Dr. Terry Lacey

Development Economist

Recently in Jakarta we were treated to a wonderful fantasy world on ice which whirled into action when global US live entertainment mega impresario Feld Entertainment, defying the global downturn, put on Disney on Ice presents a Princess of Wishes on a specially built ice rink, complete with Aladdin, magic lamp and genie.

When the US puts on a show, it knows how to do it. A brilliant professional job with all the props and preparations.  

But now in the Middle East peace process the US and the EU are skating on thin ice and risk foundering in fantasy. They need Aladdin and a genie to grant them three wishes.

First, that the majority or Israelis and Palestinians will support an early push towards comprehensive and conclusive peace talks. But they will not.

Second, that they will support the twin state solution with a Palestinian state alongside Israel. But most Israelis, and possibly most Palestinians, are now inclined against this.

Third, that the US and EU will take a fresh look at the Middle East peace process and learn to swim with the tide of history, instead of splashing away against it.

There is no genie with enough genius to do all these three things. But perhaps the last wish can be granted.

This is not the right time to push the boat out on the twin state. If it is pushed out, it will sink.

It is much harder to refloat a sunk boat, than to pull a beached boat back into the sea.

And make no mistake, right now the comprehensive peace talks and the twin state are beached and out of the water.

Aladdin on ice in Jakarta, knowing Indonesia well, warned that using one of your three wishes to wish for three more wishes is really wishful thinking!

However we need a flexible genie who can grant us three modest but complicated wishes:

First, the genie must find interim solutions so that the blockade of Gaza, still being continued by Israel, the West and Egypt, can be lifted so that reconstruction can begin. This requires a compromise with Hamas.

Second, the genie has to see if reconciliation between Fatah and  Hamas is possible, what institutional form it could take, and how this could be legitimized by elections. But the genie knows this may not be possible right now.

Third, the genie must accept the reality of the new Israeli government and stop trying to force upon it, or upon the Palestinians, steps or solutions to which they are opposed. 

This means going with the regional economic and political cooperation option, with Syria and the neighbors, setting new parameters for relations with Palestine, whilst improving the Palestinian-Israeli modus operandi, especially on economic co-operation.

Our fresh Middle East starting point is clear.

Israel presides over a political and economic entity comprising about ten million people, roughly half Jewish and half Arab.

The Jewish half have full citizenship and the Arab half do not, either because they have second class citizenship in Israel, since full citizenship should mean full rights and full responsibilities, or because they are under military occupation, or in enclaves surrounded by Israeli troops, or technically annexed into Israel, as with East Jerusalem.

There are three choices for Israeli-Palestinian arrangements: (i) the twin state solution (ii) a confederation of states (iii) a unitary state with federalism or Swiss-style cantons.

The longer these choices are left, the less likely the twin state.

Palestine needs elections and a way forward. The wise man builds his house upon the rocks. There is no lasting peace without consent and legitimacy. Israel needs to admit to itself and the world what it really wants. The US and EU need a fresh start and to break with the Bush legacy. The tide of history may have already turned against the twin state.

Terry Lacey is a development economist who writes from Jakarta on modernization in the Muslim world, investment and trade relations with the EU and Islamic banking.

terrylacey2003@yahoo.co.uk  

drterry@c4d-info.org

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