A crisis that could turn out to be bigger than the Congo imbroglio and do greater damage to the wider Eastern African region, is brewing in Somalia.

The war in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which at one point sucked in Uganda, Rwanda, Angola, and Zimbabwe, was, in real terms, small and primitive.

Small, because none of the countries in it were economic or undisputed military powers in their neighborhood.

Primitive, because it drew in too many bandits and criminal militias, one reason it resulted directly and indirectly in the deaths of nearly four million people.

The long civil war in Somalia had, bizarrely, reached equilibrium with clan warlords controlling and preying on their respective turfs. Within that set up, some of Africa's most efficient mobile phone networks and free trade areas thrived.

These warlord fiefs were, of course, hell for ordinary folks who didn't carry guns. Women were raped with impunity, and there was hardly any education or medical care. It was all quite unsustainable.

More organized, puritan, and with a zero tolerance for crime, in June and July this year the Islamic Courts Union rode the wave of discontent, scattered the warlords, and imposed a degree of order unseen for nearly a decade in the areas they came to control.

But with allegations that it has links to Al Qaeda, the ICU has many people running scared. One of the main beneficiaries has been the beleaguered federal government in Baidoa, which now allegedly enjoys the protection of Ethiopian forces.

Eritrea , which has fought two bloody war border wars with Ethiopia, is accused by Addis Ababa of backing the ICU, as a proxy against its giant eastern neighbor. Now the Islamists have declared holy war against Ethiopia. Already refugees are streaming into Kenya, as defeated warlords regroup to confront the Courts.

The problem is that because Somalia is highly militarized, the refugees include many defeated troops, still armed; so Kenya could soon have a glimpse of what happened when the Interahamwe were routed in Rwanda after the 1994 genocide, and set up militarized mini-states in eastern Congo.

Somalia , however, is more explosive than Congo was because the international stakes are higher. Ethiopia has become a key ally in the West's war against terrorism because, true or not, the West sees it as the great Christian frontline against the southern advance of "Islamic radicalism"

Because of the fear of energizing its internal opposition, the Meles Zenawi government finds it strategically more creative to fight the war for its survival inside Somalia, not on home soil. At the same time, to the extent that there are Arab-radical Islamic forces active in the Horn and northern Africa, they must have taken the peace settlement in Southern Sudan as a great loss. Apart from oil, this is another reason the Khartoum government has taken a hard line in Darfur. It needs to keep the region firmly under its control if only to compensate for the loss of the south. It is therefore rewriting the ethnic map of Darfur, to make a tribally based settlement impossible there.

INFORMED DIPLOMATIC sources allege that in this bigger Arab-Islamic battle against what is seen as a concerted attack from the West, they too have decided that Somalia is where the definitive battle will be fought. There are claims of Egyptian and Libyan military elements working with the Courts. These aren't anything like the Mickey Mouse forces that faced off in the DRC.

The world, might soon have to choose whether to save Darfur, Somalia, or even Ethiopia. It's a choice the international community doesn't relish, so it could decide that the only hope of maintaining any peace is for the status quo in Darfur and Somalia to remain.

Charles Onyango-Obbo is Nation Media Group's managing editor for convergence and new products.  

Source: The East African on October 17, 2006

Home | Contact us | Links | Archives