ANALYSIS

By Rashid Mustafa X Noor

27 December 2006

The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) forces had retreated by Tuesday, 26 December 2006 from all fronts in the Bay region, Diin Soor, Buur Hakaba, Idaale and Moode Modde and had lost control of Bandiiradleey, Cadaado and Galinsoor towns in the central Mudug region of Somalia to the invading defense forces of Ethiopia.  

“The UIC are in full retreat”, Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi said on the very same Tuesday. "We have done more than half of the mission. As soon as we finish that mission we won't be there long. We are not dying to stay there. Our army will not be needed once the operation is completed", Meles said.  

The UIC on the other hand, said their retreat from those fronts once controlled by their forces is a tactical move and not a defeat. The UIC said that they will resort to other tactical methods to combat the Ethiopian forces. The UIC declined to disclose these new methods in their Tuesday press conference held in Mogadishu.  

Meles Zenawi, just like President George Bush (Jnr) on the eve of the Iraq war has a clear-cut mission, sounds familiar, but unlike his counterpart George Bush (Jnr), is sure of himself in that in a matter of weeks he will get the ‘job done’ and his ‘army will not be needed once the operation is complete’.  

What we can understand from the Ethiopian Prime Minister’s Tuesday press conference in Addis Ababa is :- a) the invading defense forces of Ethiopia will not attempt to capture the Somali capitol, Mogadishu, but only go as far as its outer-laying reaches, b) curtail the UIC’s forces and its sphere’s of influence to only the city of Mogadishu, c) eliminate UIC extremists who will be no longer in a position to dominate the UIC, d) open dialogue between the TFG and the UIC moderates in the hope of accommodating the UIC in the Baidoa administration.  

How practical is Meles’s mission?  

From one standpoint, former warlords chased out of Mogadishu and in the other regions by the UIC are accompanying the Ethiopian forces to reclaim their formerly ill-gotten fiefdoms. By Wednesday 27 Dec. 2006, Muhammed Dheere, the onetime Jowhar town warlord and governor of Shebeele Dhexe region was successfully reinstated by the Ethiopians. The effect this will have inside Mogadishu and its surrounding regions is very much predictable, and Meles knows this more than anyone.  

The Ethiopian Prime Minister, has for 16 years been cleverly playing, balancing, stripping and seducing the Somali clans against one and other in Zone 5 region of Ethiopia for much to his own agendas. The culture of the Somali clanship is known to be the most important factor in determinating the outcome of any political event taking place in and around any Somali society.  

The Somali clan phenomena  

Muhammed Dheere, belongs to the native clans of Mogadishu and who’s territory stretches from Mogadishu to Jowhar, 90km N-East of Mogadishu. His clan (clan ‘A’) lost the most when the UIC came to power in June because the UIC belonged to another clan (clan ‘B’) who happened also to be their arch rivals.

After the downfall of the dictator Siyad Barre, clans ‘A’ and ‘B’ fought a two year long bloody civil war in Mogadishu. When 80% of the top leaders and fighters of the UIC are from clan ‘B’ and warlords chased out of Mogadishu by the UIC are 70% from clan ‘A’.  

It’s only, natural for clan ‘A’ to harbor resentment and ill feelings towards the UIC. Clan A is 45-50% of the population living in Mogadishu. Clan ‘A’ is also greatly marginalized in the UIC leadership and in its forces. Although, the executive chairman of the UIC, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed is from clan ‘A’, many hold the view that he has no whatsoever relevance within the organization.  

Put, Muhammed Dheere, who is of clan ‘A’ back in power and the UIC having been badly bruised, battered and holed up in Mogadishu by the occupying forces of Ethiopia, what do you get?  

For sure the UIC will not hold on to much of Mogadishu and will end up back from where they spearheaded their revolution before their rise to power in the months of April, May and June this year. The UIC will be pushed back to their city clan quarters in Mogadishu.  

Enemies of the UIC  

The UIC, will also have to face the wrath of the Qaat/mirra importers and dealers (mild narcotic plant stimulant chewed by Somali men), who lost substantial monies due to UIC banning the mild stimulant in areas they controlled. Great majority of these qaat/mirra dealers used to operate with large private armies and still have stashes of light arms hidden in the city. A weakened UIC inside Mogadishu will be at great odds with the city’s Qaat/mirra importers and dealers and will eventually fade away leaving much of Mogadishu to warlords and bands of lawless gangs.

The UIC were unpopular in many of the areas they once controlled because of their strict interpretation of the sharia law, deemed by much of the Somalis as eccentric and unconventional. Already, we have witnessed the jubilation of Beletweyn and Jowhar residents when Ethiopian backed Somali forces entered these towns. The same will apply to other Somali urban centers and in general the populated areas of the countryside currently in the hands of the UIC.  

Aftermath of UIC downfall  

In a matter of weeks the once mighty and invincible forces of the UIC will become a thing of the past. Ethiopian/USA backed warlords will reap their former lost spoils and glory left behind by the UIC. All in all, business will be as usual again in Mogadishu and rest of what’s left of former Somalia, i.e., the same as it’s been for the past 16 years, a failed and lawless state.  

Conclusion  

Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, will succeed in destroying the UIC, but will, nevertheless, fail in his mission to establish a unified government under the umbrella of the TFG.  

Abdillahi Yusuf, President of the Baidoa based TFG will not be in a position to move his government to the capital Mogadishu, due to clan politics. His parliament divided between Baidoa and Mogadishu will create a quagmire of problems for his administration.  

The speaker of the parliament is at odds with the President and Prime Minister M Ali Gedi, and is currently based in Mogadishu allied with the UIC. The speaker of parliament is with 60 – 70 renegade members of the ‘Baidoa’ based parliament in Mogadishu.  

The probability that the speaker of parliament and his group of Baidoa renegade MP’s in Mogadishu will try to relocate the ‘Baidoa’ parliament to Mogadishu is real. Some of the renegade members of the ‘Baidoa’ parliament in Mogadishu have publicly said in the past that ‘they fear for their lives if they return back to Baidoa’. Because they had openly opposed the deployment or intervention of foreign forces in Somalia earning the wrath of the Ethiopians and Abdillahi Yusuf in Baidoa.  

The reinstated warlords will also rally to this call and will invite the president to move his seat of government to Mogadishu. This way, the warlords will continue to hold on to their fiefdoms because they know full well that Abdillahi Yusuf will reject this invitation.  

In the short term, the TFG will at the end of the day be better off than it was in pre-UIC days. It will be in a position to govern regions once occupied by the UIC; mind you this is if the Ethiopian forces continue their presences in Somalia. And this will be very unlikely if we are to go according to Meles Zenawi’s words “Our army will not be needed once the operation (destruction of the UIC) is completed".  

And in the long term, the Somali people in former ‘Somalia’ will be left worse off than they were during the height of the UIC regime, because the UIC managed to unify much of the central and southern regions of Somalia under one single administration and brought security and tranquility to regions under their control. The likelihood of the TFG or its warlords doing the same is very dim.  

Rashid Mustafa X Noor is based in Hargeysa and is an associate editor/producer of Somaliland Times, an English language weekly newspaper published in Hargeysa, Somaliland ......Rashidnuur@yahoo.com

This article first apppeared in Garowe Online 27/12/06

Comments: Emails relating to the above article ------------------

From: ****************
Subject: Re: Your Analysis!
To: "rashid nur" <rashidnuur@yahoo.com>
Date: Wed, 27 Dec 2006

Dear Rashid,

Your analysis of "...what after Ethiopia's victory..." left me gasping for air! You have made some suppositions based on your clear understanding of "clanism" in Somalia. What was missing in your analysis is a list of options and tentative solutions. Ethiopia can not solve what the Somalis themselves have decided that they are incapable of solving. As you will agree with me, this is not a good recipe for nationhood! One thing is for sure: Ethiopia does not want an inch of Somali territory. Ethiopians just want to live in peace without the threat of endless and meaningless calls for jihad by its neighbors! We hope that day will come soon!

Yours truly,
*************

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Date: Thu, 28 Dec 2006
From: "rashid nur" <rashidnuur@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: Your Analysis!
To: *************

Dear ********

Thank you for your comments. Because of the complexities involved in the Somali crisis, I took the trouble to enlighten you a little more than that was mentioned in my analysis.

My analysis attempt’s to firstly, expose the true intentions behind Ethiopia’s invasion of Somalia and secondly, tries to objectively predicate what’s to come once the UIC are defeated. The analysis clearly points out that the Ethiopians have only one interest in this war and that is to destroy the UIC and once this is achieved the Ethiopians will retreat back to their country’s borderline.

All the article is pointing out is “The Ethiopians will leave as soon as they complete their mission goal, and once they leave things will be the same as it was before the UIC surged into power, in other words, warlords will rule again in Somalia and the TFG will carry on again the label of ’the Weak’ Somali transitional government”

I gave a hint in my analysis, to one ‘tentative solution' for the ongoing Somali crisis and this was “The TFG will be in a position to govern regions once occupied by the UIC; mind you this is if the Ethiopian forces continue their presences in Somalia”. I say this because the TFG is made up of warlords who were responsible for the past 16 year’s of mayhem. That is, warlords who rule their own ‘Emirates style’ fiefdoms are at the same time also, the TFG’s chief executive officers (cabinet ministers).

The defence forces of the TFG are an amalgamation of private and clan armies belonging to the warlords. Now, If the TFG is left to its own doings and the Ethiopian forces were to leave Somalia, what can we expect of the warlords? We, can expect that they will do everything in their power to deny the fermentation of the TFG to gain control of their fiefdoms and the country as a whole.

But, if the Ethiopian forces continue their presence in Somalia, the warlords will have no option but to tow the line of the TFG. Without an intervention force the TFG has no whatsoever semblance in Somalia.

Because, the international community has forced upon the Somalis the TFG as their sole representative government of their country without their ‘grassroots’ consensus it can’t do without the protection of a foreign intervention force.

And by hook and crook, again, once more the TFG is forced upon the Somalis by the international community thanks to the Ethiopian defence forces who had the USA government’s blessings.

There are no other ‘tentative solutions’ applicable the while the TFG is active in the political arena of the Somali crisis and continues to be the international communities ‘darling’ or chosen ‘scarecrow’ entity representing Somalia. It either gets a foreign intervention force to protect it or it becomes the superficial entity it was before the UIC gained momentum.

On the other hand, if the TFG mandate is brought to an abrupt end by the international community and in its place a peace and reconciliation conference is initiated inside Somalia and is managed by Somalis, and Somalis are left alone to solve their differences, Somalia will be a viable state again.

I agree with you that Ethiopia only wants a peaceful Neighbour to co-exist with, and that the UIC were a serious threat to the entire region’s stability.

Regards,
Rashid Mustafa

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Date: Thu, 29 Dec 2006
From: ****************
Subject: Re: Your Analysis!
To: "rashid nur" <rashidnuur@yahoo.com>

Dear Rashid,

I am grateful to you for taking time to write back. Given your additional analysis, I am afraid that I may have to concede the point. What we all hope, however, that Somalia would once again become a country---a country of a very proud people and at peace with itself and its neighbors, particularly Ethiopia. As you well know, we are brothers and sisters, we are kin, and we are related by blood: by blood as a result of intermarriages and by blood because we have both paid and sacrificed for each other!

Rashid, if you are in the West, I wish you a Happy New Year!

Thank you so much for honoring me by taking time to write back!

Yours truly,

*************