December 28, 2006

Rob Crilly, who has been covering the conflict in Somalia for The Times, says the Government's swift defeat of the Islamist militias, with   the help of Ethiopia,   suggests nothing more than a return to the political vacuum that has endangered the country for 15 years:

"There are lots of things up in the air today and it's too early to know   quite what   is happening   in Mogadishu, but there are a few things that are clear. The first is that the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) simply could not cope with the firepower of the Ethiopian forces, who are fighting on behalf of Somalia's interim Government.

"The Islamic court militias, mainly made up of young, badly-trained fighters had no answer to the well-drilled, well-equipped Ethiopians and were defeated again and again.

"This has led to a rapid military victory for the Government and the taking of Mogadishu. The question is what happens next. Although until now the UIC was nominally in control of Mogadishu, and much of the country, ultimately power resides with the clan elders. If you have the support of the clan elders, you're in business.

"What we learned today is that last night, the Government approached the clan elders in Mogadishu and asked them to withdraw their support for the Islamic courts. They have done that, and without their backing, the court leaders left the city. What is less clear is whether the clan elders will now stand four-square behind the interim-Government, which beyond the support of the UN and the international community, has little legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary Somalis.

"As for the UIC, they have now suffered a series of setbacks and most of their leaders are believed to be gathering in Kismayo, a town they still control in the very south of the country. Along the way, they have been distributing their weapons and their fighters among the clan elders. Some of the more practical-minded and moderate leaders will be expected to come to an agreement with the Government, but a big question remains over what the hardliners do next.

"Among these hardliners are a group known as the Shabbab: young fighters, fundamentalists, some of whom are Afghan-trained. They are believed to be responsible for the murder of Kate Peyton, the BBC producer, in Mogadishu last year and various attacks on aid workers.

"They really have no option but to fight. They are regarded as outlaws by the Government and may have the capability to launch a prolonged guerrilla war.

"Somalia's problem now is that there is a political vacuum, much in the same way there was six months ago. The Ethiopians have fought their way to Mogadishu, effectively giving the interim Government control over much of the country, but what happens when they withdraw? No one seems to have given much thought to what happens next, or what form a political settlement might take.

"Some of the analysts I have been speaking to today have compared the situation to Iraq: a swift military victory but with no plan for the peace. Somalia is almost back where it was six months ago, before the rise of the Islamic courts. Are they finished for good or will they come back? Or will the Government be able to win enough support in Mogadishu?"

Source: Times Online