Somalia – After the Islamists

The US has kept its involvement in the Somalian conflict to a minimum in recent years

Nairobi, July 18, 2007 – InTheNews.co.uk's Alex Stevenson summarizes the divisive power struggles which have contributed to the present conflict.

Build-up to the December war

Bereft of central government since 1992, Somalia spent the opening years of the 21st century a divided, anarchic state. Warlords from the country's tribal areas vied for control and power. It was only in the second battle of Mogadishu in May 2006 that one power began to emerge – the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC).

This Islamist group controlled much of Somalia during the second half of 2006. The autonomous Puntland and Somaliland regions in the north remained free of their influence, while the weak transitional government of Somalia itself was confined to a handful of provinces in the south-west, centered around Baidoa.

The December war

Reports of troops from neighboring Ethiopia massing on the border with Somalia brought the usual threats of retribution from the Islamists. After a deadline ran out on December 20th the Islamists attacked, opening the conflict as fighting broke out with government troops between Mogadishu and Baidoa on December 21st.

Troops loyal to the transitional government had struggled against the Islamists for much of the year in minor skirmishes and looked to be performing similarly in the early stages of fighting. But a decisive shift occurred when military reinforcements from Ethiopia flooded into Somalia, however, driving the Islamists back.

UIC militiamen were forced into a retreat back to Mogadishu on Boxing Day and by December 28th were in the process of abandoning the capital, retreating to their last stronghold of Kismayo in the country's extreme south.
A new instability

Pursuing Ethiopian troops forced the Islamists out of Kismayo on New Year's Day, beginning a new era for Somalia.
Despite the first open intervention against the Islamists by the US, who bombed a Somali village on January 8th, the UIC remnants vowed to continue their fight.

Somali president Abdillahi Yusuf brokered a peace agreement with a number of warlords, convincing them to step down from their anti-establishment stance and contribute their militiamen to the national army.

But while this was a major achievement, the threatened insurgency centering on Mogadishu began to unfold as feared.

The insurgency in Mogadishu

Dozens died in the Somali capital during the first two months of 2007. Armed clashes gradually increased "in frequency and intensity", according to the International Committee of the Red Cross, leading hundreds to flee the city to avoid the fighting.

In response the African Union approved a force of 8,000 peacekeepers in February, mainly made up of Ugandan troops. With the remnants of the Ethiopian forces who had forced out the UIC in the new year they faced the task of ensuring security in the capital.

Their presence failed to prevent the outbreak of two major periods of violence in March and April. Mogadishu was hit by three days of fierce fighting at the end of March, as insurgents roamed the city's streets and terrorizing villains.

"Scores of people have been killed and hundreds of wounded have been admitted to the hospitals and other medical facilities of Somalia's capital," the ICRC said on March 30th.

In total around 200 were reported to have died in this uprising – the same amount reported dead in a second campaign of guerilla resistance three weeks later in April.

Roughly 300,000 people have been displaced as a result of the conflict, according to figures compiled by the UN.

Update – July 16th

Efforts to bring reconciliation to Somalia are continuing to be blunted by the ongoing Islamist insurgency in the country.

President Abdillahi Yusuf Ahmed is attempting to bring more than 1,300 delegates together in a peace conference in the Horn of Africa country's capital, but mortar shells fired on government buildings have forced two postponements of talks.

The insurgency has not diminished since the Islamists were ousted from power last December and Mr Ahmed himself admits only the presence of Ethiopian and Ugandan troops is keeping him in power.

The US, which set up its Africa command earlier this year, has yet to intervene in the situation. It did dispatch a warship to bombard a remote village in the north of the country in what it said was an attack on suspected al-Qaida targets on Saturday June 2 nd

Source: InTheNews.co.uk

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