26 May 2008

Vice-chairman of the Sudan Popular Liberation Movement (SPLM), Riyak Mushar, arrived in Khartoum to conduct talks with leaders of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in an attempt to avert an escalation toward renewal of civil war.

The eruption of violence in Abyei last week has jeopardized the fragile peace agreement between the two sides.

Abyei is an oil-rich area near the boundary between Sudan's north and south, and is claimed by both the Arab north, controlled by the NCP, and the Christian and animist south, controlled by the SPLM.

United Nations-sponsored talks to end violence in the oil-rich town Abyei collapsed last week.

Reports indicated that 22 soldiers were killed and 45 were wounded in the clashes, while the number of casualties from among SPLM ranks and the local population is so far unknown.

Most of Abyei's 90,000 residents have fled the town. Eyewitnesses report that many homes were burned down during the fighting.

"The NCP talks but does not act… and it is wrong if it believes SPLM is unable to respond," said Dinq Alour, one of SPLM's top leaders.

Alour further described the presence in Abyei of the 31st Brigade of the Sudanese army as an announcement of war, warning that the SPLM would not stand idly by and that it would take a decision very soon.   

Administered from Khartoum the northern region of Sudan holds special administrative rights over Abyei, and a 2011 referendum will determine whether this status remains or whether it will be incorporated into the south.

A comprehensive peace agreement was signed between the north and south in 2005, but the parties have been slow in implementing the cease-fire and many obstacles remain, one of which is the boundaries and status of Abyei.

Meanwhile, Sudanese President 'Umar Hassan Al-Bashir announced last week that his government was no longer bound by the Darfur cease-fire. Al-Bashir made his announcement less then two weeks after a failed coup of the Darfuri Justice and Equality Movement (JEM).

Al-Bashir further warned that his army would "deal swiftly" with the rebel groups in Darfur, and ordered his security forces to arrest all JEM members in Darfur and throughout Sudan.

Sudanese are now waiting to see what Al-Bashir's next move will be. While many believe he will order his army to launch a massive attack on Darfur, some experts are more doubtful.

"One of his problems in Darfur is that much of the rank and file of his military comes from that region, so they are not entirely trustworthy in terms of his ability to use them against people from their own area," Dr. Richard Cornwall, a senior research associate at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria, South Africa, told The Media Line.

Cornwall nevertheless believed that Al-Bashir would take a hard line after the attempted military coup.

"He may also try to involve forces from the south of the country," said Cornwall.

Shortly after the May 10 attack, Vice-President Salva Kiir, who also serves as SPLM chairman, offered his assistance to Al-Bashir in the fight against JEM.

According to Cornwall, if Al-Bashir asks for military assistance from the SPLM, this might give the organization a bargaining chip in terms of three disputed areas, including Abyei.

A military strike in Darfur would also further hamper the deployment of the United Nations' peacekeeping mission in the region, which has so far suffered from multiple delays, due partly to Khartoum's lack of cooperation.

Source: The Media Line