by Abdulkarim Musse Meigag

Kulmiye party, the supposedly the most democratic political party compared to other existing parties in Somaliland, is undergoing a serious soul searching crisis. The executive committee seems to have lost reality and in the process derailed all prospects any success against the current administration in the upcoming elections. Without consulting the Party executive, the Chairman is bent on playing the tribal card in the delegate selection to the frequently postponed party convention. Clan politics is not the right path to realize a lifetime dream to lead a constitutional state. The end does not justify the means.  A party convention along tribal lines is a nonstarter; it is very divisive and no one in his right mind would float this nonsense. This will lead the party self-destruction. The only acceptable formula for delegate selection and allocation should be based on the average of the total number of the past two national elections. The breakdown of votes on regional basis is the fairest and most equitable model.

Now that the convention date is set and the municipal and presidential elections are fast approaching, it’s necessary for Kulmiye executive committee, if still in existence, to agree on a process to guide its members and to hold a fair and a convention acceptable to the grassroots. Although the convention is scheduled for March 29th – 31st, the party hierarchy, including the chairman, so far refused to give any details. This is against the party constitution, by-laws, and other procedural guidelines.

In the following few paragraphs, I’ll try to identify and analyze some facts that will enable the executive members to make its decisions. I’ll demonstrate and extract the truth with facts and figures taken from our own past elections data based on 2003 Presidential election and 2005 House of Representatives.

The response to this dilemma relies on this analysis:

2003 Presidential election
 
AWDAL HARGEISA SAAXIL SANAAG SOOL TOGDHEER Total

UDUB 43347 79328 17554 23359 3715 38105 205408
KULMIYE 16607 81585 10271 27830 5524 63506 205323
UCID 5976 47951 2712 6749 463 13453 77304
              
Total Valid Votes 65930 208864 30537 57938 9702 115064 
Source: Somaliland election department

The total national votes were as follows:
Udub: 205,408 votes or 42.08 %
Kulmiye: 205323 votes or 42.07 %
Ucid: 77,433 votes or 15.85 %

The national distribution of votes per region was as follow:

Source: Somaliland election department

- Hargeisa  - 208,864 votes or 42.00 %
- Togdheer – 115,064 votes or 24 %
- Awdal – 65,930 votes or 14.00 %
- Sanaag – 57,938 votes or 12 %
- Saaxil – 30,537 votes or 6 %
- Sool – 9702 votes or 2 %

2005 House of Representatives election

AWDAL HARGEISA SAAXIL SANAAG SOOL TOGDHEER Total

UDUB 74691 81552 21793 34727 9157 39529 261449
KULMIYE 26837 95881 12355 36652 8964 47639 228328
UCID 31492 75796 18331 17907 2436 34583 180545
Total Valid Votes 133020 253229 52479 89286 20557 121751 670322
Source: Somaliland election department

The total national votes were as follows:
Udub: 261,449 votes or 39.00 %
Kulmiye: 228,328 votes 34.00 %
Ucid: 77,433 votes or 27.00 %

The national distribution of votes per region was as follow:

Source: Somaliland election department

- Hargeisa  - 253,229 votes or 38.00 %
- Awdal – 133,020 votes or 20.00 %
- Togdheer – 121,751 votes or 18 %
- Sanaag – 89,286 votes or 13 %
- Saaxil – 52,479 votes or 8 %
- Sool – 20,557 votes or 3 %

What does it mean for Kulmiye?

Within this context, we must proceed with caution analyzing how much votes Kulmiye political party received in 6 (six) regions in both national elections. To minimize any errors/ misleading numbers of votes, a weighted mean is used to calculate the average votes from both elections.

President election votes + H. of Representatives votes  = Average votes

KULMIYE VOTES AWDAL HARGEISA SAAXIL SANAAG SOOL TOGDHEER TOTAL
2003 Presidential election 16607 81585 10271 27830 5524 63506 205323
2005 House Representatives  26837 95881 12355 36652 8964 47639 228328
Mean 21722 88733 11313 32241 7244 55573 

- Hargeisa  - 88,733 average votes – 41 %
- Togdheer – 55,573 average votes – 26 %
- Sanaag – 32,241average votes – 15 %
- Awdal – 21,722 average votes – 10 %
- Saaxil – 11,313 average votes – 5 %
- Sool – 7,244 average votes – 3 %

Selection criteria

As it is impossible to invite everyone in the convention, let’s use a proportional representation which needs to be discussed between the executive members:
The numbers of delegates in the convention should based on two criteria:
A – Financially feasible
B – Suitable location
C  - No greater than 500 delegates

If agreed, then… Numbers of votes / 433

1 – Hargeisa: 88733 votes - 205 Reps

2 – Togdheer: 55573 votes - 128 Reps

3 – Sanaag: 32241 votes     - 74 Reps

4 – Awdal: 21722 votes    - 50 Reps

5 – Saaxil:  11313 votes    - 26 Reps

6 – Sool: 7244 votes      - 17 Reps

National Delegates to the Convention: 500 Members

500 Delegates are required for the convention and will fit perfectly to our three based criteria above noted.

I believe it seems reasonable economically and it will be easier to find a very good location to accommodate 500 delegates and also easier for the party to finance and hold its convention in a democratic manner. This process is a clear and concise fairness and without prejudice contrary to the previous failure attempts.

My suggestion is that the chairman in each of the six regions will have the authority and responsibility to select the grass roots Kulmiye population in each village, county, and city from allocated members,

It is the responsibility of the executive committee to draft detailed guidelines for regional chairmen to follow.

Sample: Hargeisa selection

From the 205 Representatives – guidelines could be such as:
 
- 10 % allocated to women – 20 Reps

- 20 % allocated to recently university (graduated) – 41 Reps

- 50 % allocated to active members (supporters) - 102 Reps

- 20 % allocated to senior members (supporters) - 41 Reps

Kulmiye Representatives in the House of Parliament

It has been circulated in the local media that members of Parliament from Kulmiye party would like to interfere with the convention process of selecting delegates. I, personally, believe that their role of responsibility as parliament members of Somaliland will not allow them to participate during delegates’ selection period. If they do so, it will be another manipulative and deeply divisive within the party. The responsibility of the members of parliament should be confined to overview the convention process and consult within the executive committee on the benefit and successes of the convention.

Conclusion

I would like to conclude that this analysis is based on solid facts and figures from the results of our past national elections. I would like to emphasize to the responsible members of Kulmiye political party to analyze, review, debate, discuss and study this process for not only our own success of holding a fair and a democratic convention, but a starting point for all other political parties in Somaliland.

My advice to the executive committee and to the members of parliament of Kulmiye party is to evaluate this process as a foundation or backbone for future conventions. This will strengthen us and will put first in line as a winning political party, ready to govern Somaliland.

Let’s be a winning team and give example to the rest.

Abdulkarim Musse Meigag
Toronto, Ontario, abdulkmu@yahoo.ca