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Somaliland's High Risk Approach To Djibouti |
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Issue 337 |
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In the recent war between Djibouti and Eritrea , Somaliland 's government had three options: to stay out, to take a balanced position, or to take sides. Somaliland decided to take Djibouti 's side. Not only that, but Somaliland's government made it clear it was siding with Djibouti before its delegation even arrived in Djibouti . In other words, Somaliland took Djibouti 's side without any negotiations or preconditions, which means that by the time Somaliland's delegation got to Djibouti , it had already given away whatever leverage it had. The question then becomes why any government would weaken its bargaining position by giving away for free what the other side wants, and then expect that other side to reciprocate. The answer to this question is that Somaliland's politicians confuse inter-clan or individual behavior with the behavior of states. In this case, Somaliland's government thinks that giving free and full-throated support to Djibouti in its hour of need would convince Djibouti of Somaliland's goodwill towards it, which in turn would spur Djibouti to treat Somaliland as a good and caring neighbor rather than an adversary. Of course, there is something to be said for coming to someone's aid in a strong and timely manner, but there are at least three obvious drawbacks to such policy. One, this approach may work in relations between individuals or between Somali clans, but it does not necessarily work between states. Second, Somalilanders have already contributed a lot to Djibouti but that has not stopped Djibouti from engaging in hostile activities against Somaliland , so why would it be different this time? Third, unlike Somaliland , Djibouti is not a democracy where citizens who want better relations with Somaliland can influence their government's decisions. This is why we think Somaliland's current method of handling relations with Djibouti is risky. It gives Djibouti what it wants, then leaves it to her to decide whether it reciprocates or not, which is tantamount to putting Somaliland at Djibouti 's mercy. Moreover, if this new approach fails, and Djibouti does not reciprocate, the sense of let down in Somaliland could be so deep, it would greatly worsen relations between Djibouti and Somaliland and may even cause conflict. At this point, it is too early to tell if Somaliland 's current high-risk policy is going to bear fruit or not, but the history of Djibouti-Somaliland relations gives little cause for optimism. Source: |
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