By Abukar Y. Sanei

The claim of a "progress" in Somalia has been made by Vicki Huddleston, the former acting US Ambassador to Ethiopia and a nonresident senior fellow of Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings Institution. Mrs. Huddleston has made her assessment of "progress" in Somalia at the Council on Foreign Relations [CFR]. In addition to this report, on January 3rd, 2007, she wrote an op-ed to the Washington Times. In this article, which was entitled "Opportunity in Somalia," she accused the Arab League that they were siding with the ICU, despite the fact that Sudan has played a key role for mediating between the ICU and the TFG. And who was responsible for the failure of the negotiation process between the TFG and the ICU is really controversial. Therefore, praising Ethiopia for its meddling into the affairs of Somalia or the AU for its readiness to send troops to Somalia, and belittling any efforts that might be provided by the Arab League is not, in fact, a productive assessment. The Arab League, which Somalia has a membership with, has a role to play in Somalia, and their role should be valued and recognized by the international community.

However, with respecting of Mrs. Huddleston's view and how she sees the status quo, at this time, it's hard to come up with a conclusion that there is a "progress" in Somalia. In fact, the roads of opportunity and progress in Somalia have not been taken yet, and what is seen now is just a failure.

The notion that the TFG has aborted to achieve its goals may not be digestible for some people, but it's a fact that we have to say it. The TFG is the only responsible institution that should properly function in Somalia, but until now, it has not come up with any thing that can be called a progress in terms of peace and security, but what has been seen so far is a killing and terrifying of the people of Mogadishu by using the Ethiopian mortars. For instance, a dictatorship attitude or a "sectarian dictatorship" as Professor Abdi Samatar put it, has been enforced by the TFG after it's announced a "martial law," which means that during the martial law period, no one can hold it accountable for what it is doing on the ground. In this case, it is not clear how the TFG deals with the captured of the ICU and anyone who is not a member of the ICU, but fights against the Ethiopian presence in Somalia. Will they be having a justice and privilege of due process or another Guantanamo will be created for them in Addis Ababa? This is not clear yet. In addition, oppression against the media is enforced by the TFG while some media networks have been ordered to "watch out" their reports about the operations done by the Ethiopian and the TFG forces.

The ultimate objective of the founding of the TFG was to reach out the Somalis and bring them to a genuine reconciliation table, but that doesn't seem happening now. For instance, even though Mr. Yusuf called for reconciliation conference, there is still a mistrust within the Somalis and the TFG. Furthermore, it is not clear how and where the so-called reconciliation conference will be held. The "moderate" group from the Islamic Courts Union, which has been promoted by the US and the EU, is currently neglected by the TFG. This comes true when Mr. Yusuf was asked about "moderates" of the ICU, and his answer was, "I don't know any moderates, but if you know them [talking to the questioner] bring their list to me, and I will have a dialogue with them." What kind of dialogue that he will be having with them? Handing them to his special forces and putting them in a military court? Who knows! For instance, how is it possible that the EU and the US know who the "moderates" are, but Mr. Yusuf doesn't know them? Of course he knows them, but what is not known yet is whether he wants to include them in the next reconciliation conference or not. Does this attitude show any "progress" in Somalia? The simple answer is negative. The reality is that the TFG seems that it is failing to have an unfeigned reconciliation conference for all Somalis, and what it is doing now is "pick and choose" which will never produce a unity government in Somalia. This attitude is also one of the causes of the EU's reluctance to provide the necessary funds for the AU mission to Somalia.

Since Ethiopian forces invaded Somalia at the end of 2006, bloodshed and chaos are once again becoming normal in Somalia. The rise of the insurgency groups in Somalia is the outcome of this invasion. For this reason, every day conflict between the TFG forces with the support of the Ethiopians versus the insurgency groups are reported by news agencies and independent Somali blogs. The lives of innocent people in Mogadishu have been endangered and at the same time bombarded by the Ethiopian missiles. These daily attacks forced the Mogadishu residents to flee from their houses in order to find out a peaceful and secure places rather than living with the Ethiopian mortars in Mogadishu. As some analysts described the current issues before, security is out of hand and every thing comes back to square one because of the presence of the Ethiopian troops, and the returning of the warlords, who are always supported by Ethiopia.

Based on these facts that have been on the ground since the Ethiopians came to Mogadishu in last December, someone may not claim that there is a progress in Somalia. Ousting the ICU from the scene without having an alternative way to meet with the needs of the society at large cannot be called a progress. In order to come up with a progress, these following points must be met: 1- Ethiopian forces should pull out from Somalia as soon as possible, and troops from the Arab League [the UN should rectify the resolution of 1725 by adding Arab League troops to deploy in Somalia] and the AU should come and help the TFG. This will help to stop the every day clashes between the Ethiopian troops and those who are fighting against them. 2-The TFG leaders should be open-minded and evaluate themselves whether they are in the right direction or not. This means they should address about the problems and its solutions frankly, and encourage everyone to be part of the success. For instance, this will eliminate the dictatorship attitude, which is now in place but not helpful for the TFG and its followers. 3-The next reconciliation conference should be open for everyone, and special priority must be given to the "moderates" from the ICU, and the TFG must not pick and choose who is going to participate in this coming conference.

Unless you have these three points on the ground, it's hard to claim that there is a progress in Somalia.

abukar12@yahoo.com