Tough Times For Transitional Federal Government Of Somalia And United Islamic Courts‎‎

By Liban Ahmad, London

United Islamic Courts of Somalia have attracted the attention of analysts after the defeat of warlords who terrorized parts of southern Somalia more than 15 years. “Good riddance to Muse Suudi, Mohamed Qanyare and Co” has been a sensible reaction. Now it is time to look at the options that have the potential to transform the leaders United Islamic Courts and the Transitional Federal Government from implacable foes into partners in nation building.

It was the warlords’ miscalculations that propelled the Islamic Courts onto the power scene of Somalia. They were inadequately prepared for the tasks that defeat of warlords entailed: the careful soul-searching and genuine acceptance of the fact that the designation, Islamic Courts, is a misnomer that needs to be done away with for good because courts are no longer neighborhood based groups. Somalia has been without an effective central government since January 1991. The warlords were calling the shots in many parts of Somalia. Islamic Courts have succeeded to change warlord fiefdoms into a peaceful habitat-- a timely and necessary substitute for anarchy.

Most of the administrations that were formed in some arts of Somalia after the state collapse were seen as a regional panacea, but never as a solution to the Somali problem. The Islamic Courts will be unwise to assume that the momentum gained through the swift defeat of warlords will resonate in all parts of Somalia. They ought to become partners in nation building, forces of moderation. No one suggests an Islamic state is impossible in Somalia. Demonizing the forces of Islamic Courts is a wrong way to approach the Somali problem.

The concerns of the neighboring country, Ethiopia, are understandable. The Transitional Federal Government of Somalia that Ethiopia supports is now in danger of being overrun by the forces of Islamic Courts. As I M. Lewis argued “we could easily have on our hands a major new confrontation between Islamic and Christian fundamentalism, both equally deadly and destructive.”

Events may turn out to be as deadly as I M Lewis foresees only if Somali leaders place the premium on personal, power-related interests. The psychological blow dealt to the TFG stems from the TFG’s strategic oversight to foresee an outcome of the power struggle between warlords and the Islamic Courts. At the height of the war between the Islamic Courts and the vanquished warlords, Yusuf Azhari, the Somali president's advisor told the Horn Afrik Radio that “the war is not any different from the past wars that Mogadishu had seen."

The increased Ethiopian involvement in the Somali imbroglio reported in a Reuters news story underline Somalia ’s drift towards prolonged proxy war.

It is alleged that forces from Islamic Courts had entered Buurhakaba, (roughly 40 KM from Baidoa) following the formation an Islamic court for Digil and Mirifle clan members in Mogadishu . Mr. Soomow (aka Abu Mansur) was quoted as saying “Islamic courts will have to be implemented in Digil and Mirifle populated areas.” While there is no question about the right of Digil and Mirifle clansmen and clanswomen to choose a system of governance, maintaining the delicate peace agreement between the TFG and United Islamic Courts must have been upper most in the minds of top leadership of Islamic Courts.

Two nights ago I watched a debate on Somali Universal TV between an envoy of the president Mr. Seed and Mr. Tarsan from the Somali community in London . The belated pragmatism of the TFG’s core supporters was evident when Seed, in reply to Tarsan’s charge that TFG leaders contradict each other, said: " one has to consider that the government and the parliament are made up of people with competing agendas, and that makes policy formation difficult whereas the Islamic Courts have one principle now."

There is an opportunity that the Islamic Courts and TFG can work together and aim to prepare Somalia for a multi-party system that can prevent a relapse into a dictatorship or anarchy. Leaders of the Islamic Courts and the TFG must resist the temptation to unwittingly drag Somalia into a proxy war. Somalis can enter a new politically stable era if the Islamic Courts play a leading role in making Somalia into a country where the rule of law prevails over the law of the jungle. The single handedly solved Mogadishu ’s long-standing security problem. Their opponents are not foreigners or invaders, but compatriots with whom they share a lot, least of all the need to establish fully functioning government for Somalia . Peace and negotiations must be given a chance more than once.

libahm@gmail.com

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