Addis Ababa, February 5, 2007 – The African Union (AU) has several goals and plans. These range from achieving the objectives of the MDGs and NEPAD to passportless travel within African and developing African football.

Lofty as its goals may be, it is facing difficulties in overcoming the challenges it encounters. The crises in Darfur and Somalia are its major challenges. As much has been said about Darfur, we will be focusing on Somalia.

The situation in Somalia changed dramatically within a short period of time following the joint exercise of Ethiopia and the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia. The extremists were routed; they have no power and territory under their control; the TFG has the upper hand. The AU may not be facing a serious challenge by the situation prevailing in Somalia up to now. But it will soon be under considerable pressure for the Ethiopian defense forces are withdrawing from Somalia.

The AU's biggest challenge is to deploy an adequate and competent African force in Somalia once Ethiopian troops totally withdraw from Somalia. Some African countries have pledged to contribute troops to the force. But their number falls for short of the required strength, some are prevaricating. And among the countries that have pledged troops some have gone back on their promises.

The issue, however, is not only about having a sufficient number of troops. It's also about having the belief and the desire to carry out the mission. The Ethiopian defense forces know the country and the people well. Their replacements from other African countries many not find it easy to discharge their peacekeeping duties. In addition, the issue of financing the force is another challenge. It will not be difficult to get it for the short term. Securing it for the long term is another matter.

Therefore, one of the toughest challenges before the AU is to come up with a force that is sufficient in number, financially secure and able to adapt to the peculiar condition of Somalia in carrying out its mission.

The other issue that is of concern to the AU is to ensure that African countries actually implement the decision to bring about peace and stability in Somalia.

Different African countries have different interests and motives as regards Somalia. Some neighboring countries have security concerns. The agenda of the likes of Eritrea is to destabilize the region. Countries which are both members of the AU and the Arab League are confused where their loyalty lies given that the AU and the Arab League are not on the best of terms.

There are also other players involved. Although the AU may have been playing the leading role in resolving the Somalia problem, the UN and the US have their own agenda in the matter, namely that on security. The strategy and approach of the UN and the US is not always compatible with the AU's. The AU was tasked with deploying peacekeepers in Darfur with a view to bringing stability to the region. Even though it has sent troops to Darfur towards this end, the crisis has got even worse. Thus the AU is expected to surmount this challenge. It should, however, be underscored that this will not be an easy task.

There is also another challenge which is not openly acknowledged but which, nonetheless, will have to be addressed. This is the status of Somaliland. At the international level there exists a consensus that there should be only one united Somalia. On the other hand, Somaliland has declared independence and is seeking international recognition. So how can this impasse be resolved? By giving recognition to Somaliland? By denying it recognition? Through a federation? A confederation?

This issue is not the concern of the AU alone. Other actors also have their own interest. Reconciling the interests of Mogadishu and Hargeysa while accommodating that of other countries is bound to be fraught with unique problems. This is another challenge facing the AU which requires its careful handling.

The Somalia issue has a feature that distinguishes it from serious developments that occurred elsewhere in Africa. What makes it different from the conflicts in Liberia, Rwanda, Congo . . . is that there is a terrorism dimension to it. The Somalia issue is not all about terrorism. But terrorism is one aspect of it. This makes the issue a complex one and difficult to handle. It requires tact and striking the right balance.

The AU should demonstrate its unity, credibility and capability in dealing with the Somali issue. The accusation that the AU's summit of African heads of states is incapable of solving African problems can be laid to rest through concrete action that achieves results.

The AU particularly needs to show its capability at a time it is confronted with a crucial and complex problem. Given that the problem in Somalia is crucial and capable of getting out of hand, the AU should exert every possible effort to resolve it. This needs to be done in a manner that does not aggravate the problem or the victory achieved thus far to be lost. Therefore, the Union should immediately devise a strategy that enables it to successfully maneuver the challenge before it.

Source: The Reporter