Somali Islamists weakened but not defeated

Fri Jan 5, 2007

By Katie Nguyen - Analysis

NAIROBI (Reuters) - If words are matched by deeds, expect Somalia's Islamists to rise from the ashes of a defeat by Ethiopian troops who forced them from strongholds into hiding.

The movement seemed unstoppable six months ago when it seized Mogadishu from U.S.-backed warlords, opened long-abandoned facilities like an international airport, created its own police force and dispensed justice through sharia law.

But faced with an onslaught by Ethiopian tanks, troops and jets defending the interim government, the Islamists' control over much of south Somalia crumbled in just two weeks.

Though looking at their weakest yet, the Islamists -- who formed the Somalia Islamic Courts Council (SICC) and numbered between 3,000-4,000 fighters at their height -- are not a spent force and may resurface rebranded and reformed, analysts say.

Addis Ababa need only look at history to realise that.

Between 1992 and 1998, traditionally Christian Ethiopia invaded Muslim Somalia to attack members of al-Itithaad al-Islaami, largely dismantling the militant group Washington says is linked to foreign terrorists.

But a decade later, the leader of the group's military wing, Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, re-emerged as the chairman of the "shuura" or consultative council of the SICC.

"There's no reason to believe Aweys will disappear forever," said a foreign-based Somali analyst, who declined to be named because he often travels to his homeland. "I'm confident this is not the last time we see the Islamic Courts."

Even as the Islamists scattered underground, including possibly to Ras Kamboni on the south coast near Kenya's border, they vowed "destruction and doomsday" on Ethiopian troops.

"If the world thinks we are dead, they should know we are alive. We will rise from the ashes," spokesman Abdirahim Ali Mudey told Reuters from a hideout.

The rhetoric reinforced fears the Islamists' hasty withdrawal would spawn a guerrilla insurgency, playing to the strength of their armed Shabab wing of young radicals.

Goading them on was a purported audio tape by al Qaeda deputy leader Ayman al-Zawahri, which on Friday urged the Islamists to launch an Iraq-style insurgency of suicide and other forms of attack against Ethiopian forces.

Two assaults on Ethiopian troops in as many days -- an ambush that killed a soldier and a grenade attack -- have raised jitters among Somalis, afraid the insurgency may have started.

STAYING ALIVE

The Islamists' immediate priority may be to stay alive as Ethiopian helicopter gunships clatter over the remote bushlands of southern Somalia, Kenya tries to seal its border, and U.S. warships prowl offshore to stop their leaders escaping.  

Despite the interest of Addis Ababa and Washington in capturing the SICC top ranks they depict as al Qaeda-linked extremists, analysts were sceptical about the chance of success.

Washington has failed to capture three men wanted for twin bombings on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania since the 1998 attacks and accuses the SICC of giving them safe haven.

Mindful that its last mission to Somalia ended in military humiliation in the 1990s, the United States is unlikely to launch a costly operation to pursue the suspected bombers.

"The U.S. has been saying they will seal the shoreline, but I do not think they want to make a big footprint militarily there, for fear of a backlash," said Michael Weinstein, a politics professor at Indiana's Purdue University.

Faced with the same international scrutiny, Ethiopia says it wants to withdraw within weeks -- but that may depend on the speed with which an African peacekeeping force can be approved and assembled to replace them.

So what are the Islamists' options?

"I don't see they're in a position to regroup militarily, nor do I susbscribe to the idea of Iraq or Afghanistan-type suicide bombings -- it's simply not the Somali way of doing things," said David Shinn, a former U.S. envoy in the region.

But two Somali analysts said hardliners may try to establish a command centre in Ras Kamboni, a former al-Itithaad base, and from there deploy groups of insurgents as snipers or bombers.

Before it was routed the SICC alienated itself from the ordinary Somalis who put it in power by imposing strict sharia law on a nation of moderate Muslims -- banning Bollywood films, World Cup soccer and khat, the hugely popular narcotic leaf.

Experts say the Islamists will have to study the mistakes that led to their rapid fall from power and make concessions to win crucial public support for any return to succeed.

In their favour, the government is militarily and politically weak, meaning it relies on Somalia's traditional old foe Ethiopia. Also, the government's triumphalist rhetoric and the return of warlords have already disenchanted many Somalis.

"The guerrilla part of their strategy is probably what's going to return them to the arena," said an expert on Somalia based in east Africa.

"The courts are not disempowered, but I think the structure and tone will change to bring on board nationalism."

(Additional reporting by Andrew Cawthorne)

Source: Reuters

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