Somalia And Ethiopia : The Osama Factor‎‎

Somalia's Islamists hail a familiar leader: Osama bin Laden

Mogadishu, July 27, 2006 - LAST week's arrival of Ethiopian troops in Somalia's dusty western town of Baidoa, ostensibly to protect the feeble transitional Somali government holed up there against its Islamist countrymen, has pushed the country closer to war. Ethiopia has long been suspected of having troops in Somalia, hidden in the deserts north of Baidoa. Now their very visible arrival in the town, and their entry into others such as Wajid, has raised the stakes.

Ethiopia's intervention was immediately denounced by Somalia's Council of Islamic Courts, which now holds sway over most of southern Somalia, after recent victories over the CIA-backed warlords of Mogadishu, the country's capital. The two sides are now squaring off against each other across the desert. There have already been skirmishes between Ethiopian troops and Somali Islamists east of Baidoa.

Both the Ethiopians and the Islamists have something to gain from fighting. Ethiopia, which has often meddled in Somalia, is one of the world's oldest Christian-led countries, though it has many Muslims too. A war against militant Islam in the region might make it a useful ally of America, bringing cash and diplomatic support. It would also be quite a coup for the prime minister, Meles Zenawi, since America 's Congress recently passed a bill condemning his government as an undemocratic abuser of human rights, which it is.

Ethiopia, fearing that some of its own Muslims will side with the Islamists, will try to strike hard and early, if an opportunity presents itself. Tiny Djibouti, home to a large American military base, and secessionist Somaliland, which has peeled way from the rest of Somalia, could both play vital roles. Their ports serve Ethiopia; their governments oppose Islamists.

War might also, however, help the Islamists, positioning them as the patriotic choice for ordinary Somalis against the supposedly quisling secularists in Baidoa and their Ethiopian masters. Most Somalis have always hated the Ethiopians, whose support for the transitional government, far from saving it, has undermined it. To complicate matters, there are reports that Eritrea, another foe of Ethiopia, is secretly flying arms to the Islamists.

But war is not yet inevitable. Moderate Islamists still outnumber the radicals, and could yet restrain their more vociferous co-religionists in order to make a power-sharing deal with the transitional government. But it is the radicals, emboldened by their recent victories, who have the guns. They have a clearer vision, not just for building clinics and Islamic schools but for setting up an emirate--to encompass all of Somalia as well as the Somali-inhabited parts of neighboring Ethiopia and Kenya--to be run by austere sharia courts.

Buoyed by arms and money from sympathizers, the radicals have dropped their earlier caution. A few weeks ago, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, their front man, distanced himself from Osama bin Laden. Now he likens Mr. bin Laden to Nelson Mandela. Rallies in Mogadishu are calling for victimized Muslims around the world to come and fight in Somalia. Against whom? Ethiopia , to begin with. Then America . Perhaps finally Saudi Arabia .

A lot of this is simply rhetoric to stoke up Islamist gunmen for a fight. The rallies are strikingly small. The wild talk is still occasionally tempered by cooler speeches from moderates, such as Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, who may still seek to restrain Mr. Aweys in the Islamist leadership. But even Mr. Ahmed condemns the Baidoa government as "unbelievers" and "traitors" for welcoming Ethiopian troops.

The UN and the main Western countries--in particular, Britain , Italy and Sweden --which have been trying to build up the transitional government now look powerless. The UN, in particular, has been wrong-footed by Ethiopia's incursion and has been reduced to silence, since neither the transitional government nor Ethiopia will admit that an incursion has occurred. The African Union still says it wants to send peacekeepers to Somalia, while the Arab League hopes to sponsor peace talks in the Sudanese capital, Khartoum, in the next few weeks; Somalia's transitional government says it wants them. Meanwhile, both sides want more weapons.

Source: The Economist

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