Analysis by the Somaliland Times

Despite the promising picture painted on an almost daily basis by various figures in the US administration about the prospects for Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government, the facts on the ground show quite the opposite. Instead of a real government in charge of a territory and providing services, what we see is a weak entity that was further de-legitimized by the Ethiopian invasion and that is getting weaker and weaker. Here are some of the TFG’s latest setbacks:

1. The bloody war in Mogadishu between Ethiopian troops and insurgents which exposed the deep unpopularity and the strong opposition to the TFG

2. The postponement of the much trumpeted reconciliation conference

3. The defection of Hussein Aidid to the opposition camp

4. The posting on many Somali websites of a recording of clannish anti-Hawiya statements made by Abdillahi Yusuf

5. The obvious disarray in the TFG where the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing. For instance, the Governor of the lower Jubba, Ilyas Badal Gaboose has said he is ready for talks with the Islamic Courts, whereas Ali Gedi and Abdillahi Yusuf insist that no such talks will take place

6. The TFG’s failure to secure the support of the Arab League countries despite the pressure exerted by the US on behalf of the TFG

7. Eritrea’s success in not only holding together the opposition, but also in attracting into the opposition’s fold other prominent players such as Hussein Aidid

8. The inability of the Ethiopian army to score a decisive victory against the insurgents in Mogadishu (Ethiopian troops could not even collect the corpses of their dead soldiers which were left to rot or were dragged in Mogadishu’s mean streets).

As we go to press, there are no signs that things are going to get better for the TFG in the long run, either. The biggest problem is that Abdillahi Yusuf and his current backers ( Ethiopia and the US) are hated in Mogadishu, and no amount of rosy statements by US officials is likely to change that.