Horn of Africa Expert Sees U.S. Policy on ‎Track in Somalia‎‎

Somalia Contract Group, good idea, scholar Shinn tells Senate panel

By Jim Fisher-Thompson

Washington, July 12, 2006 – Former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia and State Department coordinator for Somalia David Shinn says the United States' policy of working with international and regional partners to bring peace to Somalia is the right way to proceed.

Shinn, an adjunct professor at George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs, testified before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee looking into U.S. policy toward Somalia, a nation beset by instability for the past 15 years, at a July 11 public hearing.

"A unilateral U.S. policy in Somalia is almost guaranteed to fail or achieve little.   The only long-term strategy that has any hope for success must be coordinated carefully with key countries in the region, European allies, the African Union, Intergovernmental Authority for Development, United Nations, and the Arab League,” the Horn of Africa expert told lawmakers.  

Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer told the same Senate hearing, "President Bush and Secretary [Condoleezza] Rice have made it a priority to confront the ongoing turmoil in Somalia with a multilateral coordinated strategy."  

One result, she said, was the recent establishment of the International Somalia Contact Group comprising the United States, Intergovernmental Authority on Development, African Union, United Nations, European Union and Arab League.

Shin called formation of the Somalia Contact Group "a good first step" in reconciling the various fractious political movements in Somalia.

Frazer told the Senate panel a group consensus has formed to view the Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI) as "the legitimate governing body in Somalia." She added, "We will work to strengthen its capacity and continue to urge dialogue” between the TFI and Court of Islamic Council (CIC). The CIC was formerly known as the Islamic Courts Union (ICU).

She said the United States views as "positive" the TFI/CIC meeting in Khartoum, Sudan, June 22 that resulted in a seven-point agreement recognizing "the legality of the Transitional Federal Institutions as the governing institutions of Somalia and the reality of the Islamic courts" and looked forward to their next meeting in Khartoum on July 15.  

Militias backed by the Islamist-based movement CIC recently defeated warlords that had dominated Somalia’s former capital of Mogadishu. On the question of the CIC's radicalism, Shinn told the lawmakers, "as sections of Somalia, especially greater Mogadishu, have become increasingly subject to the influence of extremist elements, the prospect increases for linkages to terrorism."

"This does not mean, however, that Somalia is likely to become a major al-Qaida base or that it is headed towards a Taliban form of government,” Shinn said.   “The vast majority of Somalis follow a moderate form of Islam and they are highly suspicious of foreign influence."

“Although there are some worrying developments coming from some of the Islamic courts, the situation is much too fluid to jump to conclusions," the former diplomat added.

Shinn said the CIC's structure is highly decentralized.   "Some of the courts are led by extremists, others by moderates.   They all agree on their goal to create an Islamic state.   It is not clear, however, that they have the same vision for that state."

Perhaps most important, he said, is that the courts have developed so far largely on a clan and sub-clan basis.   "Their power resides in the Hawiye clan, one of Somalia’s five major clans.   Their support among the Hawiye seems to be broad, but not especially deep.    At least one Hawiye warlord in Mogadishu continues to hold out against the court militias.   It remains to be seen if their authority will extend significantly to other clans."

Shinn said in the final analysis "clan loyalty will probably prevail over a particular brand of Islamic theology.   There could well be a significant push back by Hawiye leaders against the extremist theological views" of some of the CIC leaders.

With no central government and no U.S. ambassador accredited to the country the question of a special U.S. envoy to Somalia arose at the hearing.   Shinn told the panel, "I am normally not enthusiastic about the naming of special envoys to deal with country-specific crises."

However, "Somalia is an exception," he said.   "A special envoy for Somali, supported by a small staff, would for the first time since 1994 permit U.S. policy towards Somalia to rise to the level required for adequate interagency coordination in Washington and the field."

Frazer, while not specifically opposing an envoy or "senior-level person," told the panel, "Our foreign policy system [in Africa] works well with the officials that are in place now.   More importantly, on the ground, we need to look at how we carry out the operations" for Somalia.   Now, "they are carried out by our embassy in Nairobi and they are doing a great job.

(The Washington File is a product of the Bureau of International Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)

Source: State Department, July 12, 2006