Asif Haroon Raja

Somalia is located in the Horn of Africa and is bordered by Djibouti to northwest, Kenya on its southwest, the Gulf of Aden at its east, and Ethiopia to the west. It gained independence from Italy on July 01, 1960 when Italian Somaliland and British Somaliland joined together to form the new nation of Somalia. Following a series of sectarian and clan clashes, a 1969 coup headed by Mohamed Siad Barre ushered in an authoritarian socialist rule. He managed to impose a degree of stability in the country for two decades. With the regime’s overthrow early in 1991 following CIA sponsored coup, Somalia descended into turmoil, factional fighting, and anarchy. Warlord Mehdi's failure to share power with another equally powerful warlord Farah Adid became the main cause of clan infighting. Since then, Somalia has been functioning without a national functioning government and the country has been torn apart by warring clans and their militias. Hundreds of thousands have died as a result of the conflict and famine and Somalia is viewed as a failed state. Somalia is almost 98% Muslims but most are moderates. The Islamists are now at the verge of taking over power for the second time and the current transitional government backed by USA and Ethiopia which is confined to Mogadishu only will collapse, just as 13 previous transitional governments did. The first takeover by the Islamists led by Islamic Courts Union (ICU) was a very brief one for six months in 2006, viewed as the most peaceful periods in modern Somalia history. The ICU regime was toppled by US inspired Ethiopian invasion in December 2006 and reverting Somalia to chaos and anarchy.

The Islamists remained united throughout their struggle and succeeded in gaining control over most of Somali territory. By early 2008, CIA managed to draw cleavages between the hard-line and moderate Islamists. An anti-terrorism alliance backed by Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and Ethiopian troops was pitched against radical Al-Shabab and its affiliates. However, Al-Shabab continued with its hit and run attacks and it achieved a major victory by capturing third largest city of Kismayo on 22 August 2008 . Thereon, it succeeded in over running important coastal cities like Marka and Baraare in November and made further gains in Gedo and Galgudud provinces. Seizure of these cities which were under the control of other clans and imposition of harsh laws accentuated fighting between the hardliners and moderates duly fuelled by CIA to weaken the movement. Fighting climaxed when Al-Shabab forces tried to take the town of Guri Ceel in Galgudud, but their efforts were thwarted by Ayr clan and Ahl al-Sunnah wa al Jamaa militias and forces aligned with Alliance for Re-liberation of Somalia-Asmara. But takeover of Baidoa by Al-Shabab militia on 26 January 2009 was a huge setback to western backed regime. The anti-terrorism alliance created by warlords and businessmen reportedly funded by CIA failed to create any impact.

In the wake of worsening security situation in Somalia , Ethiopia pulled out all its troops by 26 January 2009 , which has made TFG vulnerable. Plagued by fighting and one million people rendered homeless, even basic needs for survival like food, water, shelter have become extremely scarce. Sea-piracy in Gulf of Aden off Somalia Coast has added a new dimension to infighting in Somalia . There have been 124 incidents of piracy off Somalia in 2008 and 60 successful hijacks. A total of 42 ships have been hijacked and nearly 240 crewmen and 14 ships are still being held hostage along the coast including Ukrainian ship, Turkish ship and Chinese vessel. Rampant piracy has earned the buccaneers millions of dollars in ransom. Saudi super tanker Sirius Star with 2 million barrels of oil worth $100 million and 25-member crew heading towards Somali port of Eyl was released on 10 January after paying ransom but the pirates carrying the $3 million ransom in a boat got drowned. On the same day another cargo ship belonging to Iran carrying 30,000 tons of wheat was also released. It had been captured on 18 November off Somalia coast in Gulf of Aden when it was moving towards port Bandar Abbas from Hong Kong. The daring incidents of sea-piracy in quick succession has stunned US high command and other oil-dependent nations and has forced many countries to change route from Suez Canal to send their ships around the southern Africa. UNSC took a serious note and authorized strong action against the pirates. The EU launched an anti-piracy operation in second week of December 2008 with warships and aircraft from USA , Russia , UK , France , Greece , Spain and China . Indian naval ships too joined the fray but succeeded only in sinking a fishing trawler with 16 crewmen on 18 November. German warship foiled a hijack attempt on Egyptian bulk carrier on 25 December. On 15 January two Chinese warships and an Indian submarine reportedly faced off during an anti-piracy mission off coast of Somalia in the waters near Bab Al-Mandab Strait . The Indian sub stalked the Chinese warships and they were locked in a tense stand off for about half an hour. The stand off ended when Indian vessel left without further confrontation. Japan has ordered its navy to prepare for employment off Somalia coast. EU task force has now taken over the responsibility of patrolling off the Horn of Africa from NATO ships. A flotilla of 14 ships has been assembled to confront the challenge. Japan has also ordered two warships to join anti-piracy mission. Neighbors of Somalia are keen to see stability return in Somalia and sea-piracy brought under control by the government.

What is happening in strategic Horn of Africa is not a simple case of piracy. The pirates believed to be numbering 1200 former fishermen and coast guards, mostly from Somalia prey on a key maritime route leading to Suez Canal . They are getting bolder, wilier and richer.

It raises many questions about the capabilities and equipment of outlaws operating in deep sea, numbering not more than 1200, who are seeking ransom. Massive ransoms have brought rapid development to former fishing villages off Somalia coast. Estimates are that over $150 million booty has been collected by the pirates till end 2008 and many among them own beachside hotels. There is something more than what the eye could see. Analysts are openly accusing Israel of sponsoring piracy off Somalia waters with the aim of transforming Red Sea into a Jewish lake. The immediate objective of USA , Israel and European countries is to prevent the inflow of arms to Islamist Al-Shabab that is on the verge of snatching power in Somalia and to steal Arab oil. Sea piracy has been blown up into a big threat to oil supplies to the west, Japan , China and others in order to internationalize the issue. Internationalization of security in Red Sea is being done under the pretext of fighting piracy to safeguard critical seal lanes and choke point of Suez Canal with the help of a combined multi-national naval force.

Over 14 countries have already joined the counter-piracy force in extreme southern Indian Ocean . Sooner than later, Israel would be asked to take control of this flotilla because of its easy access to the area of concern and its acquired skills to deal with terrorism. The idea is to deprive Arabs dominance in the Red Sea and to control Suez Canal . Yemen , Egypt , Jordan , Sudan , Djibouti , Eritrea , Somalia , Saudi Arabia and Israel bordering Red Sea are faced with danger of their exclusive domain coming under the dominance of external powers. Indian Navy is gradually expanding its presence in Indian Ocean as a medium naval power with the active assistance of USA . Considering Indo-Israeli-US alignment, this will have grave ramifications on geo-economics for all the littoral states of Indian Ocean.

—The writer is a retired Brig and a researcher and a defence analyst.

Source: Pakistan Observer

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