Even the parts of Somalia that were steady are looking shaky again

Oct 4th 2007 - A PECULIARITY of Somalia is that while the south of the country, including its broken capital, Mogadishu, has burned, the north has been stable. Now, to the horror of those trying to put Mogadishu back together again, the north is beginning to crack too. Fighting broke out this week between Somaliland, the northern strip that has been virtually independent of the rest of the country for some 16 years, and Puntland, a semi-autonomous territory in the north-east (see map). Somaliland says it has driven Puntland forces out of Los Anod, a town in the disputed Sool region, killing six Puntlanders and injuring or capturing another 40-plus. Puntland says its soldiers have retaken the town. Yet another war seems to be breaking out.

Sool is split between sub-clans backing either Somaliland or Puntland, while some of them want autonomy for Sool itself. Somaliland, a former British colony that was separate from the larger parts that were run by Italy, declared independence in 1991 and has since sought international recognition. Puntland's sense of identity is less strong; it has seen itself as a building block for a future federal Somalia.

But Puntland is losing its grip. The Sool dispute has been compounded by the secession of much of the Sanaag region from Puntland, to form yet another self-governing entity in the north. Drawing on its history as a sultanate, Sanaag declared independence in July, renamed itself Makhir, and chose Badhan as its capital. Tension between Makhir and Puntland is high.

A still worse headache for Puntland is the departure of its strongman, Abdullahi Yusuf, to become president of Somalia. He ran Puntland with authority and ambition, grandiosely hoping to turn it into the Horn of Africa's Dubai. When he went south, he took with him a lot of Puntland troops, vehicles, weapons and ammunition. Their departure emboldened other northerners with dreams of secession or autonomy, and may give Somaliland the edge if the dispute over Sool leads to war.

Oil and gas add fuel to the ferment. Exploration rights in Puntland have been sold several times over. Somalia's prickly prime minister, Ali Mohamed Gedi, was furious when Mr Yusuf signed oil agreements without telling him, including one with a Chinese company. Mr Gedi has also refused to endorse exploration deals signed by Puntland's government.

Meanwhile, Mogadishu is getting worse again. Fewer children are going to school. The city's markets are stagnant—quite the opposite of the government's assertions that things are back to normal. Government troops and the Ethiopian forces propping up Somalia's government are still being attacked by bombs, grenades and snipers of the Islamist militias ousted by Ethiopians early this year. The African Union promised to send 8,000 peacekeepers and then hand authority to a UN mission later this year. But several AU countries failed to honour their pledges. Uganda is still the only African one to have sent troops; with just 1,600 of them there, the UN is unlikely to come in and take over.

The American administration and other Western governments still want to back Somalia's transitional government until elections due in 2009. A recent reconciliation conference in Mogadishu passed off without rancour, itself something of a success, and was bolstered by the apparent failure of a rival meeting, mainly of Somali Islamists, in the Eritrean capital, Asmara.

Source: The Economist