By Paul J. Sullivan
Dr. Sullivan is a professor at the National Defense University and
Georgetown University, and is an expert on international energy and
security issues, and the economics and politics of North Africa,
part of sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East. All opinions
expressed are those of the author.
The US Navy is clearly deserving of kudos for saving Captain
Phillips of the Maersk Alabama in the treacherous waters off of
Somalia. Maybe this is a sign for a new phase in the world’s
relations with the pirates off the non-country of Somalia. One might
have the whimsical feeling to call this “gunboat diplomacy,” but how
can you have diplomatic relations with a state that does not exist.
Will gunboat diplomacy work?
Somalia has been a grating problem for the world for many decades.
It will likely be a grinding problem for the world for years to
come. When Italian Somaliland merged with British Somaliland there
may have been some hope for a real state to have existed in this
crucially strategic area. However, the clans and the outside world
did a great job of fracturing this country into a humpty dumpty of a
failed state.
Piracy has been considerably reduced in the Malacca and Singapore
Straits. However, Indonesia, Singapore, and Malaysia are functioning
states. The joint actions of these countries, and their actions with
Japan, Thailand the US and others have had significant successes.
There are over-flights with the “eye in the sky.” Their respective
police forces, navies, and other security services work together on
the piracy issue.
There is a joint intelligence center to track information on the
straits and on the people and groups who are involves in piracy and
similar activities. When pirates are caught in the straits there are
real courts and real judges to deal with them, and they can be
handed over to real governments.
The situation in Indonesia is the weakest of the three on the rule
of law and security services corruption, which explains why most
piracy events that are reported in the straits are in Indonesian
waters, but even Indonesia has come a very long way in dealing with
the situation of piracy and related activities on land and on the
waters.
Piracy can be best controlled by eyes, ears and actions on land, as
much as on the water. If there is no security infrastructure on the
land and on the waters then not really much can be accomplished.
Somali has no security infrastructure that works on land. It has no
viable navy or coast guard. It has no rule of law. Somalia’s
neighbors are also lacking in some capacity to handle the pirates
and the control of piracy. The strongest of its neighbors on this
issue is Kenya, but its maritime security infrastructure is limited.
The US is working with Kenya on this, but the government has a long
way to go. It will take some time to see any real, if limited,
successes from such joint activities. Kenya has its own very
difficult internal problems, including a governing coalition that
seems more like a frayed cardigan than a seamless tent of many
tribes that it needs to be. However, Kenya has some in its
leadership who are very keen to build up and improve its maritime
and shoreline security systems, not only to reduce the piracy
threat, but to reduce the threat of terrorist and other criminal
infiltrations, and to get some control over smugglers.
Yemen, located to the north of Somalia across the Gulf of Aden, has
almost no coast guard and a tiny navy, and has its own internal
security issues as well as increasing instability. It also has a
vast problem of internal corruption at many levels. The most
important networks of smuggling of people, drugs, weapons and more
to and from Somalia go via Yemen. Part of the Somalia problem can be
found in the security and other weaknesses of Yemen.
Djibouti, next door to Somalia, is a small state with very limited
resources. It has come a long way in establishing good governance
and a rule of law, but still it has even more to go. Djibouti has
the benefits of having a US military presence to reduce the risks to
its state and waters from piracy, but then it covers a relatively
tiny area compared to the empty vastness of Somalia. There have been
some recent attempts on cargo, chemical and other ships off the
shores of Djibouti, and this is not a good sign.
However, most of the attacks and attempted attacks on ships in the
Gulf of Aden are actually closer to Yemen than even northern
Somalia. Some of the more publicized attacks of the super tanker
Sirius Star and the Mearsk Alabama were far off the coast of Kenya.
There is not going to be a real and effective government and legal
system in Somalia to handle the issue of piracy any time soon. It
could take decades, if we are lucky. However, there are real chances
of building up some such capacities in Yemen, Djibouti and Kenya.
The real security diplomacy will have to reside in efforts with
these neighbors of Somalia for years to come.
But there will likely be many more events like what happened with
the brave crew and captain of the Mearsk Alabama recently. The US
Navy and other military and security services will be called upon
time and time again.
This will begin to end when the legal, administrative and security
nets are mended and tightened in the entire region. This will take a
large coalition of efforts, and will need a very large buy-in from
the neighboring states. Until this works we will see more gunboat
diplomacy, but what will really work is moving the entire area
forward through economic diplomacy, legal diplomacy, and
administrative diplomacy at very high levels and with some real,
intensive and extensive efforts on the parts of many. If that is not
done the future captains and crews going through this area may not
be so lucky as those of the Maersk Alabama. The Navy might not be as
lucky as it was this time. Oil, chemical and other cargos going
through this area will continue to be at great risk. Also, there may
be more political pressure in the US and elsewhere to have a land
invasion of Somalia. And that will not solve anything, and may make
things far worse
History News Network - Apr 15, 2009
