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September 17, 2009: The Somali pirates are having a harder time because
of the 25-30 foreign warships patrolling their coast. The warships
interfere with attacks, and have arrested 110 pirates and jailed them in
Kenya (where lawyers, diplomats and judges argue over how to prosecute
them). There are now about as many merchant sailors held by the pirates
in northern Somalia, on four ships. In the last two months, only one
ship has been taken, although 13 were attacked. So far this year, 28
ships have been taken. But the warships have adapted faster than the
pirates. The warships aggressively go after any speedboats with armed
men in them. These are increasingly halted, disarmed and, if any of the
men had fired on a warship, all the pirates are arrested and shipped off
to jail in Kenya. It's become harder to be a pirate.
The two statelets that comprise northern Somalia, Puntland and
Somaliland, have been coming apart over the last two years. Both are
squabbling, and sometimes shooting, over possession of the Sool region,
that lies astride their border. Both sides claim it, and both are
willing to fight for it. The dispute has been going on since Puntland
was formed in 1998, and declared they controlled the Sool because the
inhabitants belonged to a Puntland tribe. Somaliland based their claim
on borders drawn by the colonial governments of Italy and Britain a
century ago. Years of negotiations have not settled anything. Meanwhile,
both statelets have been coming apart because of internal problems.
Despite that, northern Somalia has been better governed since breaking
away from Somalia in the 1990 to form Puntland (2.5 million people) and
Somaliland (3.5 million). The other two-thirds of the Somali population
to the south, has been in perpetual chaos since 1990. But now, the
tribal (clan) agreements that brought peace, and created the two
governments, have unraveled. Somaliland is sliding towards civil war,
while Puntland has been split between those who back (and profit from)
the pirates, and those that don't. The result is no power that can stop
the pirates.
British officials believe that up to a hundred British Moslems (nearly
all young men, not all of Somali ancestry) have travelled to Somalia in
the past year. There, the travelers often receive terrorist training,
and some have returned to Britain. Al Shabaab is also recruiting among
Moslems in northern Kenya. Only ten percent of Kenyans are Moslem, and
most of these are ethnic Somalis and Arabs living in the north and along
the coast. There has always been tension between the majority of
Kenyans, who are black Africans and non-Moslem, and the Moslem
minorities. The growth of terrorism among young Moslems in Kenya has
exacerbated these tensions.
The September 14th U.S. commando operation that killed five al Qaeda
terrorists in southern Somalia, required pretty precise intelligence to
carry off. It's known that al Shabaab is increasingly unpopular in
southern Somalia, where the group has imposed a strict form of Islamic
law (Sharia). Apparently, the Americans have plugged into that unrest,
to obtain precise information about terrorist movements.
Ethiopian troops continue to take control of Somali villages just across
the border. This is part of an operation to keep militant Somalis away
from the four million ethnic Somali Ethiopians living in Ogaden
province, just across the border. Somalia has long claimed Ogaden, but
Ethiopia has been strong enough, and tough enough, to hang on to the
place. The Ethiopians have more incentive now that oil has been
discovered in Ogaden. The Ethiopians have let the people in Ogaden, and
Somalia, know that any attempt to grab Ogaden, or disrupt oil
operations, will be met with much violence. While the Somalis have a
reputation for being fierce fighters, the Ethiopians have proved their
equals over the centuries. But when the two fight, it tends to get
nasty.
September 16, 2009: Al Shabaab, on their web site, confirmed that
terrorist leader, Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, had been killed in an American
raid on the 14th. The attack took place along the coast, about 200
kilometers south of Mogadishu. The terrorist group vowed revenge. Nabhan
was wanted for organizing a 2002 bombing of a Kenyan hotel (that killed
15), and attempt to shoot down an airliner, as well as some earlier
attacks. Nabhan is one of five al Qaeda leaders known to be hiding out
in Somalia, and was in charge of training foreign recruits and
integrating them into al Shabaab combat or terrorist units. This
includes suicide bombing operations.
The death of Nabhan, coupled with the yearlong campaign to kill al Qaeda
leaders via UAV missile attacks in Pakistan, has al Qaeda leaders very
upset. It's not just the deaths, as these guys know they are in a
dangerous business, but how the Americans are finding out the details of
terrorists movements. The U.S. won't say, for obvious reasons, how they
are getting the information. It's a combination of electronic
eavesdropping and local informants. That's because, even when al Qaeda
leaders stop using cell phones, the American missiles or commandos still
find them. There must be spies, and it's believed that hundreds of
innocent Pakistanis, Afghans and Somalis have been murdered because it
was suspected that they were spying for the Americans.
September 14, 2009: U.S. commandos (Navy SEALs in two U.S. Army
helicopters flying from U.S. warships offshore) attacked a vehicle
containing the leader of al Shabaab, killing him and five of his
followers. The helicopters landed and the SEALs took bodies and other
items from the shot up car, and then returned to the warship.
September 12, 2009: In Somaliland, three people died when political
demonstrators clashed with police.
September 11, 2009: In Mogadishu, al Shabaab mortar shells fired at the
port area, hit a hospital for disabled veterans of the 1977 war, killing
nine and injuring 19. The victims are generally regarded as national
heroes, and the Islamic radicals refused to comment to the media on the
incident.
Source: Strategy Page - Sep 17, 2009
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