There are two ways of interpreting the results of the Upper House’s (Guurti) vote to extend the president’s term in office for six months. The first way to interpret it is that this is just a continuation of the old nefarious practice of scratch my back and I will scratch your back between the president and the Upper House whereby every time the president’s term in office expires, the Upper House springs into action and automatically extends it; and every time the Upper House’s term in office expires, the president would return the favor and extend their term. Somalilanders who are getting sick and tired of this naked and often repeated reciprocal exchange of favors by the President and the Upper House “ii kordhi aan kuu kordhiyo”.
The second way to look at it is that the closeness of the vote (42 for the extension, 35 against it), in spite of the government’s use of government resources to induce some of the Upper House members to vote for the extension of its stay in office, and in spite of the fact that the current members of the Upper House owe their positions to the government’s extension of their term, is a clear indication of deep dissatisfaction with the President even among those who once were his closest allies. In other words, there is something new here, and that thing is: President Dahir Rayale Kahin is very vulnerable and is likely to lose the election. From what we know of the current mood of the electorate, we think the second interpretation is closer to the mark, which means the opposition parties (Kulmiye and Ucid) would serve their interests and that of the electorate best by focusing their energies on making sure that the presidential election does take place in May.

 

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