Mogadishu, The Pearl of the Indian Ocean has fallen to the hands of Fundamentalists led by Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys.

As the development in Mogadishu unfolds, these are some of the pertinent questions that need to be analytically discussed and critically assessed in the coming days.

What is next? Would the Islamists declare the formation of an Islamist government in Mogadishu? That is expected.

But would they do that without taking over Baidhaba and dislodging the incompetent and ineffectual TFG? Would the Islamists make an effort to drive a wedge between the TFG politicos with the view of beguiling the majority of the migratory parliamentarians to join the rank and file of a victorious Islamists regime? Some parliamentarians are in favor for multitude of reasons.

How would the U.S. administration react to the formation of a Taliban-like Islamic government in Somalia? Would it intensify the unilateralist and unconstructive involvement of the U.S. in the Somali predicament? What ever reaction they may resort to, it must not be an irrational move which will only strengthen the image of the Mullahs.

What approach is expected from the manipulative meddling of the covetous neighboring countries? They should first worry about the implanted fundamentalism within their home.

Would an Islamist government serve as a decisive unifying factor of the Somalis in the Horn of Africa serve as a vehicle to struggle for the Greater Somalia? It is on their agenda.

Exactly a Taliban-style takeover of power is taking place in Mogadishu. The Talibans never fought big battles. They managed to secure their rivals support through secret deals which often involved transaction of large amounts of money. That is exactly what the Islamists are doing in Mogadishu, this time. The question now is whether the momentum of the Islamists will ebb and recede after the flight of the warlords from the Capital?

To some expectations and analyses the readings show that it is just the beginning of the Islamists takeover of Somalia and the beginning of the end of the Baidhaba-based fledgling Transitional Federal Government.

The Taliban, led by Mullah Mohamed Omar, emerged as the strongest faction in lawless Afghan Mujahedeen rebels to seize Kabul in 1996. While they created some stability after nearly two decades of conflict, they immediately applied a tough interpretation of Islamic Sharia Law and stood to rule the country and unleash a vicious war against the transitional government by taking out and hanging its president who was under the United Nations custody at the time.

Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aways is Somalia Mullah Mohamed Omer of the Talibans and he is currently touring the central regions of Somalia rallying and recruiting more manpower support for the already formidable forces of the Islamists in Mogadishu and its surroundings.

Despite belatedly disowning - at the eleventh hour - the four warlords-turned-ministers who lost Mogadishu to the Islamists, Somali Prime Minister Ali Mohammed Geedi has called upon the defeated and retreating militias of the warlords to join his government in Baidhaba. Geedi’s last-minute attempt to sway the support of the most detested Mogadishu marauding militias is a mere indicative of the sense of disillusionment and uncertainties besetting in the volatile environment of the beleaguered City of Death.

As Mohamed Dheere shaky fiefdom crumbled from within, the Islamists are expected to gain full control of Jowhar through peaceful means. In the coming few weeks, the central regions of Hiran, Galgaduud and south Mudug would more likely declare their support to the Islamists to prevent the prospect of armed incursions or internal public uprising against existing unstable local administrations. Already, the Islamists control the Lower Shabeelle and enjoy the tacit support of much of the Jubbalands. In the recent fierce fighting for the domination of war-torn Mogadishu, the Islamist proved successful, to some degree, in voluntarily drawing men and material supports from all corners in the Horn of Africa, including Somali inhabited 5th region of Ethiopia, Djibouti, NFD of Kenya, and Puntland entities.

The worst case scenario facing Islamists is how to engage in the self declared Republic of Somaliland. For sometime Islamists were busily recruiting and funding certain elements to create instability there and form notable loyal Islamist cells. Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys’s brother-in-law and a onetime Amir of the Al Ittihad is based in Burao, Somaliland, and under the watchful eye of Somaliland Government. It is to be seen whether they will attempt some ignominious activities, in one way or the other, or confine themselves to consolidate their recent victory in Mogadishu.

Adan & Ahmed