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Somalia’s Future? After Somaliland’s Independence
The future of Somaliland rests in hands of its people, and we know that Somalilanders voted for independence on 18th May 1991 followed by referendum. The Somalilanders winded up any future reunion with failed state of Somalia, according to them. However, the future of Somalia remains uncertain, shaky and undetermined
The country is run by traditional rival country– Ethiopia, which suffered from Somali invasion twice in less than two decades. Somalia, under leadership of Dictator Mohammed Siyad implemented policy of bringing the Somali-speakers under one government. This ideology led him to go war with Ethiopia and dispute with Kenya.
In 17th and 18th Century, Muslims of Ethiopia and Somalia, led by Somalis and Arabs fought against Christian Ethiopian emperors to establish Islamic state called ´ADAL´. The famous city of Harar was named the capital city of ADAL.
The founder of ADAL Ahmed Guray, who was an Arabian with his real name Ahmed Al-Ghazali, led the Somalis and Muslims to win over the Ethiopian emperor, and liberated more than eighty percent of current Ethiopian territories.
This angered the traditional Ethiopian orthodox leaders, who later labeled Somalis as their main enemy and seek help from Portugal against ADAL Forces. Later, the Portugal army defeated the Muslims and Ahmed Guray was killed in the war.
In 19th Century, Somali dictator Mohammed Siyad went war with Ethiopia in 1964 and 1977, and occupied many parts of Ethiopia. After Ethiopia failed to stop the Somalis, they asked military support from Russia and Cuba. The alliance of Ethiopia, Cuba and Russia forced the Somali army to withdraw from Ethiopian territories completely.
Today, as part of U.S. War on terror, Ethiopia and the West keep their eyes on Somalis, particularly Islamic Court who declared Jihad against Ethiopia. Some Islamic Courts leaders are Al-Qaeda associates and carries out guerrilla fighting against Ethiopian forces in Mogadishu.
Reliable sources reported “there is Somalis working with Al-Qaeda inside Somalia and even are very close allies of Osama Bin Laden.”
Today, the long-term enemy of Ethiopia is under its own control, so the question is, will Ethiopia withdraw from Somalia, and let the Somalis elect their own leadership? The answer is NO. Ethiopia wants to keep leaders like Abdullah Ahmed, who is willing to protect his post at expense of everything in Somalia, and carry out Ethiopian interest in Somalia.
Recent, analysis showed that Ethiopia achieved milestone of securing its interest in the region, and Prime Minister Melez Zenawi received honor from the Ethiopian Orthodox Church in his military campaign in Somalia, in order to end existence of the traditional foe of Ethiopia – the Somalis.
Their dreams come true! Ethiopia to rule Mogadishu! Also, Ethiopian Military General in Mogadishu slapped twice on the face of the shaky President Abdullah Ahmed. Ethiopia gets moral and financial support of U.S. and Israel as part of ´War on terror´ to eliminate the terror in the Horn of Africa.
The fall of Somalia:
Why Somalia failed?! The answer is that Dictator Mohammed Siyad was the man responsible of this failure; he was ignorant, unethical and immoral. His ignorance let the future of Somalia and that of East African Muslims into unknown. Somalia, was the strongest East African Islamic state, which could have help other Muslims in the region to win their rights under Christian governments like Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda.
We, know, Sudan is another Islamic country in the region, but internal problems and different culture and believes complicated the Sudan situation. Somalia is 100% Muslim, Sunni, Shaafi and even all speak one language and share similar color. That is the difference between Sudan and Somalia.
The west Christian missionaries support the southern Sudanese against the government in Khartoum for only one reason ´they are Christians´. They teach the southern Sudanese the hatred of Muslims and Arabs. They teach that Arabs and Muslims are their enemies. So, we can say Sudan is in middle of internal war.
About the recent conflict in Kenya, it was tribal violence, and similar to that destroyed Somalia 17 years ago. The question is, are the Kenyans more smart and intelligent than Somalis to solve their differences? Or there is hidden power solving their problems?
We know, Kenya is mainly Christian land, and it is not stubborn Christian nation like Zimbabwe. They accept the instructions of the west, and receive aid and support. They defined their identity according western description. All these characters, won this east African country support of the west.
Former U.N Secretary General and U.S. Secretary of State rushed to Nairobi, Kenya to solve the differences between the Kenyans. U.S President and UK Prime Minister called immediate end of the inter-fighting.
In other hand, no UN or US officials visited Mogadishu or even put pressure on Siyad Barre to leave the office, instead the international community watched the collapse of Somalia. The first international community involvement in Somalia conflict came after two years. Because, they simply had don't have religious or political or economical interest in Somalia unlike Kenya with its religious links with the west.
At the same time, the fall of Somalia will boost the security of Ethiopian Christian government. So, the collapse of Somalia had many advantages to the west and Christian world.
Recently, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, submitted draft pill to the Ethiopian Parliament giving them to select between two options, first option, to withdraw the forces completely from Somalia, or, second, to take control militarily the entire regions of Somalia.
Meles, who is very clever in politics, is planning to pressure the parliament to support his plans to wipe out Somalia from the map. He, clearly, knows that the parliament won’t tell him to withdraw from Somalia because the parliament know, that danger will follow them to Addis Ababa, instead will accept his second option.
Today, every Somali-speaker and Muslim can see the illegal Ethiopian activities in Somalia, supported by his henchman Abdullah Ahmed and other mercenaries.
I Swear to Allah, Meles is planning to wipe Somalia out of the map, and merge both Ethiopia and Somalia under leadership of Addis Ababa. I can say, Somalia will fall seriously today and will not come back again.
Somaliland will get its independence from Somalia after Britain in 1960, because Somaliland democracy gives the final decision to the people of Somaliland. We know, Somalilanders voted for their independence in 1991, and personally, I believe that Somalis, who are under Ethiopian occupation, should recognize Somaliland, in order to save this Somali and Muslim country.
Today the problem of Somalia is like cancer, and one need to cut off the affected part before it spread to other parts.
Somaliland is the healthy Somali part, and people decided to go alone, as they feel save to be their own. Somaliland lost trust in Somalia after bombing and destruction that reduced major Somaliland cities to dust and killed more then 100,000 innocent people by Somali National Army and Air Forces.
Somalilanders are Somali people, and also part of East African Islamic Community. If Somaliland survives from current disturbances and occupation in Somalia, then remember, you saved some Somali and Muslim people.
As analyzer, I recommend, the Southern Somalis to work on removing the Ethiopians out of their country regardless of the mechanism and procedures they utilize.
In the future, one day, the Somalis will come together and unite and win against the Christian crusaders. The win belongs to Muslims and Somalis are part of Muslims. Insha Allah, The power of east African Muslims will come back again.
However, it is too dangerous to put other parts of Somalia into the danger and occupation that shadowed Mogadishu. We know, Somalis in Somaliland and Djibouti are the only free Somali-speaking areas today, as other three parts – NFD, Eastern Region of Ethiopia and Italian Somalia – are under foreign occupation.
We hope the power, which will save Somalia come from these two free parts.
By Abdulaziz Al-Mutairi