Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, October 9, 2006 – As the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) reform themselves by establishing a central command for all Islamic courts in Somalia, concerns are being expressed that a radical militant youth group might eventually shift the balance of power in the courts and manage to dominate future directions.

Analysts say this will determine the courts' future relationship with the Transitional Federal Government (TFG), and is likely to have consequences not only for Somalia but the region as a whole.

Matt Bryden, analyst for the International Crisis Group said here on Wednesday that officials in UIC seem to have differences of opinion as to the direction of the movement, yet the Shabbab and the more radical elements within the courts seem to exert much of the influence.

The Shabbab (Arabic word for youth), despite not being an officially constituted body in the structure of the UIC, are reported to have influence in the various organs of the courts, specially the security element.

"The Shabbab have, through some mechanism, managed to position themselves in three important sections within the courts' structure - the Shura, the highest consultative body of the courts, security, and finance," Bryden told a gathering.

"They have direct influence over the security and an indirect influence over the Shura."

"Some of the leadership, particularly those who reflect the more Hawyie identity of the courts, say that they have done what they set out to achieve by stabilizing their part of Somalia. They believe they have administration analogues to those in Puntland and Somaliland. They are of the position that they should stop expanding and talk with the transitional federal institutions as to how they could work together and may be integrate," Bryden said during his presentation at the Sheraton Addis.

On the other hand, he added, the nationalistic and heavily armed faction, particularly the Shabbab, are not interested in dialogue, and aim to expand throughout Somalia. He said they believed they could do this without the transitional federal institutions and were not in favor of negotiations.

This, according to Bryden who was in Mogadishu recently, will likely discourage those within the courts who seek negotiations.

While such strains would not lead to the dissolution of the courts, they are likely to lead to further discord and even conflict, and according to him, the stronger groups, particularly the Shabbab and those aligned to it, will subdue the rest and come to define the functions of the courts.

In addition to rhetoric of expanding territory and ideology beyond Somalia's borders, the fact that some in the leadership of the Shabbab allegedly have links with East Africa's Al-Qaeda network is "disquieting" for neighboring countries and the international community at large, the International Crisis Group expert said.

However disturbing that may be, Bryden adds, the situation is reversible if those at the highest level of authority in the courts re-control the positions currently in the hands of the Shabbab.

Little as is known of the Shabbab, and just as conflicting, reports indicate that the young militants grew up in harsh conditions of Mogadishu. Most have not had education and made their living as bodyguards for foreigners or doing "dirty work" for money.

They played a key role in driving the US-backed warlords out of Mogadishu.

While some put the number of these "elite fighters" at the thousands, Bryden estimates them at some 800, and says that they also supervise other militia of the courts.

Their leader, of whom also little is known about, one Adan Hashi Ayro, is said to have been trained in Afghanistan and returned to Somalia just before the US invasion.

Reports have it that he owns battle wagons equipped with anti-aircraft artillery that he uses as ground weapon.

In an apparent reform that is taking place within the courts, all Islamic courts in Somalia will come under the central administration announced on Thursday as the Islamic Courts of Acting the 'Shara'eh law' of Banadir Region."

This central court administration will comprise of four courts, according to reports by the Shabelle Media Network. Accordingly, the four courts are: The Court assigned for returning forcefully taken properties, consisting of 11 persons, the Court of judiciary, consisting of 12 persons, the Court of Banadir region consisting of 12 persons, and the Court of Bandir regional districts with 21 police stations, consisting of 64 judges.

"We will soon form another regional administration for Lower Shabelle region (southern Somalia) and Middle Shabelle region (north Somalia)", Sheik Mahdi, leader of Islamic Courts executive council judiciary office, told reporters.

Source: The Reporter