By Tia Goldenberg,

Nairobi, September 27, 2006 – As tensions continue to mount between rival Islamists and the government in Somalia, analysts are warning that foreign troops should not be sent in, and that the international community must encourage the two sides to attend peace talks in Sudan next month for the country to gain any sort of stability. Somalia's Islamists strengthened their hold on the country with the seizure of another port town this week, triggering a call for international help by the country's weak transitional government.

And with fresh reports of Ethiopian troops in the anarchic country, there are fears the two might abandon the talks.

"Throwing troops at the government is not going to solve the problem or promote peace," regional analyst Matt Bryden told Deutsche Presse-Agentur dpa.

International troops could bring more havoc to the region, another analyst said.

"The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) have been very clear in rejecting any idea of international or regional forces and they say they will wage war. The courts mean business and are very serious," said Suliman Baldo, director of the Africa Program at the International Crisis Group.

Bryden said the international community must understand that the Islamists can no longer be excluded from a peace process and that it must bring the two sides together through diplomacy.

"It is extremely important that the international community pressures both sides not to abandon peace talks," he said. So far, he added, the international community's efforts have been lacking.

Somalia fell into lawlessness in 1991 after the ousting of dictator Mohammed Siyad Barre by US-backed warlords. The Islamists, who took the capital Mogadishu from them in June and have since continued to amass territory in the country, have brought security to parts of the conflict-ridden country.

The Transitional Federal Government has the backing of the international community but has been divided since it was formed in 2004, with nearly 20 ministers resigning earlier this year.

The situation has become even more volatile since the takeover of key port town Kismayo on Sunday. The two sides had agreed not to expand territory in the second round of peace talks brokered by the Arab League in the Sudanese capital Khartoum earlier this month.

The government views the taking of Kismayo as a breach of that agreement and called for protection from the international community. The Islamists, who took Kismayo without any physical resistance as the government defense minister had fled, say they were welcomed in and thus did not expand illegally.

What's more, the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African grouping, had agreed to send a peacekeeping force into the region, which the Islamists vehemently oppose.

The proposed regional troops are seen as a means to protect the government rather than be an impartial force. Reports of Ethiopian soldiers near the transitional government's base in the provincial capital Baidoa are only drumming up support for the Islamists, Bryden said.

The Islamists come from a specific Somali clan and Somalis who support them do so not only because of their strict ideology but also because of their clan.

Bryden called the efforts of the European Union - which is the biggest financial donor to Somalia - "lukewarm."

Baldo said the third round of the peace talks, which begins October 30, are the most crucial as a power-sharing agreement - seen as the only way to secure peace - will be negotiated for the first time.

While there are fears both sides may not turn up at the next talks, Baldo seemed sure they will.

"The government needs the courts because this would allow it to confirm itself as the legitimate government of the land. The courts need the government to get full legitimacy as well.

"The two sides need each other."

Source: DPA - Deutsche Presse-Agentur