By Emma Mutaizibwa

The Americans tried and got their fingers burnt, but the ever-growing threat of al-Qaeda would not let them rest. Harsh experiences in both Afghanistan and Iraq dictate that any direct intervention through deployment of troops into the state now known as the "stateless nation of Somalia" would remind the American people of the bitter 1990s experience, a reminder that could prove costly at election time.

Somalia, which has not had a central government since 1990 now stands out as the biggest concern of the terrorism-fearing world and especially its regional neighbors since the new tidal wave led by the strongly religious leaning Islamic Courts Union, that has swept aside the transitional government and is gradually pushing the warlords that had curved the country into small "clandoms."

About a month ago, President Yoweri Museveni announced that Uganda would be sending troops as part of a regional effort to re-establish normalcy to Somalia.

Ethiopia is (or has already) sending troops to Somalia. Addressing a joint news conference with the Ethiopian Prime Minister Mr. Meles Zenawi, Mr. Museveni said Cabinet had endorsed the deployment of troops under the auspices of the African Union and IGAD. There remains some feint hope that a coordinated intervention can still return sanity and interim leader Abdullah Yusuf to power.

But that joint press conference was unique in its own way given that Somalia already is rumored to have troops deep inside the borders of its southerly neighbor.

According to political analysts, the timing of Zenawi's visit to Uganda, which had been disguised as a trip on matters of "trade," was to draw a war plan for the already troubled Horn of Africa country.

Uganda and Ethiopia are backing Somalia's interim President Abdillahi Yusuf a secular warlord, who is clinging onto power by a thread. Though Mr. Zenawi has vehemently denied the accusations, the media has reported movements of Ethiopian troops into the southern Somali town of Baidoa a safe-haven of President Abdillahi.

Last week Sheikh Hassan Dahir who is the political leader of the radical Union of Islamic Courts in Mogadishu warned Uganda against intervening in an intricate war where Islamic radicals are fighting for control of government against secular warlords.

"We don't want a Somali bullet to hit a Ugandan, or a Ugandan bullet to hit a Somali. There should be no reason for that," Mr. Dahir said last week.

Justifying the complexities of the war, former Samia Bugwe North MP Aggrey Awori traces the invisible hand of the Americans in an attempt to route terrorists out of Somalia who are backing the Islamic fundamentalists.

Rather than opting for open aggression, Washington now wants to use Nairobi, Addis Ababa and Kampala as a proxy to fight a silent counter-terrorism war in Somalia, he argues.

Anti-Americanism has deep and bloody roots in Somalia where US soldiers were humiliated during 1993's Operation Restore Hope incident in which 18 soldiers were killed by militias and later their bodies tied on vehicles and dragged on the streets of Mogadishu.

Currently the United States has put Sheikh Hassan Dahir on the most wanted list of terrorists and has accused him of having links with the al Qaeda.

Awori told Inside Politics that, "Americans are definitely interested in al-Qaeda."

Warning about the peril Uganda could face, Awori argues that the deployment in Somalia, 'exposes the country and we might become a target of al-Qaeda.' "We have our own problems like Kony. Why should we involve ourselves in an international conflict? We shall expose our diplomats in embassies abroad to al-Qaeda"

Just a week ago, the Ugandan backed leader Mr. Abdillahi Yusuf narrowly escaped an assassination attempt by a suicide car bomber outside the Parliament building in Baidoa. The blast and a subsequent gun battle killed 11 people, including the President's brother.

Though there was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attack in Baidoa, the only town controlled by the government, the foreign minister, Ismail Mohamed Hurre could not rule out the Union of Islamic Courts of masterminding the attack with the help of al-Qaeda.

REGIONAL EFFORT: President Museveni announced that Uganda would be sending troops to re-establish normalcy to Somalia.

Hurre said the government believes the car bombing had "the hallmarks of al-Qaeda. “The terror organization's leader, Osama bin Laden, has called Somalia a battleground in his war against the West.

"Osama bin Laden has made it clear he wants to do harm to the government and to the president in particular," Hurre said.

However a senior lecturer in the Department of Political Science Mr. Aaron Mukwaya thinks it is reductionist to imagine that Uganda could become a target of al-Qaeda.

"We are not a country, which may appetise al-Qaeda," he told Inside Politics.

Though he shared a different opinion on al-Qaeda, he agrees that sending troops to Somalia could prove costly.

"Sending our troops to bloodthirsty militias in Somalia, could be catastrophic. You remember the American experience. Our troops will die in big numbers. Many of these young people could lose their lives and Parliament will be used as the scapegoat," he said.

As a lesson we could learn from, Mukwaya cited the US and British Parliaments that endorsed the deployment of troops in Iraqi.

Mr. Mukwaya said the internal dynamics of Somalia should be looked at from a historical perspective.

"There has not been a nation for many years called Somalia. Internally there is no semblance of a state," Mukwaya argues. He said currently the problems in Somalia are too intricate.

However, the NRM deputy Spokesperson Mr. Ofwono Opondo said there should be no alarm over the deployment.

"First of all, we have ever deployed just after the government of Said Barre was overthrown. We are deploying our troops because we have an international obligation to fulfill," he said.

Opondo told Inside Politics that, "Terrorists such as Kony could take advantage of the lawlessness in Somalia to get arms."

He added, "This could breed terrorism and instability in the entire region."

Opondo said that Uganda now should be looking for a consensus in terms of deployment.

"We should not fear to deploy because rogues [Sheikh Hassan Dahir] are threatening us. This is not the way to go," he said.

Asked why the Ugandan government has decided to back President Abdillahi, in a war, which seems to be more of a clash of religious interests, Opondo said, "The Nairobi negotiations approved President Abdillahi as the interim President."

The Islamic Courts Union on Tuesday seized control of Kismayo Airport which international troops had hoped to use to enter the country.

Source: The Monitor