By Suleiman Sultan/Seattle

There are five tragedies that led to the sad state of affairs for Somaliland:

1. Robbing of the 2003 Presidential Election.
2. The illegal arrest of the Haatuf Journalists
3. The unlawful arrest of traditional leaders
4. Blockage of Harbi Ships from Berbera
5. The Kidnapping of Qaran Leaders.

I am shocked and dismayed by the arrest of the Qaran Leaders. Dismayed but not surprised. We all know throughout the last five years the primary victims of Riyal’s gangs’ state terror were Somaliland citizens. Neither Rayale nor his gang of four has ever had any use for the rule of law, except their version of the law: Obey the government at any cost or else. Now with the kidnapping of the Qaran leaders this has become catastrophe of historic proportion. The current political harassments and horrors are compounded by the fact that we have seen this sad movie before and this situation could have been prevented.

This is the beginning of the end for his regime but – the worst is yet to come. The cruel irony of history as Hussein ELmi so eloquently pointed out in his article “Somaliland People Never Learn from History.” is that it repeats itself again and again. We are here again, Somaliland citizens are getting arrested at will again! Now this has reached comic proportions. How did we get here again? Why do the brave people of Somaliland who sacrificed so much last time around, take their eyes off the prize again? When are the Somaliland people going to learn and say NEVER again and actually mean it?

The election of the parliament was a moment of hope and the president deserves credit. Unfortunately, the hope of the Somaliland people has been dashed with those aforementioned political tragedies, and countless others, and it is reasonable to assume that there is more to come.

I believe the reign of terror that is engulfing Somaliland today has its roots in the following five unchallenged tragedies:

1. Robbing of the 2003 Presidential Election.

During the 2003 election the Rayale administration was not sure that it commanded the respect of the country and thus could win a national election. The presidential hopeful was timid and did not believe he could win a national election against a national hero. Inside information confirmed that he was adamant in stressing that nothing of the sort was even a remote possibility. When the election results came in, their nightmare was realized and the Rayale administration saw they did not have the numbers to win the presidency. Their candidate was reluctant to steal the election and confided to close advisors that he was afraid that there was going to be popular uprising and riots in the major cities. But he was pressured to do so by some of his ministers, who knew they would have no political future if Rayale lost the election, so they urged him to steal the election, and he reluctantly agreed. These ministers came to be known as the gang of four, all losers who had never amounted to anything and had never held decent jobs. When that did not work, these same ministers pressured him to have the court to declare him the winner of the election. Therefore, Rayale was selected by the Supreme Court and NOT elected by the public.

Once he saw stealing the election did not provoke any outcries, he was pleasantly surprised. This emboldened him and his ministers who urged not to accept the results of the election and relinquish power. This reaffirmed those few ministers’ belief that they were right all along and knew that opposition parties’ leaders would not anything that might potentially destabilize this infant democracy. Today, the real power is wielded not by Rayale but by a group of hooded gangsters masquerading as ministers. Their tactics resemble that of Afweyne. If you cannot buy them, bury them.

I don’t want to paint with a broad brush and infer that all the government ministers are bad—there have been smart and decent ministers in his government, especially in the early days, who argued against these reckless actions.

We all know Sillanyo won the election. The facts are not in dispute, and need not be reviewed here. But Kulmiye Leadership made one gigantic mistake by accepting the so called court ruling. I understand and admire the noble courage it took for Sillanyo and Kulmiye leaders to put the interest of the nation above their political ambitions. But this was a big mistake. There should have been demonstrations on the streets of every city in Somaliland.

We all acknowledge and are proud of the enduring heroism of our people, but we also know that it takes a long time for the public to wake up and take actions.I hope we don’t wait another 30 years to act.

2. Arrest of the Haatuf Journalists

The second tragedy that Rayale got away with was the constant harassment of Somaliland journalists. This was most dramatically illustrated by the unlawful arrest of the Haatuf journalists, Ali Dini and Muhammad Omar and their courageous editor Yusuf Gabobe. What was their crime? They reported what all know but few are willing to publish. They were charged of defaming Rayale and his family by accusing him of corruption. They dared to speak out against the corruption of Rayale and his family and as the Africa Press pointed out” authorities are ready to commit any kind of abuse when journalists criticize the president and his associates This aggressive use of the police and judicial system is liable to undermine the credibility of all the efforts since 1991 to turn Somaliland into a democratic enclave” (Africa Press Release).

To point out the corruption of his family is seen unpatriotic and a threat to the national security! The threat to the national security is always exaggerated to allow the government to intimidate journalists, traditional leaders, political leaders and citizens and imprison them at will. It is extremely alarming to see the ever increasing rate of retaliations against journalists who had the courage to report the exponential rate misappropriation of state funds and the intensification of intimidation and imprisonment of anyone who says truth to power. This should really got rid of the illusion some people had about the press freedom in Somaliland and as the Somaliland Times reported “The president’s behavior, and the fact that many of those in charge of important institutions that are supposed to protect the public have colluded with him in taking revenge on Haatuf reporters, has convinced even the most gullible that Somaliland is ruled by a lawless bunch who will not stop at any thing in order to protect their ill gotten gains”

Not challenging the continued arrest of journalists in Somaliland is real tragedy and we are all paying the price for it.

3. Blockage of Harbi Ships from Berbera

The third tragedy transpired when Rayale’s well trained dogs threatened the business of the eastern region by blocking Somaliland ships that were perceived to be pro opposition. This was a campaign to stamp out anyone deemed as a threat to their ruling and to hit where it really hurts-the pocket. The clearest example of this dangerous revenge motivated procedure is the Harbi Ship that was send back without unloading and was not allowed to dock Berbera Port. People should have gone to the streets and should have started fighting back. There is a deliberate and calculated plan by the gang of four to not just harm but destroy any business man/woman perceived to be supporting the opposition. This ultimately led to targeting the Harbi ship. The questions is, whose business is he going to target next and what are going to do about it?

There are anonymous but confirmed reports that this order to block the ship was authorized at the highest echelon of the government. This was a gruesome illustration of an administration that is intoxicated with arrogance.

It’s quite important to remember how much suffering we went through as a people the last time we failed to act against a dictator. If history taught anything it is this: It is only through deeply committed popular struggle that dictators are toppled and rarely through the ballot box. It is unlikely that Rayale is going to go away even if he loses the election. He will just steal it again and it should be easier the second time around. Both the parliament and opposition parties have been very ineffective so far challenging Rayale and his gangs.

4. The Unlawful Arrest of Traditional Leaders

The fourth tragedy is the continued and consistent gross violations of the respect and rights of the traditional leaders. The most recent example was the unprovoked arrest of Sultan Osman Sultan Ali. And what was his crime? He dared to advise the government to have some respect for the sharia and people to practice their religion. This is considered supreme crimes and condemned him to Mandhera prison. Baseless and arbitrary arrests of Somaliland civilians and their traditional leaders should never go unchallenged. Harassing and intimidating any leader who has courage to tell people of Somaliland about their Islamic duties shows Rayale’s utter disregard for our religion, culture and traditions. Rayale and his gangs have become the masters of the manipulation game by waging a dirty war and imposing silence and censorship on the whole country.

Any of those major incidents should have served as a warning to the danger of things to come but they all went unchallenged. And now that he has the twin forces that are necessary for a dictator to stay in power and reign supreme- money and military-he is convinced that he will be a president for life and so are his cronies.

5. The Unlawful Imprisonment of Qaran Leaders.

The fifth and final major tragedy, that was not challenged, was the kidnapping of Qaran Leaders, Dr Gabose, Eng. Mohamed Hashi and Jamaal Aideed.. This is the biggest political blunder and the beginning of the end for the sinking ship of Rayale’s government. The events in the past few weeks are particularly shocking because they illustrate the continued assault against the people of Somaliland and anyone seen as an imminent threat to his political survival, will one way or another be bought, silenced or arrested. The people of Somaliland are blinded by their love for their country and are hoping and praying that he will go away. He will not.

The recent arrests evoke bitter memories among our people and we are witnessing a tragic replay of events of 1980s. These moves reflect the disdain of the administration for the rule of law and his lack of respect for individual rights and the constitution. Any political challenge will be met with brutal force but soon or later Rayale is going overreach and then people will wake up.

Are we there yet? The popular reaction to him will not take place until the population grasps the nature of the danger that he posing. When he starts arresting not a few well known but everybody, and believe me you, it will happen. This is a gradual process and if history has taught us anything it is this: Dictators start their oppression very slowly and once they realize how much they can get away with, they go full frontal attack. This was illustrated most dramatically by the recent decision to arrest Qaran Leaders. This is very crucial step and there is no going back. Look for mass arrests and killings. His grand strategy is based on the assumption that the opposition parties will complain and cry unfairness, blah blah, blah, but will do nothing else. That is the only thing I agree with this administration. Nothing begets nothing and that is where we are, friends, back to the drawing broad.

As Dalmar so beautifully put it, ” Somaliland government spewed out yet the most palpable propaganda against Qaran party. According to the inept leaders of our government, Qaran poses threat to the stability of Somaliland. Absolutely ludicrous”.

What happened in those five major tragedies - or more important what did not happen- had an enormous impact on the psyche and confidence of his administration. They were testing the waters like any other dictator. At first, he was like; oh my God we did it. The second time he was like we did it again. And now, I am untouchable and I can do anything I want. He should have been stopped probably the first time and definitely the second time

The real threat to Somaliland today is not Rayale, but the false belief of people that they can not challenge the government and the undeserved respect that the guy on the street has for the “resident” of the presidency and the rule of law. Maybe they think that” The strong do as they can, while the weak suffer what they must”.

Unless we make it very clear the stakes are so high and that he and his ministers will pay a heavy price for harassing, intimidating and arresting citizens without a due process, he will continue business as usual. For instance, some ministers who made a business threatening and harassing civilians should be publicly embarrassed and their names listed in all newspapers. We also need massive protests of unprecedented scale in front of the madaxtooyada every day.

It seems that once again as so many times in the past, people will get stuck holding the bag again. Religious, political and traditional leaders, journalist, intellectual and poets should worked harder than ever to keep the likes of Rayale and his inept and corrupt ministers from pulling the wool over the eyes of their fellow citizens

The fact that most people do not believe that they can make a difference and kick the rascals out is what is so tragic. But, if history taught us anything it is this: People will eventually prevail over tyrants.

May Allah help and protect the Somaliland people by giving them leaders who cherish the rights and dignity of their citizens.

Suleiman Sultan/Seattle