ANALYSIS

Els De Temmerman

Kampala December 27, 2006 – By deploying troops in Somalia, Uganda risks being dragged into a regional conflict - Ethiopia versus Eritrea - and into the much bigger war on terror - the US and its allies versus the Arab world, writes Els De Temmerman, The New Vision Editor-In-Chief

Somalia disappeared from the map in 1991, when former President Siyad Barre was ousted and the country plunged into civil war and anarchy.

One of the world's poorest countries, Somalia is also one of the most homogeneous. Its 7.5 million people share the same language, religion and culture.

But they are split into clans and sub-clans, which have been fighting for power and the distribution of the country's meager resources for the last 15 years.

An estimated one million people died due to fighting and famine.

Thirteen efforts were made to help Somalia set up a government. The latest attempt led to the formation of a transitional government in Nairobi in October 2004, to be in office for five years.

A president was elected, who appointed a prime minister. The East-African countries under IGAD resolved to send a peace-keeping force to protect the transitional government.

But from the onset, the new government and parliament were bitterly divided over the location of the capital and the deployment of foreign troops, particularly from arch enemy Ethiopia.

According to the Charter, the capital is Mogadishu. But President Abdillahi Yusuf has refused to go there, citing security concerns. He could not be convinced, even when the Mogadishu warlords, several of whom are ministers in his government, started disarming their militias.

The lack of courage and leadership displayed by Yusuf is seen as one reason for the present crisis.

Considered a stooge of Ethiopia, the president took over one year to return to his country. He remained in Nairobi until the Kenyan government gave him an ultimatum to leave. He then flew to Jemen, where he stayed for some more months. When he finally set foot in his country, he opted to make his base in Jowhar, a town north of Mogadishu, where he was kicked out early this year by a local warlord who demanded huge sums of rent.

The government moved to Baidoa, 250km west of Mogadishu. But even there, it seems, they are not safe. Both the president and the prime minister survived suicide bomb attempts in recent months.

The delay in the deployment of the peace-keeping force is seen as another reason for the current crisis.

The UN Security Council only last month lifted the 1992 arms embargo to allow for the entry of weapons for the use of the peace-keeping force. The US was initially opposed to easing the sanctions. Washington was grooming other plans for Somalia.

Concerned about the growing influence of Muslim fundamentalism, and convinced that elements of the Islamic Courts were behind the 1998 terrorist attacks in Kenya and Tanzania, the US started funding the Mogadishu warlords to rout the sheikhs.

Reliable sources told The New Vision that Washington paid $1.8m per month to the warlords between January and June 2006 to capture the sheikhs and hand them over to Ethiopia.

The move backfired, as the population rallied behind their sheikhs and the militias of the warlords defected to the Islamic Courts.

Many believe the ousting of the powerful warlords and the capture of Mogadishu by the Islamic Courts would not have been possible without the support of the population.

The Islamists were initially welcomed in Mogadishu. They restored law and order and removed the numerous roadblocks, where militiamen high on mirra would extort money from travelers and traders.

They also cleared the city of debris and garbage, reopened the port and the airport, and revived some basic services, such as schools and hospitals.

But the Islamic Courts continued to advance and capture more territory, threatening now also the government seat, Baidoa.

To neighboring Ethiopia, this was seen as a declaration of war, more so as reports leaked that Eritrea had sent arms and fighters to support the Islamists.

Ethiopia sent in thousands of troops in recent weeks and bombed two airports on Monday to rout the Islamists. In response, the Islamic Courts have appealed for foreign fighters to join their troops in a "holy war" against Ethiopia.

The concern of the predominantly Orthodox-Christian Ethiopia is more than just having a Muslim fundamentalist country, introducing Sharia in East-Africa, next door.

Ethiopia is also worried that the Islamists might revive the dream of the Great Somalia - the star with five points as pictured on the Somali flag.

Twice, attempts by Somalia to re-annex Ethiopia's eastern province, the Ogaden, which is inhabited by Somalis, led to a devastating war between the two countries. Losing the eastern province after it already lost the north, Eritrea, would lead to a complete break-up of Ethiopia. The Oromo in the south, who also fight for self-determination, might follow suit.

But Ethiopia is particularly interested in having access to the sea. It already lost the Red Sea ports, Massawa and Assab, after a bloody war with Eritrea.

It desperately needs the Somali ports, not only for trade but for their very survival. An estimated 10% of its population is dependent on food aid every year, due to rapid population growth, lack of improved agricultural methods and scarcity of arable land.

For the US, too, the advance of the Islamists in Somalia is a cause of grave concern. Washington believes that the Islamic Courts are controlled by the East Africa cell of al Qaida.

It will not tolerate that a Muslim fundamentalist regime takes over this strategically vital country at the Red Sea, bridging Africa and the Arab world.

Mindful of their disastrous intervention in Somalia in the 1990s, depicted in the Hollywood film "Black Hawk Down," the US now prefers to support an African force to eliminate the terrorist threat.

The consequences of Uganda getting sucked into the Somali quagmire cannot be foreseen.

Source: The New Vision