Islamists Close In On Somalian ‎Government‎‎

Somali Islamic fighters in Baidoa

By David Blair

Baidoa, July 14, 2006 – The ruined town of Baidoa, where ragged gunmen roam bullet-scarred streets, is Somalia's alternative capital.

Pulverized buildings, choked with weeds, house the country's official government, which has a president, cabinet and 275-member parliament.

Barely 150 miles away, Islamist extremists have seized most of Somalia's real capital, Mogadishu, and the surrounding territory.

Baidoa, where the "transitional federal government" clings to notional power thanks to international sponsorship, may be the Islamists' next target.

It took 14 peace conferences to create this threadbare administration and, until last year, fighting prevented it from even entering Somalia. The government has spent only four months in Baidoa - and already the clock is ticking.

Hussein Mohammed Aideed, the deputy prime minister, said the Islamists "pose a real military threat not only to Baidoa but to our neighbors".

He added: "I don't think our government has the capacity to withstand the forces now being massed in Mogadishu." Only some 3,000 motley militiamen are loyal to the Baidoa administration.

Mr. Aideed, who is also interior minister, has recommended evacuating the government. He advised Abdillahi Yusuf, the transitional president, to leave Baidoa during a meeting of the national security council on Sunday.

"If I was the president I would have got out of here," said Mr. Aideed. "But he is a military man, he will not relocate easily."

So far, Mr. Yusuf has declined to move his administration to his home region of Puntland in northern Somalia. But Mr. Aideed predicted that an Islamist assault on Baidoa would come in a "maximum of one or two weeks".

He added: "Already there are training camps hidden near Baidoa. They will bring weapons, stockpile them inside the town and create insecurity here. "

The Islamists, styling themselves the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts, captured most of Mogadishu last month. If Baidoa falls, they will have eliminated their last significant rival in southern Somalia. The way will be open for them to control a strategically vital area bordering Ethiopia and Kenya, containing dozens of ports and airstrips.

One of the Islamist leaders, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, appears on an American "wanted list". He was linked to a Somali militant group, al-Itihaad al-Islamiya, which may have aided the bombings of the US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania in 1998.

Western governments fear that an Islamist takeover of southern Somalia risks creating a haven for al-Qa'eda terrorists. The anarchic country, which destroyed its central government when President Siyad Barre was overthrown in 1991, is already believed to harbor several al-Qa'eda suspects.

But the Islamists have significant popular support. By imposing Sharia law, they have brought a semblance of order to Mogadishu.

One of their last warlord opponents surrendered his forces in Mogadishu on Monday. Control of the port was handed over to the Islamic forces on Wednesday after heavy fighting, while gunmen affiliated with two warlords turned in arms caches yesterday.

Mr. Aideed, 44, who spent 10 years in the US Marines and holds dual American-Somali citizenship, blamed American errors for the rise of the Islamists. By funding a coalition of warlords to fight terrorism, the US made it easier for their Islamist opponents to raise money in the Muslim world, he said.

America also failed to build the army, police and intelligence services of the transitional government, he claimed.

Some 1.7 million Somalis rely on international aid. If Baidoa falls, the relief effort could be threatened.

Source: Telegraph, July14, 2006

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