Written by Daniel Ooko

Attempted assassination of President ‘Abdillahi Yusuf on September 18 in Baidoa

Nairobi , Kenya, October 15, 2006 – Somalia’s collapse has been dramatic over the past one and a half decades, but the political and diplomatic developments in the Horn of Africa nation since June this year reveal an intricate battle shaping up in Mogadishu and its surrounding areas.

From a nation whose political significance was only seen during the Cold War as a Soviet Union ally, Somalia has grown to become a major test case for United Nations resolve and the United States’ battlefront in the global war against terror.

When suspected terrorists attempted to assassinate Somali President ‘Abdillahi Yusuf on September 18 this year, Somali authorities called it an attack against the country’s fledgling democracy, and reacted by arresting three suspects, some of them lawmakers.

Yusuf, whose hold on the country has been neutralized by the expansion of the Supreme Council of Islamic Courts (SCIC), has since blamed the Al-Qa’ida terrorist organization and the SCIC for what he termed a “well-coordinated attack and an attempt to take his life.”

The mention of Al-Qa’ida as an affiliate of the SCIC, coming two days after the SCIC declared “holy war” against Ethiopia and by extension, Yusuf’s administration, has heightened tension in the Horn of Africa region.

Somali Islamists have rapidly expanded their presence in the country since capturing the capital Mogadishu in June, defeating a coalition of self-proclaimed anti-terrorist warlords said to be backed by the United States, and leaving the interim government increasingly isolated.

The U.N., which backs the legitimately elected Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) led by Yusuf and Prime Minister Muhammad ‘Ali Geri – who has twice survived assassination attempts – has been trying to find a way out of the muddle, to no avail.

In June, the role of the U.S. in the Somali political fiasco came into sharp focus after intelligence reports leaked to the press suggested Washington was supporting a coalition of Somali warlords to defeat the Islamists.

Washington ’s topmost diplomat in charge of African affairs, Jendayi Frazer, who became one of the first U.S. officials to visit Somalia since the formation of the TFG, admitted the U.S. was indeed supporting some friendly forces “to get information.”

“The best way to get America's support to the Somali people in a way that doesn't undermine our interests and their interests is for them to give up these foreign terrorists,” Frazer told a news conference in Nairobi on June 22 when the Islamists started their expansion across southern Somalia.

“They have to stop in their tracks; the fact that they are expanding raises questions as to what their motive is,” Frazer said in reaction to the takeover of Mogadishu.

Earlier in June when the battle for Mogadishu picked up, culminating in the defeat of an alliance of 15 U.S.-backed warlords, five of whom were then serving in the prime minister’s government, opinion was in favor of the SCIC leadership.

But the two sides differed when the TFG called for troops to help establish central authority in Mogadishu and other strategic towns, a notion roundly dismissed by the SCIC leadership.

When the Islamic militias drove out the warlords, who received an average $100,000 a month plus weapons to fight the SCIC, even the Baidoa-based TFG was pleased about this new development.

But several months after their takeover, the seed of discord between the Islamists and the TFG, which it initially regarded as a possible ally, the rift has widened and the two are racing towards a serious battlefront, also pitting Ethiopia and Eritrea against each other.

The Islamists celebrated their victory in Mogadishu by mobilizing residents to participate in a citywide clean-up to rid it of its 15-year-old ruins and breathe a fresh lease of life onto the city streets.

The SCIC has been fiercely opposed to the deployment of foreign troops and has, since June, led demonstrations in the streets of Mogadishu and other smaller towns, claiming they were capable of offering the much-needed security.

SCIC leader Sharif Sheikh Ahmad said their intention was to promote Islamic law, but denied they were like the Taliban.

"We are opposed to any form of foreign military presence in our country," said Sheikh ‘Abdulqadir ‘Ali, vice-chairman of the SCIC.

However, the Somali authority insisted that the opposition against the deployment of troops would continue to hold the government to ransom and called the SCIC’s opposition a “minority view” not shared by the rest of the Somali territory.

“Everybody knows Islamic Courts opposes [foreign] troops. That does not include a wide majority of Somali people. The majority want to have a state that is functioning,” Somali Foreign Minister Isma’il Hurreh said during a meeting with Kenyan officials.

Speaking a day after the attempted assassination of Yusuf, Hurreh described the suicide bomb attack that left Yusuf with light burns around his neck and bruises on the face, as a “heinous crime on Somalia soil.”

“Militias cannot be used to bring order. The demands of a small minority in Somalia could lead the country and the entire region into big problems,” Hurreh said during a September 19 news conference with Kenyan Assistant Foreign Minister Moses Wetangula.

Kenya is the current chair of the seven-member regional peace body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), which has been sidelined in the latest attempt to re-unite the rival Somali factions.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia says it has sought to widen the range of choices for the Somali troops and recently issued a statement through Ethiopian Television, saying it had concluded discussions with Senegal and Nigeria for troops for Somalia.

“There is no need for them [troops] at this time, since the warlords, who were the main obstacle to peace and security in the country, no longer pose any serious threat. With goodwill and dialogue among us [Somalis], we can solve any remaining minor security issues on our own,” ‘Ali said when asked about the troop’s issue.

During 1990, Ethiopia, also seen as being close to Yusuf, helped the Somali leader expel an Islamic group from the northern Puntland region that he controlled.

And with fresh reports of Ethiopian troops in the anarchic country, there are fears the two might abandon the peace talks scheduled for this month in Khartoum, Sudan.

“Throwing troops at the government is not going to solve the problem or promote peace, but could bring more havoc to the region,” regional analyst Matt Bryden told The Media Line.

“The Union of Islamic Courts [the SCIC] has been very clear in rejecting any idea of international or regional forces and they say they will wage war. The courts mean business and are very serious,” said Suliman Baldo, director of the Africa Program at the International Crisis Group.

“Any sort of AU intervention – which would most likely be a cover for Ethiopian intervention – is most likely to be highly divisive and is likely to derail any attempt at peaceful negotiation between the government and the courts," Baldo added.

Bryden said the international community must understand that the Islamists could no longer be excluded from a peace process and that it must bring the two sides together through diplomacy.

“It is extremely important that the international community pressures both sides not to abandon peace talks,” he said.

So far, he added, the international community's efforts had been lacking.

IGAD member states say the pursuit of various national and regional interests in Somalia creates an intricate balancing act for the peace mediation efforts, and at one time warned there was too much external help in the hostilities in Mogadishu and its environs.

IGAD, the front office body, which has been overseeing the Somali peace process, had earlier expressed concern over Washington’s indifference to the political crisis in Somalia and warned it against uncoordinated military intervention, saying it was bound to fail in Somalia – again.

Kenyan Foreign Minister Raphael Tuju, speaking during the recently concluded United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York, urged the international community to be vigilant against the continued expansion of the SCIC.

Tuju sought the world’s “highest possible alert on Somalia,” asking for the strong backing of the Baidoa-based transitional government to enable it to achieve its goals.

The Kenyan official expressed his country’s deepest, keen desires for a military action against the Islamists. Kenyan President Mwai Kibaki sent a team to Mogadishu to meet Sheikh Ahmad on the deadlocked peace negotiations there.

Kenya is secretly supportive of a regional military action to stop the SCIC from plunging the neighboring countries and the international community into another wider conflict, which is what is feared to be the worst-case scenario for the Somali turmoil.

Tuju says the neighbors could soon be forced to intervene, “even militarily,” to stop the Islamist expansion.

Experts say the current deadlock in Somalia could allow the reactivation of dialogue among the various factions and lead to the revival of a peace process in the country.

But the U.S., which is the only other dominant player in the search for Somali peace or the pursuit of its homeland security interests, is pre-occupied with its war against terror.

Frazer, who also met with Yusuf and other leaders of the transitional federation government of Somalia, said the three Al-Qa’ida suspects believed to be in Somalia "are of the highest, highest priority in terms of capturing."

She said U.S. policy around the world was to work with anyone willing to provide information that would help capture members of Osama Bin Laden's terrorist group.

The U.S. is actively looking for three men under U.S. indictment for the 1998 bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.

The three include a Comorian, Fazul ‘Abdallah Mohammad, who is known to have patrolled Somali for a long time until he was spotted there, Kenyan ‘Salih ‘Ali Salih Nabhan and Abu Taha A-Sudani, a Sudanese.

"We ask all parties in Somalia to work with us to render them to justice. Our policy continues to be the same, which is a matter of priority; we are concerned about Somalia becoming a safe haven for terrorists and a source of instability," Frazer said in Nairobi.

Frazer, who described the SCIC as a conglomerate of “moderates and extremists,” said: “They need to come together in a dialogue so that they can create a place in which terrorists cannot have a safe haven.”

The two warring sides are due for the third round of talks in Khartoum later this month to find a way out of their current political deadlock and possibly to cobble together a working political outfit that includes some of the key members of the Islamist Movement.

The U.N. secretary-general’s special envoy to Somalia, Francois Lonseny Fall, who has been the other precipitating factor in the search for Somali peace, told the Somali belligerents during the second round talks to solve their problems through dialogue.

“Consultation and dialogue are not new to you, my Somali brothers. They are an important part of your traditions; they are the very essence of your culture, and they are also in accordance with the values of Islam. This is how you have solved your problems peacefully for centuries,” the U.N. envoy urged.

“This is how you must overcome the challenges that confront you now,” said the former Guinea Bissau prime minister who is encouraging the parties to build on the outcome of the first round of Khartoum talks held on June 22.

The Somali belligerents presented a five-point agenda to the conference in Khartoum, and the U.N. encouraged them to “seize the opportunity” to establish a joint mechanism for monitoring, verification and implementation of agreed conclusions and to move further to achieve lasting solutions to the Somali crisis.

“We strongly encourage you, my Somali brothers present here, to make full use of these talks to work together closely and earnestly to overcome your differences for the sake of your children, your people, and your country,” Fall said.

Fall said earlier meetings in Jowhar would help the U.N. better understand the SCIC.

"We don't have a lot of information on the courts. We don't know exactly what their intentions are," he said.

Security analysts say IGAD states support intervention out of fear of an Islamic state on their doorsteps, while Western governments are worried the country could become a haven for terrorists.

The United States believes that radical SCIC Somalia into a training ground for Muslim extremists. leaders are harboring Al-Qa’ida operatives and are determined to turn

"It is very clear that there are foreign terrorists in Somalia," said Frazer. "We are making the same call on the Islamic Courts Union,” Frazer said.

As part of the plan, IGAD – grouping Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan and Uganda as well as Somalia – has asked the U.N. Security Council to partially lift an arms embargo on Somalia so the interim government can build up its security forces and invite in the African peacekeepers.

But the United States has resisted easing the arms embargo.

"It's something we would consider, but we are still considering it," U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said last month.

The peace support mission aims at strengthening the transitional government's limited authority in the southern and central regions of Somalia, including the capital Mogadishu, where the Islamist courts have established control.

The U.S. strategy to defeat alleged terror elements in Somalia failed in 1993 and Washington has had to live with that embarrassment, but Frazer insists that Washington is seeking alternative ways to stop the expansion of the Islamists in Somalia.

Somalia bears strategic significance for its regional neighbors, because of its long coastal waters and the part it plays in the Ethiopia-Eritrea border supremacy battle. The two hostile neighbors still hold decades-old suspicions of each other.

Source: The Media Line