November 09, 2007

A spokesman for Somalia's Hawiye clan said on Thursday that clan elders are ready to convince rebel forces to stop attacking Somalian government and Ethiopian forces on the condition that Ethiopian troops withdraw from the country, Somalian media reported.

But even if there is a peace deal in Mogadishu, it might not bode well for peace in the Horn of Africa.

The Hawiye is one of Somalia's two dominant clans, and more importantly, it is the clan that gave rise to the Supreme Islamic Courts Council (SICC), which was driven underground by Ethiopia's invasion in December 2006. The clan is divided, however, over how to handle Somalia's government and the Ethiopian troops sustaining it. Thursday's offer came as the former political head of the SICC, Sheikh Sharif Ahmed, speaking from the Eritrean capital of Asmara, ruled out any peace talks with Somalia's government and vowed to fight Ethiopian forces until they are driven from Somalia.

The divisions within the Hawiye clan will make it almost impossible for Somalian President Abdullahi Yusuf (who hails from the country's other dominant clan, the Darood) to believe that the Hawiye will really guarantee his and his government's security in the event of a peace deal. Neither Yusuf nor his government have been able to make real inroads into Mogadishu, and security in the city continues to deteriorate under almost daily fighting between Ethiopian forces on the one hand and Somalian and Islamist fighters on the other.

However, striking a deal with the Hawiye elders offers one significant possibility for the Ethiopians that could overrule any concerns they might have for Yusuf. The Ethiopians could say with a certain degree of truth that they are striking a deal with the faction of the Hawiye that legitimately represents the clan -- Sharif Ahmed is in exile and Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, chief of the SICC's militant wing, remains underground. By announcing that a legitimate peace has been achieved, Addis Ababa can move to bring home its troops, who have been taking almost daily casualties ever since their invasion -- a move that many would applaud.

But a withdrawal of Ethiopian troops would raise immediate fears in Eritrea that those Ethiopian forces, battle-hardened and fed up with the Eritrean-supported armed insurgency they have been fighting in Somalia, would mobilize to invade Eritrea instead. Ethiopia and Eritrea have essentially been fighting a proxy war in Somalia, and continue to keep thousands of troops on ready alert along their shared border -- a border they fought a war over in the late 1990s. Ethiopia has never really accepted Eritrea's independence, and Eritrea has never accepted the possibility of being folded back into Ethiopia. With the internationally mandated Ethiopia-Eritrea Boundary Commission threatening to rule by the end of November in favor of the current border demarcation, Ethiopia might believe its only alternative is to invade and create a new reality on the ground.

A peace deal in Mogadishu could also impact, in a positive sense, maritime shipping along Somalia's coastline. Somalia has experienced a rapid return to maritime piracy this year, with most incidents occurring along the southern and central coastlines; practically no pirate attacks occurred under SICC control in the second half of 2006. Piracy in Somalia is primarily a means of generating income, as most cargos are held for ransom or stolen and sold. A peace deal with the Hawiye could have the result of reducing piracy again, as the clan could turn to other means of generating income, such as taxes on cargo and on personnel traffic in and out of the area's ports and airports.

A peace deal between Ethiopia and Somalia's Hawiye clan has not yet occurred -- and it might not. Such a deal could serve the interests of both the Hawiye and the Ethiopians -- but it might just move the fighting somewhere else.

Source: Stratfor