‎Mogadishu’s Islamic Courts: A Pyrrhic Victory?‎ ‎‎

The gains made by the Islamic Courts of Mogadishu in their most recent battles with some of Mogadishu’s warlords is indisputable. The word “some” is important because despite the many headlines proclaiming “the end of the warlord era” and “the Islamic courts’ takeover of Mogadishu”, neither of these two claims are very accurate. Out of the dozens of warlords operating in Mogadishu, only three (Qanyare, Ilqayte, and Bootaan Ciise) have abandoned their bases in Mogadishu, and two of these are now not very far in Jawhar. So anyone who says that the era of warlordism has ended in Mogadishu is either deliberately lying or does not know what he is talking about. All one has to do is ask who are Ato, Aidid, Furuq, Qaybdiid, Indha Adde, Beebe, and aren’t their forces intact? Yes, some prominent warlords have suffered major blows, but that is far from saying that the era of warlordism is over.

As much as the Islamic Courts try to portray the conflict between them and some of the warlords as a battle between Islam and infidels, many of the residents of Mogadishu, especially Northern Mogadishu see it as a conflict between the Abgal (or a section of the Abgal) and the Ayr section of the Habar Gidir. The fact that Indha Adde who is seen by many Somalis as a bona fide warlord, fought on the side of the Islamic Courts, have lent credibility to the claim that the Islamic Courts are essentially an Ayr militia. It is this perception that the conflict between some of the warlords and the Islamic Courts is based on clan that made it possible for Muse Sudi and Bashir Raage to gain the protection of their clan, and is also the reason both Muse Sudi and Bashir Raage are still in Mogadishu despite losing some of their turf to the Islamic Courts. The protection given to Muse Sudi and Bashir Raage by the Abgal has intensified feelings of shame among the Murursade for not protecting their only warlord, Qanyare, who had to endure the humiliation of having to flee to Jawhar (there is talk among some of the Murusade to stand up to the Ayr and bring Qanyare back). Even among the Habar Gidir, especially the Sa’d, there is opposition to what many of them see as a power grab by the Ayr. There is even talk of an alliance between sections of the Abgal and Saad/Habar Gidir to counter the Islamic Courts (Abgal and Ayr/Habar Gidir).

The perception that the Islamic Courts is an Ayr/Habar Gidir force is not limited to Somalis but is also shared by some important outside players such as the United States. It is for this reason that the United States Embassy met with a number of Ayr/Habar Gidir bigwigs in Nairobi. In that meeting, the US failed in its objective of getting Ayr leaders to stop supporting radical Islam and terrorism (Indha Adde later bragged that the US tried to recruit him to work for them). The failure of this meeting may have led the US to increase its support for some of the warlords. Despite attempts by Ayr and Islamic Courts leaders to portray the recent defeat of some of the US supported warlords as final, the US may not see it this way. After all, there are still a lot of warlords in Mogadishu, and the ones that fled, are not far away, in Jawhar. More importantly, the US may modify its approach so that instead of supporting only a few warlords, it could widen its support to include civilian politicians, moderate religious figures and leaders of cooperating clans with the aim of isolating and defeating the Ayr/Islamic Courts.

Ethiopia is another foreign power that is viscerally opposed to the Islamic Courts, and the man who controls Jawhar, Muhammad Dheere, is in Addis Ababa soliciting help to reverse the recent gains made by the Ayr/Islamic Courts umbrella.

When you add to this the fear among many clans that the control of Mogadishu by the Islamic Courts would mean the imposition of an Ayr clan hegemony, there are valid reasons to look at the recent advances by the Islamic Courts militia as a pyrrhic victory. The war may have just begun.

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