15 May 2008

Few months after the former Union of Islamic Courts’ forces routed Mogadishu warlords in 2006, Kismayo, the port town and the administrative capital of Lower Jubba region, had become the main conquest target for the UIC. Although Barre Hiiraale, former member of Jubba Valley Alliance, tried to broker peace between the Transitional Federal Government of Somalia and the Union of Islamic Courts, he was against deployment of Foreign troops in Somalia.

When the Union of Islamic Courts made it clear that they will've to take Kismayo by force, Barre Hiiraale sought consolation from his allies, Yusuf Seeraar and Goobaale, but both men supported their clansman, and fellow warlord Shiekh Indha’adde, then Defence Chief of the Union of Islamic Courts. The Union of Islamic Courts captured Kismayo peacefully; Barre Hiiraale and his loyalists fled the port city and went, crestfallen, to Baydhabo, where the Transtional Fedreal Government was based. It was an unexpected turn of events: one time opponent of the TFG’s plans chose to rely on the TFG to recapture Kismayo.

When Union of Islamic Courts’ forces were defeated by Ethiopian forces in December 2006, Barre Hiiraale, who at that time was TFG’s Minister for Defence, worked hard to revive his militias and make sure that Kismayo become a hub of his clan. Few months ago, the Somali president Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed told Universal TV that Kismayo is run by anti-TFG groups. Now kismayo is ruled by clan militias who pledge allegiance to a couple of warlords including Barre Hiiraale. Security situation is deteriorating in the port town. Al Shabaab insurgents captured Kansuuma district, roughly 90 KM north of Kismayo, and it is likely that their presence may frighten fragmented clan militias in Kismayo into voting with their feet just as they did two years ago. No TFG institutions have taken shape in Kismayo, but the Mogadishu based Transitional Federal Government hardly labelled Kismayo an insurgents’ stronghold.

A senior  leader of Al Shabaab, Sheikh Hassan Turki, is based in the Lower Jubba interior near Kismayo, so clan militias in Kismayo are in a catch-22: they cannot fight insurgents in the south and north of Kismayo simultaneously, and their antagonists are part-religious and part tribal, a deadly combination although the religious dimension makes the tribal one less conspicuous.

The TFG’s and Ethiopian forces’ response to Lower Jubba region may turn out to be as calculating as the operation that snuffed out key Al Shabaab leaders in Dhusamareb almost one month ago. They will wait for the outcome of the current stand-off to see if Al Shabaab can capture Kismayo. Demoralized clan militias in Kismayo are allied with neither the TFG nor with Al Shabaab insurgents. It gives the TFG a stronger case to devote men and materiel to Kismayo, one-time metropolitan city whose people suffered under marauding clan militias.

Source: Somali Press Review