By Dalmar Kaahin

The same Islamic Court Union I.C.U that U.S.—Ethiopia coalition toppled and accused of having ties with Al—Qaeda in 2006 came to power in January 2009, not because from the barrel of a gun, but because of a popular vote.

However, the U.S. and the International community continue driving a wedge between Somali groups. The West shamelessly continues dividing the Somali factions into moderates and extremist. In June 2008, I have predicted dividing the I.C.U along moderates and extremist will not only undermine the Somali liberation efforts but will also complicate any future peace conferences.  Read the article entitled, “U.S. Wins Dividing the Islamic Court Union” http://www.somalilandtimes.net/sl/2008/334/9.shtml

Meanwhile, through the eyes of many Somalis, warring factions just changed their shirts: they went from tribal warlords to religious ones. But interestingly enough, unlike the former warlords who enjoyed the support of their respective tribes to wage wars, most of the religious warlords have no support from the public beyond the common cause that all Somalis share: evicting Ethiopian troops from Somalia. Nor do the religious factions have excuses to label the new government as a foreign-imposed regime. After all, the new government is led by none other than a popular opposition leader, named Sheekh Shariif and it is formed not in Somalia’s natural adversaries such as, Ethiopia and Kenya, but in Djibouti—a friend of Somalia.

The religious warlords argue that since the new Somali government has been established by the Ethiopians, it has no place in the Somali society. But what they conveniently ignore is that many governments around the world have been brought to power by foreign powers. And after some time these nations stood on their feet. A case in point: shortly after WWII ended, the Japanese, German, Italian governments were installed by the U.S. and its allies. However, today these nations have elected leaders.

Why can’t Somalis do the same thing? Keep the leaders you have today for the sake of peace and bringing back Somalia, and then get rid of all the tainted leaders at the polling stations. Why not take them to the polling stations and humiliate them rather than taking them to killing fields and setting off tribal wars?

Similarly, even the current Ethiopian Prime Minster, Meles Zenawi has been installed by none other than a foreign power: Somalia. If it was not the help he got from the former Somali regime led by Gen. Mohammed Siyad Barre, Mr. Zenawi would not have succeeded in ruling Ethiopia today. In the 80s, during Mr. Zenawi’s struggle against the former Ethiopian dictator Col. Mengistu Haile Mariam, Mr. Zenawi lived in Mogadishu where he got his military skills to uproot the former Ethiopian regime.

Having the preceding facts in mind, the Somali religious warlords’ argument that Sheekh Shariif’s government is a client regime doesn’t hold water. No doubt, Sheekh Shariif has major support in Somalia.

Unlike Col. Abdillahi Yusuf—the infamous former Somali president—Sheekh Shariif enjoys a wide support across Somalia. Somalis view him as a liberator. To the contrary, Col. Yusuf was viewed as a puppet president for foreign powers. Additionally, Col. Yusuf echoed threats against his opponents with the help of Ethiopia. On the other hand, Sheekh Shariif makes peace plea and encourages a dialogue where everyone is welcomed—including Alshabaab.

In fact, an umbrella of Somali clerks reiterates that Alshabaab and other opposition’s groups are fighting a causeless war. "Before Sheik Sharif's election you were all fighting for an Islamic leader, but now you have no excuse," the chairman of the Somali Clerics Council, Sheikh Nur Barood Gurhan states. http://hiiraan.com/news2/2009/Feb/somali_clerics_council_endorses_president.aspx

There is little doubt that much of Alshabaab and other groups’ rants towards the new government have very little to do with opposing a “foreign-imposed” Somali regime but have a lot more to do with power sharing.

Alshabaab and other groups know that they forcefully dislodged the Ethiopian Army from Somalia, despite Ethiopia’s claims that it left because of the Djibouti peace agreement that Ethiopia signed with the I.C.U. Ethiopia desperately needed an exit strategy because the longer it remained in Somalia the more fierce opposition Ethiopia faced and less territory it controlled. So in reality, the new opposition groups are not willing to hand over the liberated nation of Somalia to those who remained in exile during the liberation. This is a valid point that cannot be ignored. And this is what the loud shrills of the opposition groups are all about. These groups know that Sheekh Shariif is popular not only in Somalia but also in Somaliland and in Djibouti.

Even Somaliland opposition parties, UCID and KULMIYE leaders welcomed the new Somali government. Read about the Somaliland opposition parties’ reaction towards the new Somali government. http://tinyurl.com/ctdzvt and http://tinyurl.com/c8uoxq Moreover, the Somaliland vice president, Mr. Ahmed Yusuf Yasin similarly made positive remarks about the new Somali government. Mr.Yasin states, " I have a feeling that we can relate to the administration that [now] took control of the South [regions of Somalia]," http://tinyurl.com/aas6dh The Somaliland leaders' positive reaction towards the new Somali government is unprecedented. In the past, they welcomed none of the previous Somali presidents. Somaliland leaders also warned Sheekh Shariif not interfere Somaliland affairs and its independence.

However, despite Sheekh Shariif's popularity among the Somalis, a number of questions boggle minds: will he fall into the trap of isolating some factions—as the West demands—or will he be the wisest Somali leader that Somalia has ever seen and approach both his opponents and former enemies peacefully? Will he isolate Puntlanders for supporting Col. Abdillahi Yusuf, or will Sheekh Shariif reach them out as to unite the country? Just like the previous Somali president wannabes, will Sheekh Shariif claim authority over the republic of Somaliland, or will he approach it as a separate entity? Will he start hunting down and prosecuting his enemies, or will he take Somaliland’s approach to conflict resolutions? Only time will tell what he will do.

But first, Sheekh Shariif must convince Alshabaab to melt into the background as to not complicate Somalia’s efforts to reestablish relationships with the International community. He also needs to engage power sharing dialogues with Alshabaab. Accepting the Western demands of arresting Alshabaab fighters based on the usual fabricated evidences that link them to terrorism would certainly backfire on his regime, and reinforce Alshabaab’s assertion which states that he has sided with America.  Just as he works diligently to reach out his enemies, he also must convince the International community that classifying Somali factions into extremists and moderates is an obstacle to peace. The world should allow Somalis deal with Alshabaab peacefully.

Taming Alshabaab

Traditionally, Somalis oppose any group that imposes strict rules on them. The fact that Alshabaab chased away well-armed Ethiopians out of Somalia, but failed to overrun the outnumbered and outgunned African peacekeeping forces known as UNISOM in Mogadishu nor evicted them from Somalia, indicates that Somalis have neither a reason to fight, nor a motive to support Alshabaab any more.

On the other hand, many well-known Somali leaders and clerks have been asking Somalis to stop the war because Ethiopians troops left Somalia. Eventually, Alshabaab my dig its own grave; it may face the wrath of the Somali people if it doesn’t disarm itself peacefully. Also, if Alshabaab resorts to detonating explosives against the new government—without a doubt— Somalis will view this group as the first Somali terrorist group.

Another reason the war would end is that the disgruntle Hawiye tribes of Southern Somalia now not only have the president but they also have the majority of the MPs. Again, most of Alshabaab groups who hail from Hawiye will have no incentives to fight.

Alshabaab’s causeless opposition to the new government and its [Alshabaab’s] recent deadly attacks against Somaliland will compel the Somalis to view this group as a cruel organization which is not only threat to Somaliland and Somalia but also brought a new phenomenon in Somalia—suicide bombers.

Doubtlessly, both the Alshabaab and the Asmara—the Eritrean capital—faction of the I.C.U will isolate themselves if they opt to wage war against the new government. The Asmara faction could be viewed as a group that isn’t so much concerned about the interest of the Somali people but eager to make Somalia a battle ground for a proxy war between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  In fact, listening to Sheekh Uways’—the Asmara faction leader—interview with the BBC after Sheekh Shariif’s election shows that he[Sheekh Uways] is not a man of peace, nor does his message of continuing the war make sense, especially after the Ethiopian troops left Somalia.

In short, Sheekh Shariif emerged from a humble local clerk to a president who is willing to make peace with Somalia’s neighbors and concessions with his local rivals. While the U.S. viewed his I.C.U as a group which is linked to terrorists and Alshabaab as a terror network, Somalis viewed these factions as national heroes who would one day prevail. That day has come—therefore, no reason to wage war. The question is: will the liberators engulf Somalia into another fire storm, or will they finally put down the guns?

The Somalis must unequivocally support the new government as long as it is willing to solve conflicts through dialogues and peacefully means. The Somalis need to understand that demanding the new government to take Somaliland’s conflict resolution approaches is the only way forward.

As for the U.S. and its allies, the war on terror has devastated the Somali people and brought Somalia to radical groups—unknown before in the Somali society. It is time to reach out everybody: the “monsters’ and the “extremists” that the war on terror created. It is now or never. This is as good it gets; a new era begins. Help Somalia today because it will be too late tomorrow.

dalmar_k@yahoo.com

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