The Imminence Of A Proxy War In Somalia And Its Ramifications – From A Somalilander’s Viewpoint

By Ahmed Nur Amin – Assad, Cardiff, Wales ( UK)

It was June this year when the Union of Islamic Courts defeated the warlords and took control of Mogadishu. Since then their military advances have been extraordinarily swift and they managed to establish their reign in a number of regions extending as far afield as Kismayo. In less than 5 months they now control more than two third of Somalia ( Somaliland aside).

One major factor of their rapid success could be attributed to the disenchantment of the average local people who had to endure for years of anarchy and insecurity under ruthless warlords who cared only their unrelenting grip of power. If you look at how the conflict first started when the American backed warlords provoked the attack and how their downfall was almost instantaneous, it wasn’t hard to understand that the locals saw it as an opportunity to topple a system which was the source of their misery for over a decade. That’s why the people sided with the UIC to bring about a much longed change.

Now, the relationship between the UIC and the TFG (Transitional Federal Government) has been deteriorating by the day, merely because the Ethiopians who are backing the TFG are worried about a growing Islamist power in Mogadishu. Despite few attempts to negotiate the sides in Khartoum nothing seemed to have materialized, partly because the TFG does not have a political will of their own and they have to follow a political agenda dictated to them. And now it is evident that the US’s policy towards this conflict shifted enormously. In the past, they were reluctant to support the idea of deploying regional forces in Somalia, particularly from the neighboring countries but now it is becoming increasingly clear that they are siding with Ethiopia on this and working on a draft resolution at the UN in few days time[1].

From whichever angle you look at it, a war was imminent even without these latest developments from the UN that foreign forces will be deployed in Somalia. This war which looks set to be a proxy war between two ‘E’ neighboring countries could have a far reaching impact on the whole region, particularly on Somaliland.

Last week the Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said his country is ready for war against the Islamist in Mogadishu and his government had completed its preparations to defend itself from the UIC [2]. One would put that down as a natural reaction to the consistent calls from UIC that it is going to wage a holy war against Ethiopia but to say what the Prime Minister said despite his country’s internal political problems; it is evident that Ethiopia is poised for an imminent war. In my opinion, it is not a question of whether there will be a war but when and how much damage it would cause on the already fragile peace in the region.

Whatever Somalilanders and their government are entertaining themselves, there is no doubt there will be a war in Somalia sooner than many expected and now it is important that the government takes emergency steps to avert looming crisis in the region, at least from its people. Rather than being indecisively silent and inept, the government needs to make its position clear that a war in Somalia is not good for the security in the region and that a proxy war could have a far reaching ramifications in the Horn of Africa. It might seem too late but the government can invite high delegates including the General Secretary himself and his Special Representative to Somaliland to witness the progress of stability and democratization achieved through dialogue and perseverance. This could benefit Somaliland in two ways:

It is no-brainer that the position we – as Somalilanders – found ourselves at this predicament is a difficult one. On one hand we are trying to spare the relationship we have with Ethiopia but on the other hand, the TFG is our worst enemy and we have not been able to convince Ethiopia to abandon their policy of unequivocal support for a warlord who should have been on trial for war crimes. At the end of the day, he is the only friend Ethiopia has in Somalia at the moment and it is their interest to pursue that policy until there is a successor. But I believe if we all stand up to our feet in earnest, maybe we can convince Meles Zenawi to adopt the TFG and force them to stay out of our business.

Finally, I believe there will be a war and could be at an unprecedented level and likely to linger for months if not years, therefore it is vital that our government gets its act together now and does not wait a proxy war which seem to be imminent and could have a far reaching ramifications on Somaliland and its people.

Author: Ahmed Nur Amin – Assad

Cardiff , Wales ( UK)

Email: ahmed.2.amin@ntlworld.com

References –

[1] - ICG’s Somalia Conflict Risk Alert – 27th Nov 06

[2] - BBC Africa News – 23rd Nov 06

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