By
Jerry Okungu & Said Ibrahim Hussein (Bunna)
Hargeisa, Somaliland
April 13, 2009
Said Ibrahim Hussein is a young and promising journalist from
war-torn Somalia. Chaotic as Somalia is, Hussein, nicknamed BUUNA is
as enterprising as any young man in Somalia cab be. Instead of
taking an AK 47 to the streets to terrorize fellow countrymen or
fight other warlords’ wars, Bunna has decided to use his intellect.
Instead of hijacking ships in the high seas for
overnight wealth, Bunna is busy building personal news websites and
yu-tubes in this chaotic country. And thanks to the generosity of
Care International that took him to Kenya for further training in
2008 and now in Somaliland, Bunna is a proud owner of a fairly
up-market laptop that can make him do wonders with the new media.
In one of his websites I came across after talking to him, Bunna
argues that the outside world does not really understand the murky
waters of the Somali conflict. He argues that the war will continue
until vested interests both inside and outside Somalia come to their
senses.
He says that the tragic war of Somalia that continues to claim
innocent lives and suffering to thousands of women and children has
inside players, outside actors and two victims. He defines the two
victims as the Somali people and their lawless country.
For him, the inside players include warlords, religious extremists,
the unpopular and unelected Transitional Federal Governments, clan
supremacists and business opportunists out to cash in on the war.
To sustain the conflict between these inside players, vested
interest groups from the international community have not made
things any better. This category includes the regime of Meles Zenawi
of Ethiopia, the misguided American policy of interventionism, the
helplessness of the Arab League, the indifference of the European
Union and the African Union, the Somalia UN employees based in
Nairobi, the IGAD member states, specifically the meddling in
Somalia affairs by Ethiopia, Djibouti and Kenya and those that have
caused piracy to take root on Somali coast.
Bunna, like most Somalis in the region believes that these high
stakes players have succeeded in one thing; to "light fire then add
fuel and firewood around the Somali victims and their troubled
country". However, he believes that not all actors understand what
is wrong with Somalia or the consequences of their actions.
According to Bunna, the Somali drama gets complicated by constant
and calculated Zenawi interventions. He believes that the Zenawi
regime has two goals to achieve in Somalia for the Ethiopian leader.
First, they see Zenawi’s regional and long term interests. On this
front, the turmoil in Sudan has inadvertently played a part.
Because Sudan is embroiled in its own internal strife UN and
international pressure is mounting on El Bashir to either end the
Darfur conflict or face the Hague trial for crimes and against
humanity among other charges. For this reason, Zenawi regime now
sees itself as the only remaining viable super power in the Horn of
Africa. And it has proved to the UN, USA and the AU that it can play
that role by sending Peace Keeping troops to Somalia under the AU
umbrella in the recent past.
Secondly, Zenawi sees Somalia as a state that should permanently
dependend on Ethiopia. For Somalia to do this, it should be weak
militarily, politically disorganized and geographically dismembered
into smaller states like Somaliland, Somalia, Puntland and Jubaland.
Unfortunately, most Somalis seem to suspect that Kenya is backing
this Ethiopian expansionist strategy.
Bunna has the opinion that if Meles Zenawi is to fulfill his
expansionist ambition in the Horn of Africa, his plan and tactics
should ensure that every Somali Transition Government fails. In so
doing, he will ensure that all warring factions including Al- Shabab
get enough military hardware to sustain the conflict. At the same
time, the Ethiopian regime will also arm the Transitional Federal
Government and the Sharif group. In the meantime, Meles will make
sure that all Somali factions continue to view one another with
suspicion to make dialogue impossible.
A good example here was when Ethiopia immediately lauded President
Sharif Ahmed knowing full well that such public acknowledgement of
Sharif would elicit immediate condemnation from Dahir Aways, Dr.
Omar Iman, Abu-Mansor and other warlords.
The Ethiopian regime is well aware that if it fuels the internal
strife among factions in Somalia, there will be more casualties
there even among the TFG soldiers to the extent that in future
conflicts with Ethiopia, they would be no match for the Ethiopian
military.
His ultimate goal is to make the Sharif regime fail the way Abdulahi
Yusuf’s regime failed despite his “support”.
Once Somalia is permanently embroiled in chaos and lawlessness
culminating in piracy on international waters as is the case now,
the Ethiopian regime will turn around and convince the European
Union, the United States and the AU of the danger to international
peace paused by Somalia. Then he will get the nod and resources to
invade and occupy Somalia.
The Eritrean factor:
Eritreans as a people would like to help the Somali government in
general. They understand the ways of Somalis and their country’s
situation. They know the Somalis and their government helped them
during their 30 years of war against the brutal Ethiopian regimes.
Their interest in Somalia is to perpetuate the Somali conflict so
that there is always a potential threat from Somalia to Ethiopia to
counterbalance the Ethiopian permanent aggression against Eritrea.
In their interest, any government that comes in Somalia must at
least befriend Eritrea or at worst not to befriend an Ethiopian
regime, especially the current one.
The Sharia law factor:
The Al-Shabab Group that is currently waging war on Sharif’s
government argues that they want the full application of the Sharia
law in Somalia. This makes the regime led by Sharif be in a
difficult situation due to internal factors and external pressure.
The likelihood of Sharif regime collapsing is therefore very high.
The fact of the matter is; Sharif’s regime does not have any problem
adopting Sharia law in Somalia since the Council of Ministers had
approved the same recently. It is the Al- Shabab’s version or their
own interpretation that is in contention.
The Al-Shabab group:
This group is ideologically driven, stringent in their application
of Islam and does not permit difference of opinion that Islam
entertains. It would appear like they are misusing the Islamic
Religion to serve their own ambitions and interests. And to ensure
their opinion prevails, they have resorted to eliminating a good
number of religious scholars that are opposed to their views. The
latest such victims were the two scholars killed in Galkaio and
Beledweyn provinces. These extremists have gone to the extent of
peaceful worshippers at Mowlid festivals in mosques. Such callous
murders of the innocent faithfuls recently took place Bardheere and
other parts of Somalia. This was despite the fact that a recent
religious scholars meeting in Mogadishu had clearly stated that
there is no religious proof that allows any group to kill Muslims
simply because such Muslims have expressed a different opinion or
offered an acceptable interpretation of the Islamic Hadith.
African forces in Somalia:
Scholars at the Mogadishu conference stated that Islam did not allow
Somalis to attack the Peace Keeping forces because they were invited
into the country in the first place and had a clear timetable when
they would depart. Despite this assurance, the Al- Shabab militia
still invaded the African Peace Keeping base causing high civilian
casualties at a time when the Ethiopian forces had left the country.
The government of Sharif:
This government is composed of two factions; the remnants of
Abdulahi Yusuf’s TFG and the Union of Islamic Courts- the Djibouti
branch. The regime’s task is to untangle the complex web of the
Somali conflict. This mission may prove impossible if Sharif does
not handle the problem with caution and decisiveness.
Where is Somalia heading to?
It all depends on how Somalis themselves will accommodate one
another, forgive each other and hold hands together as brothers and
sisters, fathers and mothers, leaders and citizens. If they can
discuss their issues peacefully without resorting to the grenade or
bazooka, there is hope for the failed state.
Currently there are more than 3 million Somalis facing starvation.
There are thousands of widows and orphaned children in every Somali
city. There is no need for there is no need for this war to go on
now. All other groups and especially the Al Shabab group should
understand this basic logic.
jerryokungu@gmail.com
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