By Colin Gray
March, 2009
The nation of Somalia, located on Africa's east coast, is described by the New York Times as "the most violent, hungry and smashed-up country in the world." On the Fund for Peace "Failed States Index" for 2008, Somalia ranks as #1.
Ethiopia's recent departure from the country after a 2-year occupation has left 1,600 Ugandan and 1,300 Burundian peacekeepers to maintain order. If no reinforcements are provided, those forces will pull out as well, leaving the nation a power vacuum for the many competing Islamist militias and local warlords, many of which already have connections to Al-Qaeda. While U.S. and European powers are patrolling the Somalian coasts for pirates, they have thus far refused to intervene on the mainland. This could prove to be a fatal mistake. While anti-terrorist attention seems to be focused on the Asian Middle-East, Western leaders cannot afford to forget about the impoverished, problem-ridden nation of Somalia: it is a power vacuum full of the young, the poor, and fundamentalist warlords, and a prime spot for the next major terrorist movement to take shape.
Somalia, a nation of roughly 9 million people, is 100% Islamic. Its per capita GDP (according to the CIA) is 225th out of the world's 229 countries. The land is mostly desert, and only 1.64% of it is considered arable. The countryside is ridden with countless problems, including famine, contaminated water, floods, deforestation, overgrazing, and desertification. These problems are magnified by the fact that the Somalian economy is based primarily on agriculture. While banking, trade, and communications networks are relatively stable and growing in most of Somalia, the industries are completely decentralized due to the lack of power of the national government. As experts Jutta Bakoyni and Abdullahi Ahmed describe, "In Somalia, short-termism prevails. The highly unpredictable situation created by the civil war makes it impossible to undertake any long-term production planning, and in the absence of any legal controls or regulation, everyone seizes every opportunity to safeguard their own livelihoods." Long-term economic growth will be severely stifled if Somalia does not create a strong central government.
There has been no effective government in the country since the dictatorial regime of Siad Barre was ousted in 1991. Instead, order is enforced primarily through negotiation, Islamic law (shari'a), and the threat of violence between the many factions of warlords, Islamic groups, and tribal leaders. While parts of the nation recognize the transitional government, the northwest corner (Somaliland)unilaterally declared independence in 1991 and most of southern and central Somalia is under the influence of a notorious radical Islamist group called Al-Shabaab ("The Youth"). The transitional government does not have the power to collect taxes, provide social services from education to infrastructure, or exert any control over the majority of the country.
In addition to the lack of a central government, Somalia has the ideal demographics of a terrorist hotspot. The nation is young: 44.7% of the Somalian population is less than 15 years old and the median age is 17.5 years. A study by the European Commission in 2003 found that only 6000 students were enrolled in secondary school in the entire country. In a similar 2006 study, that number had risen to 20 000, still far below necessary enrollment rates. The current generation has grown up with hunger, instability, and war. Additionally, the government has no armed forces to combat a revolt. If the power of Islam -- the only unifying force between tribal groups -- can be harnessed by fundamentalists and used to control the impoverished, war-stricken youth, the results could be disastrous.
Fundamentalist terrorism is already taking hold in much of Somalia. Many extremists threaten terror in response to Western enforcement of anti-piracy laws, as piracy is a major source of revenue for many Somalian warlords. The country has been rated the most dangerous place in the world for journalists, and attacks on neighboring countries have been happening for some time (one 1998 attack on Kenya, for example, killed 200 people). Al-Shabaab, a fundamentalist group accused of ties with Al-Qaeda, exerts control over most of southern Somalia. Al-Qaeda itself has officially publicized the country as an ideal training ground for potential terrorists, and many have answered the call.
If the current African Union peacekeeping forces leave a power vacuum in Somalia, the western world may be in serious trouble. The mixture of a powerless government, a fundamentalist influence, and a demographic susceptible to extremism makes the country exceptionally dangerous. Just like in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan, a centralized, democratic government must stabilize the nation. Economic growth to curb extremism is paramount. The West cannot afford to ignore Somalia, and it certainly cannot afford to forget it.
Source: Stanford Progressive


 

Home | Contact us | Links | Archives | Search