Somalia Still Dangerous And Unstable

EDITORIAL

Although Abdillahi Yusuf and Ali Geedi have been loudly proclaiming that they won the war against Mogadishu’s insurgents, such utterances should be taken with a grain of salt. Yes, the Ethiopian troops did force out the insurgents from their positions after relentless heavy bombardment, but many of those insurgents have simply melted into the general population and are still in Mogadishu, which means they may strike at any moment. So, in all probability this is not the end of the conflict, but rather the end of a particular phase and the beginning of another.

The truth of the matter is that the situation in Somalia is as dangerously unstable as ever. Somalia’s Embagathi Faction (a.k.a Federal Transitional Government) cannot even stop its own militias from killing each other, let alone do something for the people. For instance, in Kismayo, the TFG’s coalition that took over after the Islamic Courts were defeated has split and one faction (Majeerteen) was chased out of Kismayo by the other (Marehan). Serious disputes between various factions were also reported in Beledweyn which led to the declaration of a curfew there. On May 1 st, one of Ali Geedi’s bodyguards opened fire on people at a market in Baidoa killing one person and injuring several others. When it is not their bodyguards or militias that are busy killing people, then the heads of the TFG themselves do it, as when Salad Jeele “deputy minister of defense” ran over a civilian with his car.

The appointment of Mohammed Dheere to the position of governor and mayor of the Banadir region, and Abdi Qaybdid as commander of police is one indication of the desperation of the TFG. Mohammed Dheere and Abdi Qaybdid are notorious warlords. Both of them were against the TFG until they were driven from Jowhar and Mogadishu by the Islamic Courts.

Mohammed Dheere’s contempt for Abdillahi Yusuf was such that once he called him, “a Darood street hustler.” So these appointments have all the markings of a marriage of convenience.

The events that took place in Kismayo and other places, show that Ethiopian troops will have to occupy every city, town and hamlet in Somalia, outside Majeerteenya (Puntland), in order to keep it under the TFG’s rule. This is a tall order for Ethiopia, and it’s not in its interests.

Source: Somaliland Times

Home | Contact us | Links | Archives