Ambassador Shinn outlines Somalia's future on American Enterprise Institute panel

By Bruce Greenberg - Washington File Staff Writer

Washington, October 6, 2006 – With Somalia slipping in and out of anarchy, a panel of Africanists met at the American Enterprise Institute October 4 to discuss how U.S. security interests in the Horn of Africa region might be affected by Somalia’s instability.

The panelists agreed the situation in Somalia is precarious: Warring clans vie for power while a conservative Islamic movement consolidates its control over the capital, Mogadishu, and much of the rest of the country. A fractious secular government is trying to establish its autonomy. In addition, there are continuing threats from terrorist groups aligned with al-Qaida and from pirates operating off Somalia's coast.

Panel member David Shinn, former U.S. ambassador to Burkina Faso and to Ethiopia and now a professor of political science at George Washington University, pointed out the volatility of the area, noting the decades-old animosity between Ethiopia and Somalia, and their common 1,600-kilometer border.

The two nations' disagreements, he said, are stoked by territorial claims, by both countries' support of secessionist movements and by disputes over natural resources.

Additionally, the area remains a powder keg because of illicit arms shipments, with the Ethiopians accusing Somalia of aiding Eritrea, another of its adversaries, and the Islamic Courts Union faction in Somalia charging Ethiopia with arming the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the secular entity, once centered in Baidoa, striving to gain control of the entire country.

Other countries in the region are pursuing their own strategic interests, Shinn said.

"Kenya now favors an African peacekeeping force in Somalia but has not offered to contribute troops," he said. "Recent strong Kenyan support for the TFG may be driven by fears that the Islamic Courts intend to pursue incorporation of Somali-inhabited territory in Kenya’s northeastern region, which shares a [684-kilometer]-long border with Somalia.

"Djibouti, unlike Ethiopia and Kenya, is now urging that the TFG and Islamic Courts reach an understanding at the [peace] talks in Khartoum designed for this purpose. Djibouti does not support a peacekeeping mission in Somalia and recently urged that outsiders not interfere in the country." Djibouti, Shinn said, "is an overwhelmingly Muslim country and increasingly dependent on Arab investment, which may account for its greater willingness to accept the [Somali] Islamic Courts."

COUNTERTERRORISM, EFFECTIVE GOVERANCE, HUMANITARIAN AID

In this volatile mix, the goals of U.S. policy in Somalia “remain clear: we address the threat of terrorism, support the establishment of effective governance and political stability and respond to the humanitarian needs of the Somalian people and promote regional security," U.S. State Department official Eunice Reddick, another panel member, said.

Reddick, director of State’s Office of East African Affairs, said the United States is committed to working with all Somalis and all members of the East African community to bring about a lasting peace in the region. At the same time, she added, the United States seeks "to ensure that our engagement can adapt to the changing dynamics and future developments on the ground in Somalia."

She said this means the United States must focus on building institutions – “in that regard, the U.S. is the largest bilateral donor of humanitarian assistance to Somalia, which in the last fiscal year of 2006 topped $90 million."

Reddick added that the United States has worked closely with the international community to form the International Somalia Contact Group, which supports the return of effective governance to the country. But, she said, ultimately it is up to the Somali people themselves to establish a functioning central government.

Somalia must not serve as a haven for terrorists, "including the several foreign al Qaida operatives that have taken refuge there," among them some of the individuals responsible for the 1998 U.S. Embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania, as well as the 2002 attacks on an Israeli airliner and an Israeli hotel in Kenya, Reddick said, adding, "We would urge the Islamic Courts to support the bringing of these individuals to justice."

Source: United States Department of State

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