Dr. Terry Lacey
Development Economist
With Indonesian general elections due April 9th polls show the Islamic Parties are headed for their worst election performance ever.
In 1955 the religious parties won 43.7 percent of the votes, while nationalist parties got 51.7 percent. In 1999 they hit 36.8 percent, rising to 38.1 percent in 2004.
Now all 9 Islamic-based political parties will be lucky to get 17 to 23 percent of the poll, says the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. (Jakarta Post 18.03.09).
This not linked to a minority of militants undermining the moderate majority, or getting the jitters from jihadists, or being bothered by the Bali bombs and Bin Laden.
This is about the consolidation of leadership of the largest secular Muslim-led democracy in the world during an economic crisis.
There is no room for egos, splits and moralizing about allegedly sexy traditional jaipong Javanese dancing. It is the Islamic parties who are not attractive.
The new generation Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) did well in 2004 gaining 7 percent of the votes, electing legislators and mayors and joining the ruling coalition. But it is said performance in local government was poor on issues like garbage collection.
Once religious parties started to exercise power after the fall of Soeharto, they got their hands dirty, not only with garbage, but with real politics.
The involvement of representatives of Islamic-based parties in corruption cases undermined their moralistic appeals. The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) has just arrested Abdul Hadi Djamal of the National Mandate Party (PAN).
Meanwhile legislator Al-Amin (which means trustworthy) Nasution of the Islamic-based United Development Party (PPP) has just been jailed for eight years for taking bribes.
Zainal Abidin, Director of the West Java Islamic Center says although most Indonesians support Islam, they are not drawn to parties demanding shariah law or mixing religion with traditionally secular government, “Indonesian Muslims are themselves afraid of their own religious law”, he said. (Jakarta Globe 17.03.09).
So the creeping advance of opportunistic, inconsistent and amateur shariah law at local government level has lost votes, not gained them.
Yet in 1999 a coalition of Islamic parties helped Abdurrahman Wahid (a liberal Muslim intellectual popularly known as Gus Dur) to win the Presidency, beating the PDI-P’s Megawati Soekarnoputri (daughter of President Soekarno) in the presidential elections.
Political analyst Ikrar Nusa Bhakti of the Indonesian Institute of Sciences said recently that unresolved disputes have torn apart the country´s main Islamic parties. (Jakarta Globe 17.04.09).
The PAN and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have both suffered personality disputes leading to new splinter parties.
Gus Dur leads the traditional PKB faction, but the official election status and party machine was taken over by Hasyim Muzadi, in a struggle between modernists opposed to a dynastic leadership and traditionalists.
The struggling Islamic mini-parties still have a role to play says Yudi Latif, Chairman of the Paramadina University Center for Islam. “The big parties will badly need support from these Islamic parties to meet the electoral threshold of 25 percent of popular votes to nominate presidential candidates” he said. The presidential direct elections are in June.
The Democratic party (PD), the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the Golkar Party (the reformed business-oriented party which ruled under Soeharto) are likely to sweep the polls with at least 22 , 16 and 14 percent, respectively, of the votes, with 25 percent still undecided.
The secular parties are way out in front, but none of them are strong enough to go it alone. The growing Democratic Party of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono looks set to carry the day, in the general and presidential elections, based on a track record of improved economic and financial management, and effective action against corruption.
Perhaps with different leaders and tactics the Islamic parties could have mobilized 20 to 25 percent of the votes for common political purposes to compete with and even overtake the leading secular party. But only a miracle can do that this time.
terrylacey2003@yahoo.co.uk

drterry@c4d-info.org

Terry Lacey is a development economist who writes from Jakarta on modernization in the Muslim world, investment and trade relations with the EU and Islamic banking.
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