

The Africa Union may opt using its political influence through Presidents of Ethiopia and Yemen, who both have got high level of political interest in the Somali affairs in the region, to arrange fact-to-face negotiation between Somaliland President, Mr. Dahir Rayale, and Puntland President, Mr. Adde Muse.

Are two peaceful Somali states in the Horn of Africa possible? It is economically and politically feasible. Peace and stability in the region are among the top fundamental priorities of both Somaliland and Puntland leaders. Both Somaliland and Puntland must be urged to do everything possible to avoid war in the region. The Somaliland Government should be encouraged to peacefully resolve the crisis in Sool region and initiate strong commitment for roundtable discussions on peaceful separation between Somaliland and Somalia with Puntland Authorities as early as possible.

We should note that the lack of international investment in the region is a pressing problem in both Somaliland and Puntland development efforts. As the oil prices jumped to the highest levels since 1970s, international oil companies are closely assessing the political stability in the region for exploration of possible oil reserves in both Somaliland and Puntland. Due to the territorial dispute between Somaliland and Puntland, however, no foreign company is currently willing to step in to examine the numerous oil fields in both regions for the development of its people in both administrations. Without adequate security and international recognition, both Somaliland and Puntland will have to suffer from poverty, ignorance and hunger for generations to come.

"Who wants to invest in a country that is not internationally recognized?" asked Mr. Awil, the Somaliland Finance minister in a recent interview with a foreign journalist. "No one: it is too risky. That's what is really holding us back." Mr. Awil concluded. The Puntland President, Mr. Adde Musse, has also pointed out the lack of security as the main problem facing his administration’s ambitious development plans. “Whenever we tray to explore the natural resource of the region for the creation of employment and development, some people initiate a trouble” He said in his speech at the Grand Ceremony in Las-Anod.

The newly crowned Garad Jama Garad Ali may also be urged to initiate a peace process between Somaliland and Puntland for the good of his people in Sool in general and Las-Anod town in particular. Before uniting Somalis, let me remind the Garad to represent and speak on behalf of his desperate people, whom are caught in potential conflict at home. If the new Garad puts all his efforts to the resolution of Las-Anod crisis, I am sure; he will be remembered as a man of Peace for generations to come.

I believe it is the time we should extend our wholehearted support for a negotiated and peaceful separation as an alternative to war between Somaliland and Somalia, and, therefore, live in peaceful neighbors in the troubled Horn of Africa region.

Dr. Abdulkadir Askar, Member of Somaliland House of Representative, Elected from Sool region.

Comments are welcome. Send your e-mail at: askar211@yahoo.com http://www.freewebs.com/sagalgroup/peacefulseparationbetween.htm

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