Gamal Nkrumah examines political prospects in Somalia after Islamists issued the government five days to surrender

Hardline Islamist fighters exchange gunfire with government forces in Mogadishu. The fighting broke out in the south Mogadishu district of Karan this week after Somali government forces tried to retake positions previously lost to insurgent fighters of the Shabab Islamist movement and Hezbul-Islam opposed to the Somali government. Nearly 250 people including senior Somali government officials were killed and more than 200,000 Mogadishu residents have been displaced in the last two months of intense confrontations between the internationally recognized government and insurgents of Shabab and Hezbul-Islam who control much of southern and central regions of the war-wrecked Horn of Africa country

"All on the apostate government soldiers who are in the frontline of the battle to surrender to the Islamists and hand over all their weapons," Sheikh Mokhtar Abu Zubeir, a leader of Shabab (Youth) or to use its proper name, the Mujahideen Youth Movement, exhorted the troops of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somali President Sheikh Sherif Sheikh Ahmed. The president declined to comment, but the TFG Minister of Defense Yusuf Mohamed Siyad Indhaade, while confirming the televised threat, insisted that the government would not be moved by such "empty threats". He denied Shabab claims that Somalis are embracing the Islamist militias ideology. He calmed the fears of the TFG supporters and he claimed that the TFG troops have enough military clout to trounce the Shabab's Islamist militias. "The government soldiers will not lay down their weapons," the minister of defense boasted.

What is clear is that the militant Islamists of Somalia have moved deftly into alignment with the country's people.

The problem with the Somali president is that he failed to make good on pre-election hints of a compromise president. He should remember that the success of his presidency is built on his reputation for restraint. He was one of the leaders of the Islamic Courts Union, but he is now widely seen as betraying their cause and indeed, the irony is that his fellow sheikhs are now threatening him with prosecution by Sharia Courts (ICU). He needs, in any case, to work with militant groups such as the Shabab if he is to remain a political force to be reckoned with in the country. And, that now will not be easy.

The militant Islamists of Somalia have ossified into something of a xenophobic sulk. The Islamists are about to take over. That could really break Somalia's traditional ties with its predominantly non-Islamic neighbors -- Kenya and Ethiopia.

Grim images of Black Hawk Down still haunt the American and Western psyche. Besides, the administration of US President Barack Obama seems to have had a change of heart as far as Washington's traditional Somali policy is concerned.

"Given the long-standing enmity between Somalis and Ethiopians, I will encourage the Ethiopians not to re-engage in Somalia," John Carson, US assistant secretary of state for African Affairs warned Ethiopia of interfering in Somali affairs. Ironically, it was the US that had in the past egged the Ethiopians on to send their troops into Somalia. US-supported Ethiopian troops invaded Somalia in December 2006, ousting the ICU, which then included both President Sherif Sheikh Ahmed and his arch-rival Sheikh Dhaher Aweis, the outspoken militant leader of Al-Hizb Al-Islami. Ethiopia has no qualms about crushing the Islamist forces in Somalia, but it has come to realize that it cannot do so. When the ICU was being put together, the Ethiopians tried their best to undermine the movement with the backing of then US administration of George W Bush. Then the Ethiopians tried hard to garner support among moderates. Today, the moderates among the Islamists have been extensively purged.

The hatred for the Ethiopian invaders outweighed emotive and divisive issues such as working with the Ethiopians to resolve Somalia's political problems. Aweis has been embraced by many of his long-suffering people. His is not only a personal victory but a huge stride forward for Somalia's militant Islamists. They have come out decisively for democracy, Islamic-style.

The crucial problem at the moment is the humanitarian disaster that the war in Somalia engendered. More than 3.5 million Somalis are threatened with famine and destitution. The war resulted in a mass exodus from the Somali capital Mogadishu and the humanitarian situation is worse in areas such as south central Somalia where the Islamists hold sway. The autonomous regions in the north of the country -- Puntland in the northeast and Somaliland in the northwest -- are relatively less threatened by famine. The most pressing problem at the moment as far as ordinary Somalis are concerned is to try and feed the hungry, shelter the homeless, and bring back a semblance of normalcy to the lives of the Somali people.

Source: Al-Ahram Weekly

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